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MfPH – Publications Document1 #701037
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+Citations (129) - CitationsAdd new citationList by: CiterankMapLink[1] Quarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study
Author: Chad R. Wells, Abhishek Pandey, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, William S. Crystal, Burton H. Singer, Seyed M. Moghadas, Alison P. Galvani, Jeffrey P. Townsend Publication date: 2 February 2022 Publication info: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Volume 14, March 2022, 100304 Cited by: David Price 4:18 PM 16 September 2022 GMT Citerank: (1) 715831Diagnostic testing859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100304
| Excerpt / Summary Background: Numerous countries have imposed strict travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to a large socioeconomic burden. The long quarantines that have been applied to contacts of cases may be excessive for travel policy.
Methods: We developed an approach to evaluate imminent countrywide COVID-19 infections after 0–14-day quarantine and testing. We identified the minimum travel quarantine duration such that the infection rate within the destination country did not increase compared to a travel ban, defining this minimum quarantine as “sufficient.”
Findings: We present a generalised analytical framework and a specific case study of the epidemic situation on November 21, 2021, for application to 26 European countries. For most origin-destination country pairs, a three-day or shorter quarantine with RT-PCR or antigen testing on exit suffices. Adaptation to the European Union traffic-light risk stratification provided a simplified policy tool. Our analytical approach provides guidance for travel policy during all phases of pandemic diseases.
Interpretation: For nearly half of origin-destination country pairs analysed, travel can be permitted in the absence of quarantine and testing. For the majority of pairs requiring controls, a short quarantine with testing could be as effective as a complete travel ban. The estimated travel quarantine durations are substantially shorter than those specified for traced contacts. |
Link[2] Charting a future for emerging infectious disease modelling in Canada
Author: Mark A. Lewis, Patrick Brown, Caroline Colijn, Laura Cowen, Christopher Cotton, Troy Day, Rob Deardon, David Earn, Deirdre Haskell, Jane Heffernan, Patrick Leighton, Kumar Murty, Sarah Otto, Ellen Rafferty, Carolyn Hughes Tuohy, Jianhong Wu, Huaiping Zhu Publication date: 26 April 2023 Cited by: David Price 2:31 PM 19 November 2023 GMT
Citerank: (22) 679703EIDM?The Emerging Infectious Diseases Modelling Initiative (EIDM) – by the Public Health Agency of Canada and NSERC – aims to establish multi-disciplinary network(s) of specialists across the country in modelling infectious diseases to be applied to public needs associated with emerging infectious diseases and pandemics such as COVID-19. [1]7F1CEB7, 679761Caroline ColijnDr. Caroline Colijn works at the interface of mathematics, evolution, infection and public health, and leads the MAGPIE research group. She joined SFU's Mathematics Department in 2018 as a Canada 150 Research Chair in Mathematics for Infection, Evolution and Public Health. She has broad interests in applications of mathematics to questions in evolution and public health, and was a founding member of Imperial College London's Centre for the Mathematics of Precision Healthcare.10019D3ABAB, 679769Christopher CottonChristopher Cotton is a Professor of Economics at Queen’s University where he holds the Jarislowsky-Deutsch Chair in Economic & Financial Policy.10019D3ABAB, 679776David EarnProfessor of Mathematics and Faculty of Science Research Chair in Mathematical Epidemiology at McMaster University.10019D3ABAB, 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 679806Jane HeffernanJane Heffernan is a professor of infectious disease modelling in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at York University. She is a co-director of the Canadian Centre for Disease Modelling, and she leads national and international networks in mathematical immunology and the modelling of waning and boosting immunity.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679826Laura CowenAssociate Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Victoria.10019D3ABAB, 679842Mark LewisProfessor Mark Lewis, Kennedy Chair in Mathematical Biology at the University of Victoria and Emeritus Professor at the University of Alberta.10019D3ABAB, 679858Patrick BrownAssociate Professor in the Centre for Global Health Research at St. Michael’s Hospital, and in the Department of Statistical Sciences at the University of Toronto.10019D3ABAB, 679859Patrick LeightonPatrick Leighton is a Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health at the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Montreal, and an active member of the Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health Research Group (GREZOSP) and the Centre for Public Health Research (CReSP). 10019D3ABAB, 679869Rob DeardonAssociate Professor in the Department of Production Animal Health in the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics in the Faculty of Science at the University of Calgary.10019D3ABAB, 679875Sarah OttoProfessor in Zoology. Theoretical biologist, Canada Research Chair in Theoretical and Experimental Evolution, and Killam Professor at the University of British Columbia.10019D3ABAB, 679890Troy DayTroy Day is a Professor and the Associate Head of the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Queen’s University. He is an applied mathematician whose research focuses on dynamical systems, optimization, and game theory, applied to models of infectious disease dynamics and evolutionary biology.10019D3ABAB, 679893Kumar MurtyProfessor Kumar Murty is in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Toronto. His research fields are Analytic Number Theory, Algebraic Number Theory, Arithmetic Algebraic Geometry and Information Security. He is the founder of the GANITA lab, co-founder of Prata Technologies and PerfectCloud. His interest in mathematics ranges from the pure study of the subject to its applications in data and information security.10019D3ABAB, 686724Ellen RaffertyDr. Ellen Rafferty has a Master of Public Health and a PhD in epidemiology and health economics from the University of Saskatchewan. Dr. Rafferty’s research focuses on the epidemiologic and economic impact of public health policies, such as estimating the cost-effectiveness of immunization programs. She is interested in the incorporation of economics into immunization decision-making, and to that aim has worked with a variety of provincial and national organizations.10019D3ABAB, 701020CANMOD – PublicationsPublications by CANMOD Members144B5ACA0, 701071OSN – Publications144B5ACA0, 701222OMNI – Publications144B5ACA0, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 714608Charting a FutureCharting a Future for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling in Canada – April 2023 [1] 2794CAE1, 715387SMMEID – Publications144B5ACA0 URL:
| Excerpt / Summary We propose an independent institute of emerging infectious disease modellers and policy experts, with an academic core, capable of renewing itself as needed. This institute will combine science and knowledge translation to inform decision-makers at all levels of government and ensure the highest level of preparedness (and readiness) for the next public health emergency. The Public Health Modelling Institute will provide cost-effective, science-based modelling for public policymakers in an easily visualizable, integrated framework, which can respond in an agile manner to changing needs, questions, and data. To be effective, the Institute must link to modelling groups within government, who are best able to pose questions and convey results for use by public policymakers. |
Link[3] Dataset of non-pharmaceutical interventions and community support measures across Canadian universities and colleges during COVID-19 in 2020
Author: Haleema Ahmed, Taylor Cargill, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Jude Dzevela Kong Publication date: 17 November 2022 Publication info: Frontiers in Public Health, 10 Cited by: David Price 2:39 PM 19 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.1066654
| Excerpt / Summary [Frontiers in Public Health, 17 November 2022]
In Canada, the first confirmed case of “Coronavirus Disease 2019” (COVID-19), the disease caused by the virus known as “Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-related Coronavirus type 2” (SARS-CoV-2), was reported on January 25, 2020. COVID-19 was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO) only 5 days later, on January 30th, and later a global pandemic on March 11, 2020 (1). Without widespread availability of effective COVID-19 vaccines or treatments in Canada, the government relied on non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures as the primary mitigation strategy for slowing the spread of COVID-19 (2). Canadian post-secondary institutions were faced with the challenge of interpreting the NPI guidance and announcements issued from federal, provincial and local public health authorities as well as decision and policy makers. However, guidance in some regions was regularly revised and/or updated rapidly to reflect the constantly evolving nature of the COVID-19 situation and the gradual accumulation of information on COVID-19 virulence and transmission. Thus, schools were, to some degree, called upon to take an individualized, proactive approach in deciding which NPI decisions to implement and when to implement them (3). In order to address the unique situation of their campus and community, institutions layered multiple COVID-19 mitigation strategies based on what each school deemed necessary for a robust institution-wide response. This process was typically directed by committees composed of university/college leadership, and it involved careful balancing of economic concerns, recommendations by public health authorities, and the needs of students, faculty and staff.
The majority of institutions communicated NPI decisions regularly to their internal student-staff community as well as the wider public through institution websites and social media channels. However, information on the reasoning and context behind these decisions is less typically made public. While studies have been conducted on factors affecting NPI adoption timing for universities in the United States of America, similar research has not been conducted in the context of Canada. Compiling the first dataset on the status and timing of NPI decisions and community support measures made by post-secondary institutions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic is valuable in illuminating for future study, why institutions made certain decisions, how effective these decisions were in containing viral spread, whether these decisions were data-driven and locally-informed, and how these choices intersected with the broader Canadian political and socio-economic landscape of COVID-19. With this aim, this study provides a dataset on the timing of 17 NPI decisions and support measures made by 122 post-secondary institutions throughout the year 2020. |
Link[4] Management of hospital beds and ventilators in the Gauteng province, South Africa, during the COVID-19 pandemic
Author: Mahnaz Alavinejad, Bruce Mellado, Ali Asgary, Mduduzi Mbada,Thuso Mathaha, Benjamin Lieberman, Finn Stevenson, Nidhi Tripathi, Abhaya Kumar Swain, James Orbinski, Jianhong Wu, Jude Dzevela Kong Publication date: 2 November 2022 Publication info: PLOS Global Public Health, 2(11), e0001113 Cited by: David Price 2:44 PM 19 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 685420Hospitals16289D5D4, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001113
| Excerpt / Summary [PLOS Global Public Health, 2 November 2022]
We conducted an observational retrospective study on patients hospitalized with COVID-19, during March 05, 2020, to October 28, 2021, and developed an agent-based model to evaluate effectiveness of recommended healthcare resources (hospital beds and ventilators) management strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Gauteng, South Africa. We measured the effectiveness of these strategies by calculating the number of deaths prevented by implementing them. We observed differ ences between the epidemic waves. The length of hospital stay (LOS) during the third wave was lower than the first two waves. The median of the LOS was 6.73 days, 6.63 days and 6.78 days for the first, second and third wave, respectively. A combination of public and private sector provided hospital care to COVID-19 patients requiring ward and Intensive Care Units (ICU) beds. The private sector provided 88.4% of High care (HC)/ICU beds and 49.4% of ward beds, 73.9% and 51.4%, 71.8% and 58.3% during the first, second and third wave, respectively. Our simulation results showed that with a high maximum capacity, i.e., 10,000 general and isolation ward beds, 4,000 high care and ICU beds and 1,200 ventilators, increasing the resource capacity allocated to COVID- 19 patients by 25% was enough to maintain bed availability throughout the epidemic waves. With a medium resource capacity (8,500 general and isolation ward beds, 3,000 high care and ICU beds and 1,000 ventilators) a combination of resource management strategies and their timing and criteria were very effective in maintaining bed availability and therefore preventing excess deaths. With a low number of maximum available resources (7,000 general and isolation ward beds, 2,000 high care and ICU beds and 800 ventilators) and a severe epidemic wave, these strategies were effective in maintaining the bed availability and minimizing the number of excess deaths throughout the epidemic wave. |
Link[5] Management of Healthcare Resources in the Gauteng Province, South Africa, During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Author: Mahnaz Alavinejad, Bruce Mellado, Ali Asgary, Mduduzi Mbada, Thuso Mathaha, Benjamin Lieberman, Finn Stevenson, Nidhi Tripathi, Abhaya Kumar Swain, James Orbinski, Jianhong Wu, Jude Dzevela Kong Publication date: 15 March 2022 Publication info: SSRN Electronic Journal. Cited by: David Price 2:57 PM 19 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 685420Hospitals16289D5D4, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4049177
| Excerpt / Summary [SSRN, 15 March 2022]
We conducted an observational retrospective study on patients hospitalized with COVID-19, during March 05, 2020, to October 28, 2021, and developed an agent-based model to evaluate effectiveness of recommended healthcare resource management strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Gauteng, South Africa. We measured the effectiveness of these strategies by calculating the number of deaths prevented by implementing them. We observed differences between the epidemic waves. The length of hospital stay (LOS) during the third wave was lower than the first two waves. The median of the LOS, was 6.73 days for the first wave, 6.63 days for the second wave and 6.78 days for the third wave. A combination of public and private sector provided hospital care to COVID-19 patients requiring ward and Intensive Care Units (ICU) beds. The private sector provided 88.4% of High care (HC)/ICU beds and 49.4% of ward beds during the first wave, 73.9% and 51.4% during the second wave, 71.8% and 58.3% during the third wave. Our simulation results showed that with a high maximum capacity, i.e., 10,000 general and isolation ward beds, 4,000 high care and ICU beds and 1,200 ventilators, increasing the resource capacity allocated to COVID-19 patients by 25% was enough to maintain bed availability throughout the epidemic waves. With a medium resource capacity (8,500 general and isolation ward beds, 3,000 high care and ICU beds and 1,000 ventilators) a combination of resource management strategies and their timing and criteria were very effective in maintaining bed availability and therefore preventing excess deaths. With a low number of maximum available resources (7,000 general and isolation ward beds, 2,000 high care and ICU beds and 800 ventilators) and a severe epidemic wave, these strategies were effective in maintaining the bed availability and minimizing the number of excess deaths for the entire province and throughout the epidemic wave. |
Link[7] Community structured model for vaccine strategies to control COVID19 spread: A mathematical study
Author: Elena Aruffo, Pei Yuan, Yi Tan, Evgenia Gatov, Effie Gournis, Sarah Collier, Nick Ogden, Jacques Bélair, Huaiping Zhu Publication date: 27 October 2022 Publication info: PLoS ONE 17(10): e0258648 Cited by: David Price 3:09 PM 19 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (6) 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 679803Jacques BélairProfessor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Université de Montréal10019D3ABAB, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 714608Charting a FutureCharting a Future for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling in Canada – April 2023 [1] 2794CAE1, 715329Nick OgdenNicholas Ogden is a senior research scientist and Director of the Public Health Risk Sciences Division within the National Microbiology Laboratory at the Public Health Agency of Canada.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258648
| Excerpt / Summary [PLoS ONE, 27 October 2022]
Initial efforts to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic have relied heavily on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including physical distancing, hand hygiene, and mask-wearing. However, an effective vaccine is essential to containing the spread of the virus. We developed a compartmental model to examine different vaccine strategies for controlling the spread of COVID-19. Our framework accounts for testing rates, test-turnaround times, and vaccination waning immunity. Using reported case data from the city of Toronto, Canada between Mar-Dec, 2020 we defined epidemic phases of infection using contact rates as well as the probability of transmission upon contact. We investigated the impact of vaccine distribution by comparing different permutations of waning immunity, vaccine coverage and efficacy throughout various stages of NPI’s relaxation in terms of cases and deaths. The basic reproduction number is also studied. We observed that widespread vaccine coverage substantially reduced the number of cases and deaths. Under phases with high transmission, an early or late reopening will result in new resurgence of the infection, even with the highest coverage. On the other hand, under phases with lower transmission, 60% of coverage is enough to prevent new infections. Our analysis of R0 showed that the basic reproduction number is reduced by decreasing the tests turnaround time and transmission in the household. While we found that household transmission can decrease following the introduction of a vaccine, public health efforts to reduce test turnaround times remain important for virus containment. |
Link[8] Effect of Movement on the Early Phase of an Epidemic
Author: Julien Arino, Evan Milliken Publication date: 23 September 2023 Publication info: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 23 September 2022, 84(11). Cited by: David Price 6:45 PM 20 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679775David BuckeridgeDavid is a Professor in the School of Population and Global Health at McGill University, where he directs the Surveillance Lab, an interdisciplinary group that develops, implements, and evaluates novel computational methods for population health surveillance. He is also the Chief Digital Health Officer at the McGill University Health Center where he directs strategy on digital transformation and analytics and he is an Associate Member with the Montreal Institute for Learning Algorithms (Mila).10019D3ABAB, 679817Julien ArinoProfessor and Faculty of Science Research Chair in Fundamental Science with the Department of Mathematics at the University of Manitoba.10019D3ABAB, 703963Mobility859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-022-01077-5
| Excerpt / Summary [Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 23 September 2022]
The early phase of an epidemic is characterized by a small number of infected individuals, implying that stochastic effects drive the dynamics of the disease. Mathematically, we define the stochastic phase as the time during which the number of infected individuals remains small and positive. A continuous-time Markov chain model of a simple two-patch epidemic is presented. An algorithm for formalizing what is meant by small is presented, and the effect of movement on the duration of the early stochastic phase of an epidemic is studied. |
Link[9] Simulating a Hockey Hub COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Facility
Author: Ali Asgary, Hudson Blue, Felippe Cronemberger, Matthew Ni Publication date: 4 May 2022 Publication info: Healthcare 2022, 10(5), 843; Cited by: David Price 6:54 PM 20 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 708812Simulation859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare10050843
| Excerpt / Summary [Healthcare, 4 May 2023]
Mass vaccination is proving to be the most effective method of disease control, and several methods have been developed for the operation of mass vaccination clinics to administer vaccines safely and quickly. One such method is known as the hockey hub model, a relatively new method that involves isolating vaccine recipients in individual cubicles for the entire duration of the vaccination process. Healthcare staff move between the cubicles and administer vaccines. This allows for faster vaccine delivery and less recipient contact. In this paper we present a simulation tool which has been created to model the operation of a hockey hub clinic. This tool was developed using AnyLogic and simulates the process of individuals moving through a hockey hub vaccination clinic. To demonstrate this model, we simulate six scenarios comprising three different arrival rates with and without physical distancing. Findings demonstrate that the hockey hub method of vaccination clinic can function at a large capacity with minimal impact on wait times. |
Link[10] Modeling COVID-19 Outbreaks in Long-Term Care Facilities Using an Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Approach
Author: Ali Asgary, Hudson Blue, Adriano O. Solis, Zachary McCarthy, Mahdi Najafabadi, Mohammad Ali Tofighi, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 24 February 2022 Publication info: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(5), 2635. Cited by: David Price 6:57 PM 20 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 708813Agent-based models859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19052635
| Excerpt / Summary [International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 24 February 2022]
The elderly, especially those individuals with pre-existing health problems, have been disproportionally at a higher risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. Residents of long-term care facilities have been gravely affected by the pandemic and resident death numbers have been far above those of the general population. To better understand how infectious diseases such as COVID-19 can spread through long-term care facilities, we developed an agent-based simulation tool that uses a contact matrix adapted from previous infection control research in these types of facilities. This matrix accounts for the average distinct daily contacts between seven different agent types that represent the roles of individuals in long-term care facilities. The simulation results were compared to actual COVID-19 outbreaks in some of the long-term care facilities in Ontario, Canada. Our analysis shows that this simulation tool is capable of predicting the number of resident deaths after 50 days with a less than 0.1 variation in death rate. We modeled and predicted the effectiveness of infection control measures by utilizing this simulation tool. We found that to reduce the number of resident deaths, the effectiveness of personal protective equipment must be above 50%. We also found that daily random COVID-19 tests for as low as less than 10% of a long-term care facility’s population will reduce the number of resident deaths by over 75%. The results further show that combining several infection control measures will lead to more effective outcomes. |
Link[11] Spatiotemporal Analysis of Emergency Calls during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Case of the City of Vaughan
Author: Ali Asgary, Adriano O. Solis, Nawar Khan, Janithra Wimaladasa, Maryam Shafiei Sabet Publication date: 12 June 2023 Publication info: Urban Sci. 2023, 7(2), 62 Cited by: David Price 7:03 PM 20 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 703960Spatio-temporal analysis859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci7020062
| Excerpt / Summary [Urban Science, 12 June 2023]
Cities have experienced different realities during the COVID-19 pandemic due to its impacts and public health measures undertaken to respond to and manage the pandemic. These measures revealed significant implications for municipal functions, particularly emergency services. The aim of this study is to examine the spatiotemporal distribution of emergency calls during different stages/periods of the pandemic in the City of Vaughan, Canada, using spatial density and the emerging hotspot analysis. The Vaughan Fire and Rescue Service (VFRS) provided the dataset of all emergency calls responded to within the City of Vaughan for the period of 1 January 2017 to 15 July 2021. The dataset was divided according to 11 periods during the pandemic, each period associated with certain levels of public health restrictions. A spatial analysis was carried out by converting the data into shapefiles using geographic coordinates of each call. Study findings show significant spatiotemporal changes in patterns of emergency calls during the pandemic, particularly during more stringent public health measures such as lockdowns and closures of nonessential businesses. The results could provide useful information for both resource management in emergency services as well as understanding the underlying causes of such patterns. |
Link[12] Workplace absenteeism due to COVID-19 and influenza across Canada: A mathematical model
Author: W.S. Avusuglo, Rahele Mosleh, Tedi Ramaj, Ao Li, Sileshi Sintayehu Sharbayta, Abdoul Aziz Fall, Srijana Ghimire, Fenglin Shi, Jason K.H. Lee, Edward Thommes, Thomas Shin, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 7 September 2023 Publication info: Journal of Theoretical Biology, 111559–111559, Volume 572, 7 September 2023, Cited by: David Price 7:06 PM 20 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715419Edward Thommes Edward W. Thommes is an Adjunct Professor of Mathematics at the University of Guelph and at York University. He is a Global Modeling Lead in the Modeling, Epidemiology and Data Science (MEDS) team of Sanofi Vaccines, an Affiliate Researcher in the Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation (WICI), and a member of the Strategic Advisory Committee for the Mathematics for Public Health program at the Fields Institute.10019D3ABAB, 715454Workforce impact859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111559
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Theoretical Biology, 7 September 2023]
The continual distress of COVID-19 cannot be overemphasized. The pandemic economic and social costs are alarming, with recent attributed economic loss amounting to billions of dollars globally. This economic loss is partly driven by workplace absenteeism due to the disease. Influenza is believed to be a culprit in reinforcing this phenomenon as it may exist in the population concurrently with COVID-19 during the influenza season. Furthermore, their joint infection may increase workplace absenteeism leading to additional economic loss. The objective of this project will aim to quantify the collective impact of COVID-19 and influenza on workplace absenteeism via a mathematical compartmental disease model incorporating population screening and vaccination. Our results indicate that appropriate PCR testing and vaccination of both COVID-19 and seasonal influenza may significantly alleviate workplace absenteeism. However, with COVID-19 PCR testing, there may be a critical threshold where additional tests may result in diminishing returns. Regardless, we recommend on-going PCR testing as a public health intervention accompanying concurrent COVID-19 and influenza vaccination with the added caveat that sensitivity analyses will be necessary to determine the optimal thresholds for both testing and vaccine coverage. Overall, our results suggest that rates of COVID-19 vaccination and PCR testing capacity are important factors for reducing absenteeism, while the influenza vaccination rate and the transmission rates for both COVID-19 and influenza have lower and almost equal affect on absenteeism. We also use the model to estimate and quantify the (indirect) benefit that influenza immunization confers against COVID-19 transmission. |
Link[13] COVID-19 and Malaria Co-Infection: Do Stigmatization and Self-Medication Matter? A Mathematical Modelling Study for Nigeria
Author: Wisdom Avusuglo, Qing Han, Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Ali Ahmadi, Ali Asgary, Jianhong Wu, James Orbinski, Jude Dzevela Kong Publication date: 11 May 2022 Publication info: SSRN Cited by: David Price 7:17 PM 20 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (6) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 704042Malaria859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715767Woldegebriel Assefa WoldegerimaDr. Woldegerima, knows as "Assefa", is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4090040
| Excerpt / Summary [SSRN, 11 May 2022]
Self-medication and the use of complementary medicine are common among people in the Global South for social, economic, and psychological reasons. Governments in these countries are generally faced with several challenges, including limited resources and poor infrastructure, and patient health literacy. For COVID-19, this is fueled by the rapid spread of rumors in favour of these modalities on social media. Also common in the Global South is the stigmatization of people with COVID-19. Because of the stigma attached to having COVID-19, most COVID-19 patients prefer to test instead for malaria, since malaria (which is very common in the Global South) and COVID-19 share several symptoms leading to misdiagnosis. Thus, to efficiently predict the dynamics of COVID-19 in the Global South, the role of the self-medicated population, the dynamics of malaria, and the impact of stigmatization need to be taken into account. In this paper, we formulate and analyze a mathematical model for the co-dynamics of COVID-19 and malaria in Nigeria. The model is represented by a system of compartmental ODEs that take into account the self-medicated population and the impact of COVID-19 stigmatization. Our findings reveal that COVID-19 stigmatization and misdiagnosis contribute to self-medication, which, in turn, increases the prevalence of COVID-19. The basic and invasion reproduction numbers for these diseases and quantification of model parameters uncertainties and sensitivities are presented. |
Link[14] A contact tracing SIR model for randomly mixed populations
Author: Sam Bednarski, Laura L.E. Cowen, Junling Ma,Tanya Philippsen, P. van den Driessche, Manting Wang Publication date: 2 June 2022 Publication info: Journal of Biological Dynamics, Volume 16, 2022 - Issue 1, Pages 859-879 Cited by: David Price 7:11 PM 21 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679818Junling MaI am an associate professor in Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria. I received B.Sc. in Applied Mathematics in 1994, and M.Sc in Applied Mathematics in 1997, from Xi'an Jiaotong University, China. I received Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics from Princeton University in 2003.10019D3ABAB, 679826Laura CowenAssociate Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Victoria.10019D3ABAB, 7146871c Branching process models; compartmental SIR model123AECCD8, 715294Contact tracing859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2153938
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Biological Dynamics, 2 Jun 2022]
Contact tracing is an important intervention measure to control infectious diseases. We present a new approach that borrows the edge dynamics idea from network models to track contacts included in a compartmental SIR model for an epidemic spreading in a randomly mixed population. Unlike network models, our approach does not require statistical information of the contact network, data that are usually not readily available. The model resulting from this new approach allows us to study the effect of contact tracing and isolation of diagnosed patients on the control reproduction number and number of infected individuals. We estimate the effects of tracing coverage and capacity on the effectiveness of contact tracing. Our approach can be extended to more realistic models that incorporate latent and asymptomatic compartments. |
Link[15] The effect of COVID-19 on public hospital revenues in Iran: An interrupted time-series analysis
Author: Masoud Behzadifar, Afshin Aalipour, Mohammad Kehsvari, Banafsheh Darvishi Teli, Mahboubeh Khaton Ghanbari, Hasan Abolghasem Gorji, Alaeddin Sheikhi, Samad Azari, Mohammad Heydarian, Seyed Jafar Ehsanzadeh, Jude Dzevela Kong, Maryam Ahadi, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi Publication date: 31 March 2022 Publication info: PLOS ONE, 17(3), e0266343. Cited by: David Price 7:16 PM 21 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 685420Hospitals16289D5D4, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266343
| Excerpt / Summary [PLOS ONE, 31 March 2022]
Background: The “Coronavirus Disease 2019” (COVID-19) pandemic has become a major challenge for all healthcare systems worldwide, and besides generating a high toll of deaths, it has caused economic losses. Hospitals have played a key role in providing services to patients and the volume of hospital activities has been refocused on COVID-19 patients. Other activities have been limited/repurposed or even suspended and hospitals have been operating with reduced capacity. With the decrease in non-COVID-19 activities, their financial system and sustainability have been threatened, with hospitals facing shortage of financial resources. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of COVID-19 on the revenues of public hospitals in Lorestan province in western Iran, as a case study.
Method: In this quasi-experimental study, we conducted the interrupted time series analysis to evaluate COVID-19 induced changes in monthly revenues of 18 public hospitals, from April 2018 to August 2021, in Lorestan, Iran. In doing so, public hospitals report their earnings to the University of Medical Sciences monthly; then, we collected this data through the finance office.
Results: Due to COVID-19, the revenues of public hospitals experienced an average monthly decrease of $172,636 thousand (P-value = 0.01232). For about 13 months, the trend of declining hospital revenues continued. However, after February 2021, a relatively stable increase could be observed, with patient admission and elective surgeries restrictions being lifted. The average monthly income of hospitals increased by $83,574 thousand.
Conclusion: COVID-19 has reduced the revenues of public hospitals, which have faced many problems due to the high costs they have incurred. During the crisis, lack of adequate fundings can damage healthcare service delivery, and policymakers should allocate resources to prevent potential shocks. |
Link[16] Is monkeypox a new, emerging sexually transmitted disease? A rapid review of the literature
Author: Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Jude Dzevela Kong, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 13 September 2022 Publication info: Journal of Medical Virology, Volume 95, Issue 1 e28145 Cited by: David Price 7:27 PM 21 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.28145
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Medical Virology, 13 September 2022]
Monkeypox, a milder disease compared to smallpox, is caused by a virus initially discovered and described in 1958 by the prominent Danish virologist von Magnus, who was investigating an infectious outbreak affecting monkey colonies. Currently, officially starting from May 2022, an outbreak of monkeypox is ongoing, with 51 000 cases being notified as of September 1, 2022—51 408 confirmed, 28 suspected, and 12 fatalities, for a grand total of 51 448 cases. More than 100 countries and territories are affected, from all the six World Health Organization regions. There are some striking features, that make this outbreak rather unusual when compared with previous outbreaks, including a shift on average age and the most affected age group, affected sex/gender, risk factors, clinical course, presentation, and the transmission route. Initially predominantly zoonotic, with an animal-to-human transmission, throughout the last decades, human-to-human transmission has become more and more sustained and effective. In particular, clusters of monkeypox have been described among men having sex with men, some of which have been epidemiologically linked to international travel to nonendemic countries and participation in mass gathering events/festivals, like the “Maspalomas (Gran Canaria) 2022 pride.” This review will specifically focus on the “emerging” transmission route of the monkeypox virus, that is to say, the sexual transmission route, which, although not confirmed yet, seems highly likely in the diffusion of the infectious agent. |
Link[17] Epidemiological trends and clinical features of the ongoing monkeypox epidemic: a preliminary pooled data analysis and literature review
Author: Nicola L. Bragazzi, Jude D. Kong, Naim Mahroum, Christina Tsigalou, Rola Khamisy-Farah, Manlio Converti, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 12 June 2022 Publication info: Journal of Medical VirologyVolume 95, Issue 1 e27931 Cited by: David Price 7:30 PM 21 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 715667mpox859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.27931
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Medical Virology, 12 June 2022]
An emerging outbreak of monkeypox infection is quickly spreading worldwide, being currently reported in more than 30 countries, with slightly less than 1000 cases. In the present preliminary report, we collected and synthesized early data concerning epidemiological trends and clinical features of the ongoing outbreak and we compared them with those of previous outbreaks. Data were pooled from six clusters in Italy, Australia, the Czech Republic, Portugal, and the United Kingdom, totaling 124 cases (for 35 of which it was possible to retrieve detailed information). The ongoing epidemic differs from previous outbreaks in terms of age (54.29% of individuals in their thirties), sex/gender (most cases being males), risk factors, and transmission route, with sexual transmission being highly likely. Also, the clinical presentation is atypical and unusual, being characterized by anogenital lesions and rashes that relatively spare the face and extremities. The most prevalent sign/symptom reported was fever (in 54.29% of cases) followed by inguinal lymphadenopathy (45.71%) and exanthema (40.00%). Asthenia, fatigue, and headache were described in 22.86% and 25.71% of the subjects, respectively. Myalgia was present in 17.14% of the cases. Both genital and anal lesions (ulcers and vesicles) were reported in 31.43% of the cases. Finally, cervical lymphadenopathy was described in 11.43% of the sample, while the least commonly reported symptoms were diarrhea and axillary lymphadenopathy (5.71% of the case series for both symptoms). Some preliminary risk factors can be identified (being a young male, having sex with other men, engaging in risky behaviors and activities, including condomless sex, human immunodeficiency virus positivity (54.29% of the sample analyzed), and a story of previous sexually transmitted infections, including syphilis). On the other hand, being fully virally suppressed and undetectable may protect against a more severe infectious course. However, further research in the field is urgently needed. |
Link[18] Knowing the unknown: The underestimation of monkeypox cases. Insights and implications from an integrative review of the literature
Author: Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima, Sarafa Adewale Iyaniwura, Qing Han, Xiaoying Wang, Aminath Shausan, Kingsley Badu, Patrick Okwen, Cheryl Prescod, Michelle Westin, Andrew Omame, Manlio Converti, Bruce Mellado, Jianhong Wu, Jude Dzevela Kong Publication date: 23 September 2022 Publication info: Frontiers in Microbiology, 23 September 2022 Cited by: David Price 7:36 PM 21 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 715667mpox859FDEF6, 715767Woldegebriel Assefa WoldegerimaDr. Woldegerima, knows as "Assefa", is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2022.1011049
| Excerpt / Summary [Frontiers in Microbiology, 23 September 2022]
Monkeypox is an emerging zoonotic disease caused by the monkeypox virus, which is an infectious agent belonging to the genus Orthopoxvirus. Currently, commencing from the end of April 2022, an outbreak of monkeypox is ongoing, with more than 43,000 cases reported as of 23 August 2022, involving 99 countries and territories across all the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions. On 23 July 2022, the Director-General of the WHO declared monkeypox a global public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), since the outbreak represents an extraordinary, unusual, and unexpected event that poses a significant risk for international spread, requiring an immediate, coordinated international response. However, the real magnitude of the burden of disease could be masked by failures in ascertainment and under-detection. As such, underestimation affects the efficiency and reliability of surveillance and notification systems and compromises the possibility of making informed and evidence-based policy decisions in terms of the adoption and implementation of ad hoc adequate preventive measures. In this review, synthesizing 53 papers, we summarize the determinants of the underestimation of sexually transmitted diseases, in general, and, in particular, monkeypox, in terms of all their various components and dimensions (under-ascertainment, underreporting, under-detection, under-diagnosis, misdiagnosis/misclassification, and under-notification). |
Link[19] Non-pharmaceutical intervention levels to reduce the COVID-19 attack ratio among children
Author: Jummy David, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Francesca Scarabel, Zachary McCarthy, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 16 March 2022 Publication info: Royal Society Open Science, 9(3), 16 March 2022 Cited by: David Price 7:41 PM 21 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211863
| Excerpt / Summary [Royal Society Open Science, 16 March 2022]
The attack ratio in a subpopulation is defined as the total number of infections over the total number of individuals in this subpopulation. Using a methodology based on an age-stratified transmission dynamics model, we estimated the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children (individuals 0–11 years) when a large proportion of individuals eligible for vaccination (age 12 and above) are vaccinated to contain the epidemic among this subpopulation, or the effective herd immunity (with additional physical distancing measures). We describe the relationship between the attack ratio among children, the time to remove infected individuals from the transmission chain and the children-to-children daily contact rate while considering the increased transmissibility of virus variants (using the Delta variant as an example). We illustrate the generality and applicability of the methodology established by performing an analysis of the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children in the population of Canada and in its province of Ontario. The clinical attack ratio, defined as the number of symptomatic infections over the total population, can be informed from the attack ratio and both can be reduced substantially via a combination of reduced social mixing and rapid testing and isolation of the children. |
Link[20] When host populations move north, but disease moves south: counter-intuitive impacts of climate warming on disease spread
Author: E. Joe Moran, Maria Martignoni, Nicolas Lecomte, Patrick Leighton, Amy Hurford Publication date: 9 January 2023 Publication info: Theoretical Ecology, 16, pages 13–19 (2023) Cited by: David Price 11:11 PM 22 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 679752Amy HurfordAmy Hurford is an Associate Professor jointly appointed in the Department of Biology and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador. 10019D3ABAB, 679859Patrick LeightonPatrick Leighton is a Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health at the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Montreal, and an active member of the Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health Research Group (GREZOSP) and the Centre for Public Health Research (CReSP). 10019D3ABAB, 701222OMNI – Publications144B5ACA0, 703962Ecology859FDEF6, 703967Climate change859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1306312/v1
| Excerpt / Summary Empirical observations and mathematical models show that climate warming can lead to the northern (or, more generally, poleward) spread of host species ranges and their corresponding diseases. Here, we consider an unexpected possibility whereby climate warming facilitates disease spread in the opposite direction to the directional shift in the host species range. To explore this possibility, we consider two host species, both susceptible to a disease, but spatially isolated due to distinct thermal niches, and where prior to climate warming the disease is endemic in the northern species only. Previous theoretical results show that species distributions can lag behind species thermal niches when climate warming occurs. As such, we hypothesize that climate warming may increase the overlap between northern and southern host species ranges, due to the northern species lagging behind its thermal tolerance limit. To test our hypothesis, we simulate climate warming as a reaction-diffusion equation model with a Susceptible-Infected (SI) epidemiological structure, for two competing species with distinct temperature-dependent niches. We show that climate warming, by shifting both species niches northwards, can facilitate the southward spread of disease, due to increased range overlap between the two populations. As our model is general, our findings may apply to viral, bacterial, and prion diseases that do not have thermal tolerance limits and are inextricably linked to their hosts distributions, such as the spread of rabies from arctic to red foxes. |
Link[21] Delayed Model for the Transmission and Control of COVID-19 with Fangcang Shelter Hospitals
Author: Guihong Fan, Juan Li, Jacques Bélair, Huaiping Zhu Publication date: 1 February 2023 Publication info: Siam Journal on Applied Mathematics, 83(1), 276–301 Cited by: David Price 11:55 PM 22 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 679803Jacques BélairProfessor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Université de Montréal10019D3ABAB, 685420Hospitals16289D5D4, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1137/21m146154x
| Excerpt / Summary [Siam Journal on Applied Mathematics, February 2023]
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a huge threat to global public health. Motivated by China’s experience of using Fangcang shelter hospitals (FSHs) to successfully combat the epidemic in its initial stages, we present a two-stage delay model considering the average waiting time of patients’ admission to study the impact of hospital beds and centralized quarantine on mitigating and controlling of the outbreak. We compute the basic reproduction number in terms of the hospital resources and perform a sensitivity analysis of the average waiting times of patients before admission to the hospitals. We conclude that, while designated hospitals save lives in severely infected individuals, the FSHs played a key role in mitigating and eventually curbing the epidemic. We also quantified some key epidemiological indicators, such as the final size of infections and deaths, the peak height and its timing, and the maximum occupation of beds in FSHs. Our study suggests that, for a jurisdiction (region or country) still struggling with COVID-19, when possible, it is essential to increase testing capacity and use a centralized quarantine to massively reduce the severity and magnitude of the epidemic that follows. |
Link[22] The Impact of Quarantine and Medical Resources on the Control of COVID-19 in Wuhan based on a Household Model
Author: Shanshan Feng, Juping Zhang, Juan Li, Xiao-Feng Luo, Huaiping Zhu, Michael Y. Li, Zhen Jin Publication date: 26 February 2022 Publication info: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 84(4), 47 Cited by: David Price 0:01 AM 23 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 685387Michael Y LiProfessor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences at the University of Alberta, and Director of the Information Research Lab (IRL).10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-021-00989-y
| Excerpt / Summary [Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 26 February 2022]
In order to understand how Wuhan curbed the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, we build a network transmission model of 123 dimensions incorporating the impact of quarantine and medical resources as well as household transmission. Using our new model, the final infection size of Wuhan is predicted to be 50,662 (95%CI: 46,234, 55,493), and the epidemic would last until April 25 (95%CI: April 23, April 29), which are consistent with the actual situation. It is shown that quarantining close contacts greatly reduces the final size and shorten the epidemic duration. The opening of Fangcang shelter hospitals reduces the final size by about 17,000. Had the number of hospital beds been sufficient when the lockdown started, the number of deaths would have been reduced by at least 54.26%. We also investigate the distribution of infectious individuals in unquarantined households of different sizes. The high-risk households are those with size from two to four before the peak time, while the households with only one member have the highest risk after the peak time. Our findings provide a reference for the prevention, mitigation and control of COVID-19 in other cities of the world. |
Link[23] Age-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 in Ontario with human mobility during pandemic’s first wave
Author: R. Fields, L. Humphrey D. Flynn-Primrose, Z. Mohammadi, M. Nahirniak, E.W. Thommes, M.G. Cojocaru Publication date: 1 September 2021 Publication info: Heliyon, 7(9), e07905. Cited by: David Price 0:11 AM 23 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (6) 701624Zahra MohammadiPostdoctoral Fellow, Mathematics for Public health, Fields Institute, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Memorial University of Newfoundland.10019D3ABAB, 703963Mobility859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6, 715419Edward Thommes Edward W. Thommes is an Adjunct Professor of Mathematics at the University of Guelph and at York University. He is a Global Modeling Lead in the Modeling, Epidemiology and Data Science (MEDS) team of Sanofi Vaccines, an Affiliate Researcher in the Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation (WICI), and a member of the Strategic Advisory Committee for the Mathematics for Public Health program at the Fields Institute.10019D3ABAB, 715762Monica CojocaruProfessor in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at the University of Guelph. 10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07905
| Excerpt / Summary [Heliyon, 1 September 2021]
In this work, we employ a data-fitted compartmental model to visualize the progression and behavioral response to COVID-19 that match provincial case data in Ontario, Canada from February to June of 2020. This is a “rear-view mirror” glance at how this region has responded to the 1st wave of the pandemic, when testing was sparse and NPI measures were the only remedy to stave off the pandemic. We use an SEIR-type model with age-stratified subpopulations and their corresponding contact rates and asymptomatic rates in order to incorporate heterogeneity in our population and to calibrate the time-dependent reduction of Ontario-specific contact rates to reflect intervention measures in the province throughout lockdown and various stages of social-distancing measures. Cellphone mobility data taken from Google, combining several mobility categories, allows us to investigate the effects of mobility reduction and other NPI measures on the evolution of the pandemic. Of interest here is our quantification of the effectiveness of Ontario's response to COVID-19 before and after provincial measures and our conclusion that the sharp decrease in mobility has had a pronounced effect in the first few weeks of the lockdown, while its effect is harder to infer once other NPI measures took hold. |
Link[24] Estimated US Pediatric Hospitalizations and School Absenteeism Associated With Accelerated COVID-19 Bivalent Booster Vaccination
Author: Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Seyed M. Moghadas, Thomas N. Vilches, Arnav Shah, Abhishek Pandey, Alison P. Galvani Publication date: 19 May 2023 Publication info: JAMA Network Open, 2023;6(5):e2313586. Cited by: David Price 3:23 PM 23 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 679878Seyed MoghadasSeyed Moghadas is an infectious disease modeller whose research includes mathematical and computational modelling in epidemiology and immunology. In particular, he is interested in the theoretical and computational aspects of mathematical models describing the underlying dynamics of infectious diseases, with a particular emphasis on establishing strong links between micro (individual) and macro (population) levels.10019D3ABAB, 685420Hospitals16289D5D4, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715617Schools859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.13586
| Excerpt / Summary [JAMA Network Open, 19 May 2023]
Importance: Adverse outcomes of COVID-19 in the pediatric population include disease and hospitalization, leading to school absenteeism. Booster vaccination for eligible individuals across all ages may promote health and school attendance.
Objective: To assess whether accelerating COVID-19 bivalent booster vaccination uptake across the general population would be associated with reduced pediatric hospitalizations and school absenteeism.
Design, Setting, and Participants: In this decision analytical model, a simulation model of COVID-19 transmission was fitted to reported incidence data from October 1, 2020, to September 30, 2022, with outcomes simulated from October 1, 2022, to March 31, 2023. The transmission model included the entire age-stratified US population, and the outcome model included children younger than 18 years.
Interventions: Simulated scenarios of accelerated bivalent COVID-19 booster campaigns to achieve uptake that was either one-half of or similar to the age-specific uptake observed for 2020 to 2021 seasonal influenza vaccination in the eligible population across all age groups.
Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were estimated hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and isolation days of symptomatic infection averted among children aged 0 to 17 years and estimated days of school absenteeism averted among children aged 5 to 17 years under the accelerated bivalent booster campaign simulated scenarios.
Results: Among children aged 5 to 17 years, a COVID-19 bivalent booster campaign achieving age-specific coverage similar to influenza vaccination could have averted an estimated 5 448 694 (95% credible interval [CrI], 4 936 933-5 957 507) days of school absenteeism due to COVID-19 illness. In addition, the booster campaign could have prevented an estimated 10 019 (95% CrI, 8756-11 278) hospitalizations among the pediatric population aged 0 to 17 years, of which 2645 (95% CrI, 2152-3147) were estimated to require intensive care. A less ambitious booster campaign with only 50% of the age-specific uptake of influenza vaccination among eligible individuals could have averted an estimated 2 875 926 (95% CrI, 2 524 351-3 332 783) days of school absenteeism among children aged 5 to 17 years and an estimated 5791 (95% CrI, 4391-6932) hospitalizations among children aged 0 to 17 years, of which 1397 (95% CrI, 846-1948) were estimated to require intensive care.
Conclusions and Relevance: In this decision analytical model, increased uptake of bivalent booster vaccination among eligible age groups was associated with decreased hospitalizations and school absenteeism in the pediatric population. These findings suggest that although COVID-19 prevention strategies often focus on older populations, the benefits of booster campaigns for children may be substantial. |
Link[25] Meaningful Contact Estimates among Children in a Childcare Centre with Applications to Contact Matrices in Infectious Disease Modelling
Author: Darren Flynn-Primrose, Nickolas Hoover, Zahra Mohammadi, Austin Hung, Jason Lee, Miggi Tomovici, Edward W. Thommes, Dion Neame, Monica G. Cojocaru Publication date: 18 May 2022 Publication info: Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics, 2022, 10, 1525-1546 Cited by: David Price 3:33 PM 23 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 701624Zahra MohammadiPostdoctoral Fellow, Mathematics for Public health, Fields Institute, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Memorial University of Newfoundland.10019D3ABAB, 708813Agent-based models859FDEF6, 715419Edward Thommes Edward W. Thommes is an Adjunct Professor of Mathematics at the University of Guelph and at York University. He is a Global Modeling Lead in the Modeling, Epidemiology and Data Science (MEDS) team of Sanofi Vaccines, an Affiliate Researcher in the Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation (WICI), and a member of the Strategic Advisory Committee for the Mathematics for Public Health program at the Fields Institute.10019D3ABAB, 715762Monica CojocaruProfessor in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at the University of Guelph. 10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.4236/jamp.2022.105107
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics, 18 May 2022]
We present a mathematical model of a day care center in a developed country (such as Canada), in order to use it for the estimation of individual-to-individual contact rates in young age groups and in an educational group setting. In our model, individuals in the population are children (ages 1.5 to 4 years) and staff, and their interactions are modelled explicitly: person-to-person and person-to-environment, with a very high time resolution. Their movement and meaningful contact patterns are simulated and then calibrated with collected data from a child care facility as a case study. We present these calibration results as a first part in the further development of our model for testing and estimating the spread of infectious diseases within child care centers. |
Link[26] Optimal Vaccination Policy to Prevent Endemicity: A Stochastic Model
Author: Félix Foutel-Rodier, Arthur Charpentier, Hélène Guérin Publication date: 23 June 2023 Publication info: arXiv:2306.13633 [q-bio.PE] Cited by: David Price 3:52 PM 23 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679754Arthur CharpentierProfessor in the Department of Mathematics at the Université du Québec à Montréal, and Full Professor in the Department of Economics at Université Rennes.10019D3ABAB, 679794Héléne GuérinTeacher in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM)10019D3ABAB, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2306.13633
| Excerpt / Summary [arXiv, 23 June 2023]
We examine here the effects of recurrent vaccination and waning immunity on the establishment of an endemic equilibrium in a population. An individual-based model that incorporates memory effects for transmission rate during infection and subsequent immunity is introduced, considering stochasticity at the individual level. By letting the population size going to infinity, we derive a set of equations describing the large scale behavior of the epidemic. The analysis of the model's equilibria reveals a criterion for the existence of an endemic equilibrium, which depends on the rate of immunity loss and the distribution of time between booster doses. The outcome of a vaccination policy in this context is influenced by the efficiency of the vaccine in blocking transmissions and the distribution pattern of booster doses within the population. Strategies with evenly spaced booster shots at the individual level prove to be more effective in preventing disease spread compared to irregularly spaced boosters, as longer intervals without vaccination increase susceptibility and facilitate more efficient disease transmission. We provide an expression for the critical fraction of the population required to adhere to the vaccination policy in order to eradicate the disease, that resembles a well-known threshold for preventing an outbreak with an imperfect vaccine. We also investigate the consequences of unequal vaccine access in a population and prove that, under reasonable assumptions, fair vaccine allocation is the optimal strategy to prevent endemicity. |
Link[27] Modelling Disease Mitigation at Mass Gatherings: A Case Study of COVID-19 at the 2022 FIFA World Cup
Author: Martin Grunnill, Julien Arino, Zachary McCarthy, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Laurent Coudeville, Edward W. Thommes, Amine Amiche, Abbas Ghasemi, Lydia Bourouiba, Mohammadali Tofighi, Ali Asgary, Mortaza Baky-Haskuee, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 29 March 2023 Publication info: medRxiv 2023.03.27.23287214 Cited by: David Price 3:59 PM 23 November 2023 GMT
Citerank: (7) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679817Julien ArinoProfessor and Faculty of Science Research Chair in Fundamental Science with the Department of Mathematics at the University of Manitoba.10019D3ABAB, 703963Mobility859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6, 715419Edward Thommes Edward W. Thommes is an Adjunct Professor of Mathematics at the University of Guelph and at York University. He is a Global Modeling Lead in the Modeling, Epidemiology and Data Science (MEDS) team of Sanofi Vaccines, an Affiliate Researcher in the Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation (WICI), and a member of the Strategic Advisory Committee for the Mathematics for Public Health program at the Fields Institute.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.03.27.23287214
| Excerpt / Summary [medRxiv, 29 March 2023]
The 2022 FIFA World Cup was the first major multi-continental sporting Mass Gathering Event (MGE) of the post COVID-19 era to allow foreign spectators. Such large-scale MGEs can potentially lead to outbreaks of infectious disease and contribute to the global dissemination of such pathogens. Here we adapt previous work and create a generalisable model framework for assessing the use of disease control strategies at such events, in terms of reducing infections and hospitalisations. This framework utilises a combination of meta-populations based on clusters of people and their vaccination status, Ordinary Differential Equation integration between fixed time events, and Latin Hypercube sampling. We use the FIFA 2022 World Cup as a case study for this framework. Pre-travel screenings of visitors were found to have little effect in reducing COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations. With pre-match screenings of spectators and match staff being more effective. Rapid Antigen (RA) screenings 0.5 days before match day outperformed RT-PCR screenings 1.5 days before match day. A combination of pre-travel RT-PCR and pre-match RA testing proved to be the most successful screening-based regime. However, a policy of ensuring that all visitors had a COVID-19 vaccination (second or booster dose) within a few months before departure proved to be much more efficacious. The State of Qatar abandoned all COVID-19 related travel testing and vaccination requirements over the period of the World Cup. Our work suggests that the State of Qatar may have been correct in abandoning the pre-travel testing of visitors. However, there was a spike in COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations within Qatar over the World Cup. The research outlined here suggests a policy requiring visitors to have had a recent COVID-19 vaccination may have prevented the increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations during the world cup. |
Link[28] A distributed digital twin implementation of a hemodialysis unit aimed at helping prevent the spread of the Omicron COVID-19 variant
Author: Jalal Possik, Danielle Azar, Adriano O. Solis, Ali Asgary, Gregory Zacharewicz, Abir Karami, Mohammadali Tofighi, Mahdi Najafabadi, Mohammad A. Shafiee, Asad A. Merchant, Mehdi Aarabi, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 1 November 2022 Publication info: 2022 IEEE/ACM 26th International Symposium on Distributed Simulation and Real Time Applications (DS-RT), 26-28 September 2022 Cited by: David Price 7:17 PM 24 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715391Digital Twins“A digital twin is a digital model of an intended or actual real-world physical product, system, or process (a physical twin) that serves as the effectively indistinguishable digital counterpart of it for practical purposes, such as simulation, integration, testing, monitoring, and maintenance.” [1]859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/DS-RT55542.2022.9932047
| Excerpt / Summary [IEEE/ACM 26th International Symposium on Distributed Simulation and Real Time Applications (DS-RT), 26-28 September 2022]
In order to monitor and assess the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, we propose a Distributed Digital Twin that virtually mirrors a hemodialysis unit in a hospital in Toronto, Canada. Since the solution involves heterogeneous components, we rely on the IEEE HLA distributed simulation standard. Based on the standard, we use an agent-based/discrete event simulator together with a virtual reality environment in order to provide to the medical staff an immersive experience that incorporates a platform showing predictive analytics during a simulation run. This can help professionals monitor the number of exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, recovered, and deceased agents. Agents are modeled using a redesigned version of the susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model. A contact matrix is generated to help identify those agents that increase the risk of the virus transmission within the unit. |
Link[29] Vaccine hesitancy promotes emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants
Author: Shuanglin Jing, Russell Milne, Hao Wang, Ling Xue Publication date: 26 May 2023 Publication info: Journal of Theoretical Biology, Volume 570, 2023, 111522, ISSN 0022-5193, 7 August 2023 Cited by: David Price 7:24 PM 24 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679791Hao WangProfessor in the Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences at the University of Alberta.10019D3ABAB, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111522
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Theoretical Biology, 26 May 2023]
The successive emergence of SARS-CoV-2 mutations has led to an unprecedented increase in COVID-19 incidence worldwide. Currently, vaccination is considered to be the best available solution to control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, public opposition to vaccination persists in many countries, which can lead to increased COVID-19 caseloads and hence greater opportunities for vaccine-evasive mutant strains to arise. To determine the extent that public opinion regarding vaccination can induce or hamper the emergence of new variants, we develop a model that couples a compartmental disease transmission framework featuring two strains of SARS-CoV-2 with game theoretical dynamics on whether or not to vaccinate. We combine semi-stochastic and deterministic simulations to explore the effect of mutation probability, perceived cost of receiving vaccines, and perceived risks of infection on the emergence and spread of mutant SARS-CoV-2 strains. We find that decreasing the perceived costs of being vaccinated and increasing the perceived risks of infection (that is, decreasing vaccine hesitation) will decrease the possibility of vaccine-resistant mutant strains becoming established by about fourfold for intermediate mutation rates. Conversely, we find increasing vaccine hesitation to cause both higher probability of mutant strains emerging and more wild-type cases after the mutant strain has appeared. We also find that once a new variant has emerged, perceived risk of being infected by the original variant plays a much larger role than perceptions of the new variant in determining future outbreak characteristics. Furthermore, we find that rapid vaccination under non-pharmaceutical interventions is a highly effective strategy for preventing new variant emergence, due to interaction effects between non-pharmaceutical interventions and public support for vaccination. Our findings indicate that policies that combine combating vaccine-related misinformation with non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as reducing social contact) will be the most effective for avoiding the establishment of harmful new variants. |
Link[30] COVID-19 in Ontario Long-term Care Facilities Project, a manually curated and validated database
Author: Mahakprit Kaur, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Jane Heffernan, Peter Tsasis, Jianhong Wu, Jude Dzevela Kong Publication date: 10 February 2023 Publication info: Frontiers in Public Health, Volume 11, 10 February 2023 Cited by: David Price 7:30 PM 24 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679806Jane HeffernanJane Heffernan is a professor of infectious disease modelling in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at York University. She is a co-director of the Canadian Centre for Disease Modelling, and she leads national and international networks in mathematical immunology and the modelling of waning and boosting immunity.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1133419
| Excerpt / Summary [Frontiers in Public Health, 10 February 2023]
In late December 2019, a novel, emerging coronavirus, termed as “Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-related Coronavirus Type 2” (SARS-CoV-2) was identified as the infectious agent responsible for the generally mild, but sometimes life-threatening and even fatal “Coronavirus Disease 2019” (COVID-19).
As of December 7, 2021, COVID-19 has imposed a dramatic toll of infections (more than 265 million cases) and deaths (more than 2.5 million deaths).
Long-term care facilities, including nursing homes, residential aged care facilities, retirement homes, skilled nursing facilities and assisted living communities, among others, have represented and still represent healthcare settings particularly vulnerable to the COVID-19 spread (1). For instance, in Canada, residents living in these facilities, being elderly and particularly frail, often with many co-morbidities, have been disproportionately hit by the pandemic, contributing to approximately two thirds (67%) of the entire total toll of deaths (2).
As of December 5, 2021, 11.8% and 7.0% of COVID-19 outbreaks occurred in the Ontario region have affected long-term care facilities and retirement homes, respectively, according to Public Health Ontario (PHO).
A recently published systematic review (3) has identified an array of parameters, including bed size and location in a high SARS-CoV-2 prevalence and mortality area, and number of staff members, as variables predicting COVID-19 related outcomes.
However, in some cases, findings were contrasting, with a number of studies reporting that higher staffing was associated with a higher mortality rate and other investigations obtaining opposite results. Discrepancies in both the direction and magnitude of the effect could be found also for other parameters, such as quality indicators, like star rating, and ownership, or pandemic preparedness indicators, including implementation of public health interventions for controlling and managing prior infections and the number of previous outbreaks occurred in the facility.
Such conflicting findings may depend on the specific nature of the jurisdiction and the setting of each long-term care facility. As such, local data is of paramount importance to inform public health workers, policy- and decision-makers and relevant stakeholders in a data-driven and evidence-based fashion.
Several databases exist, mainly dedicated to (non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical) public health interventions (4, 5), underlying biological mechanisms, in terms of pathways and cascades (6), but, to the best of authors' knowledge, no one specifically on long-term care facilities. Specifically, there are websites that provide information for each long-term care home in Ontario such as the location of the home, type of facility, and general statistics pertaining to the care offered. However, the information is limited as the focus of this data is to provide guidance for people looking to send their loved ones to a long-term care home to assist with their daily needs. In contrast, British Columbia has one comprehensive resource curated by Seniors Advocate BC that is sponsored by the province of British Columbia called the Long-Term Care Facilities Quick Facts Directory (7). It contains detailed information regarding the facility, rooms, funding, care offered (e.g., direct care hours), licensing, incidents, resident profiles, and vaccine coverage that is specific to each long-term care home. Since this information is compiled into one reliable resource, it makes it possible for relevant information to be quickly accessed and analyzed. In Ontario, no such counterpart was found. Further, it was difficult to access relevant data that was directly available online. The only publicly available data pertaining to long-term care homes offered by the Ministry of Long-Term Care is data regarding the long-term care home location and data for publicly reported COVID-19 cases (MLTC datasets) (8). The present database was devised and implemented to fill in this gap. |
Link[31] Assessing Inequities in COVID-19 Vaccine Roll-Out Strategy Programs: A Cross-Country Study Using a Machine Learning Approach
Author: Merhdad Kazemi, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Jude Dzevela Kong Publication date: 3 September 2021 Publication info: SSRN Electronic Journal, 3 September 2021 Cited by: David Price 7:36 PM 24 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 703953Machine learning859FDEF6, 703965Equity859FDEF6, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3914835
| Excerpt / Summary [SSRN, 3 September 2021]
Background: After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and its spread across the world, countries have adopted containment measures to stop its transmission, limit fatalities and relieve hospitals from strain and overwhelming imposed by the virus. Many countries implemented social distancing and lockdown strategies that negatively impacted their economies and the psychological wellbeing of their citizens, even though they contributed to saving lives. Recently approved and available, COVID-19 vaccines can provide a really viable and sustainable option for controlling the pandemic. However, their uptake represents a global challenge, due to vaccine hesitancy logistic-organizational hurdles that have made its distribution stagnant in several developed countries despite several appeal by the media, policy- and decision-makers, and community leaders. Vaccine distribution is a concern also in developing countries, where there is scarcity of doses.
Objective: To set up a metric to assess vaccination uptake and identify national socio-economic factors influencing this indicator.
Methods: We conducted a cross-country study. We first estimated the vaccination uptake rate across countries by fitting a logistic model to reported daily case numbers. Using the uptake rate, we estimated the vaccine roll-out index. Next, we used Random Forest, an “off-the-shelf” machine learning algorithm, to study the association between vaccination uptake rate and socio-economic factors.
Results: We found that the mean vaccine roll-out index is 0.016 (standard deviation 0.016), with a range between 0.0001 (Haiti) and 0.0829 (Mongolia). The top four factors associated with vaccine roll-out index are the median per capita income, human development index, percentage of individuals who have used the internet in the last three months, and health expenditure per capita.
Conclusion: The still ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has shed light on the chronic inequality in global health systems. The disparity in vaccine adoption across low- and high-income countries is a global public health challenge. We must pave the way for a universal access to vaccines and other approved treatments, regardless of demographic structures and underlying health conditions. Income disparity remains, instead, an important cause of vaccine inequity, and the tendency toward "vaccine nationalism" and “vaccine apartheid” restricts the functioning of the global vaccine allocation framework and, thus, the ending of the pandemic. Stronger mechanisms are needed to foster countries' political willingness to promote vaccine and drug access equity in a globalized society, where future pandemics and other global health rises can be anticipated. |
Link[32] Assessing the epidemiological and economic impact of alternative vaccination strategies: a modeling study
Author: S. Kim, S. Athar, Y. LI, S. Koumarianos, T. Cheng, L. Amiri, W. Avusuglo, W.A. Woldegerima, A.A. Fall, A. John-Baptiste, A. Diener, J. Wu Publication date: 28 February 2022 Publication info: International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 116, S60–S60, March 2022. Cited by: David Price 7:42 PM 24 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (6) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 686719Alan DienerDr. Diener is the Assistant Director of the Policy Research, Economics and Analytics unit, in the Strategic Policy Branch at Health Canada. Alan received his PhD in economics from McMaster University and he has previously held positions at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, the Public Health Agency of Canada, and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) where he was a consultant in the Health Division from 2011 to 2013.10019D3ABAB, 703957Economics859FDEF6, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715767Woldegebriel Assefa WoldegerimaDr. Woldegerima, knows as "Assefa", is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2021.12.142
| Excerpt / Summary [International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 28 February 2022]
Purpose: Given limited supplies of vaccines, having information on the costs, and associated health and economic impacts, is important for the development of optimal vaccination strategies. This study explores the epidemiological and economic impact, in terms of the value of lost production, of four vaccination strategies – fixed-dose interval (M1), prioritization of the first dose (M2), screen and forego vaccine for those with COVID-19 infection history (M3), and prioritization of the first dose along with screen and forego vaccine for those with COVID-19 infection history(M4), under constraints limiting the daily vaccine supply.
Methods & Materials: Using mathematical and statistical modelling, we quantified the number quarantined, hospitalization days, vaccine doses saved, and deaths averted, and production losses, for each strategy, in comparison to M1. The model parameters and initial conditions were based on Canadian data, and the simulation ran over 365 days starting from June 1, 2021. Sensitivity analyses explored how each strategy changes with different conditions of daily vaccine supply, the initial proportion recovered from COVID19 infection, and initial coverage of the first dose.
Results: Strategy M2 results in a reduction of 67,130,775 doses of vaccine administered, 20 lives saved, and a reduction of $3.8 billion of lost production in comparison to M1. M3 does not save any vaccine dose administered, but results in 5 lives saved, and a reduction of $575,149 in lost production in comparison to strategy M1. Due to the large proportion of the Canadian population who have already received a first vaccine dose, no screening actually occurs under scenario M3 and the daily vaccine supply was used entirely to provide second doses. While M2 is the dominant strategy under the current Canadian setting, sensitivity analyses revealed that M3 dominates when the vaccine supply increased or when the initial recovered proportion from COVID-19 was large enough.
Conclusion: The findings quantify the potential benefits of alternative vaccination strategies that can save lives and costs. Our study findings can help policymakers identify the optimal COVID19 vaccination strategy and our study framework can be adapted to other settings. |
Link[33] Law of mass action and saturation in SIR model with application to Coronavirus modelling
Author: Theodore Kolokolnikov, David Iron Publication date: 10 December 2020 Publication info: Infectious Disease Modelling, Volume 6, 2021, Pages 91-97 Cited by: David Price 7:48 PM 24 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679886Theodore KolokolnikovKillam Professor of Mathematics and Statistics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Dalhousie University.10019D3ABAB, 701222OMNI – Publications144B5ACA0, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.002
| Excerpt / Summary [Infectious Disease Modelling, 10 December 2020]
When using SIR and related models, it is common to assume that the infection rate is proportional to the product of susceptible and infected individuals. While this assumption works at the onset of the outbreak, the infection force saturates as the outbreak progresses, even in the absence of any interventions. We use a simple agent–based model to illustrate this saturation effect. Its continuum limit leads a modified SIR model with exponential saturation. The derivation is based on first principles incorporating the spread radius and population density. We use the data for coronavirus outbreak for the period from March to June, to show that using SIR model with saturation is sufficient to capture the disease dynamics for many jurstictions, including the overall world-wide disease curve progression. Our model suggests the R0 value of above 8 at the onset of infection, but with infection quickly “flattening out”, leading to a long-term sustained sub-exponential spread. |
Link[34] Effectiveness of chatbots on COVID vaccine confidence and acceptance in Thailand, Hong Kong, and Singapore
Author: Kristi Yoonsup Lee, Saudamini Vishwanath Dabak, Vivian Hanxiao Kong, Minah Park, Shirley L. L. Kwok, Madison Silzle, Chayapat Rachatan, Alex Cook, Aly Passanante, Ed Pertwee, Zhengdong Wu, Javier A. Elkin, Heidi J. Larson, Eric H. Y. Lau, Kathy Leung, Joseph T. Wu, Leesa Lin Publication date: 25 May 2023 Publication info: npj Digital Medicine, Volume 6, Article number: 96 (2023) Cited by: David Price 11:26 AM 25 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-023-00843-6
| Excerpt / Summary [npj Digital Medicine, 25 May 2023]
Chatbots have become an increasingly popular tool in the field of health services and communications. Despite chatbots’ significance amid the COVID-19 pandemic, few studies have performed a rigorous evaluation of the effectiveness of chatbots in improving vaccine confidence and acceptance. In Thailand, Hong Kong, and Singapore, from February 11th to June 30th, 2022, we conducted multisite randomised controlled trials (RCT) on 2,045 adult guardians of children and seniors who were unvaccinated or had delayed vaccinations. After a week of using COVID-19 vaccine chatbots, the differences in vaccine confidence and acceptance were compared between the intervention and control groups. Compared to non-users, fewer chatbot users reported decreased confidence in vaccine effectiveness in the Thailand child group [Intervention: 4.3 % vs. Control: 17%, P = 0.023]. However, more chatbot users reported decreased vaccine acceptance [26% vs. 12%, P = 0.028] in Hong Kong child group and decreased vaccine confidence in safety [29% vs. 10%, P = 0.041] in Singapore child group. There was no statistically significant change in vaccine confidence or acceptance in the Hong Kong senior group. Employing the RE-AIM framework, process evaluation indicated strong acceptance and implementation support for vaccine chatbots from stakeholders, with high levels of sustainability and scalability. This multisite, parallel RCT study on vaccine chatbots found mixed success in improving vaccine confidence and acceptance among unvaccinated Asian subpopulations. Further studies that link chatbot usage and real-world vaccine uptake are needed to augment evidence for employing vaccine chatbots to advance vaccine confidence and acceptance. |
Link[35] Controlling avian influenza - A One Health approach that links human, animal, and environmental health is essential
Author: Kathy Leung, Tommy T Y Lam, Joseph T Wu Publication date: 14 March 2023 Publication info: BMJ 2023;380:p560 Cited by: David Price 11:35 AM 25 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (1) 715587Avian influenza859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.p560
| Excerpt / Summary [BMJ, 14 March 2023]
Global reports of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) in birds are increasing, with cases reported from every region except Australasia and Antarctica since 2020.1 The global spread of these avian influenza outbreaks is unprecedented, exacting large economic losses to poultry industries and tourism, and posing a substantial threat to global health security and animal ecology.
In Europe, 2520 H5N1 outbreaks were reported in poultry between October 2021 and September 2022, and the virus was also detected in 3867 dead wild birds.2 The US reported 131 mammalian H5N1 infections among bears, foxes, raccoons, skunks, and seals between May 2022 and February 2023.3 In October 2022, an H5N1 outbreak among Spanish farmed minks was reported for the first time,4 triggering concerns that the virus might soon become transmissible between humans (mink are physiologically similar to ferrets, the animal model used to study transmissibility of influenza viruses among humans).5
On 24 February 2023, an 11 year old girl died from an H5N1 avian flu infection in Cambodia and… |
Link[36] Volatility and heterogeneity of vaccine sentiments means continuous monitoring is needed when measuring message effectiveness
Author: Kathy Leung, Leesa K Lin, Elad Yom-Tov, Karolien Poels, Kristi Lee, Heidi J Larson, Gabriel M Leung, Joseph T Wu Publication date: 27 February 2023 Publication info: Research Square, 27 February 2023 Cited by: David Price 12:05 PM 25 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2590646/v1
| Excerpt / Summary [Research Square, 27 February 2023]
Background: The success of vaccination programs often depends on the effectiveness of the vaccine messages, particularly during emergencies such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The current suboptimal uptake of COVID-19 vaccines across many parts of the world highlights the tremendous challenges in overcoming vaccine hesitancy and refusal even in the context of a world-devastating pandemic.
Methods: We conducted a randomized controlled trial in Hong Kong to evaluate the impact of seven vaccine messages on COVID-19 vaccine uptake (with the government slogan as the control). The participants included 127,000 individuals who googled COVID-19-related information during July-October 2021.
Results: The impact of vaccine messages on uptake varied substantially over time and among different groups of users. For example, the message that emphasized the indirect protection of vaccination on family members (i) increased overall uptake by 30% (6-59%) in July but had no effect afterwards for English language users; and (ii) had no effect on overall uptake for Chinese language users throughout the study. Such volatility and heterogeneity in message effectiveness highlight the limitations of one-size-fits-all and static vaccine communication.
Conclusions: Epidemic nowcasting should include real-time monitoring of vaccine hesitancy and message effectiveness, in order to adapt messaging appropriately. This dynamic dimension of surveillance has so far been underinvested. |
Link[37] Modelling the impact of timelines of testing and isolation on disease control
Author: Ao Li, Zhen Wang, Seyed M. Moghadas Publication date: 22 December 2022 Publication info: Infectious Disease Modelling, Volume 8, Issue 1, March 2023, Pages 58-71 Cited by: David Price 12:09 PM 25 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679878Seyed MoghadasSeyed Moghadas is an infectious disease modeller whose research includes mathematical and computational modelling in epidemiology and immunology. In particular, he is interested in the theoretical and computational aspects of mathematical models describing the underlying dynamics of infectious diseases, with a particular emphasis on establishing strong links between micro (individual) and macro (population) levels.10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6, 715831Diagnostic testing859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.11.008
| Excerpt / Summary [Infectious Disease Modelling, 14 December 2022]
Testing and isolation remain a key component of public health responses to both persistent and emerging infectious diseases. Although the value of these measures have been demonstrated in combating recent outbreaks including the COVID-19 pandemic and monkeypox, their impact depends critically on the timelines of testing and start of isolation during the course of disease. To investigate this impact, we developed a delay differential model and incorporated age-since-symptom-onset as a parameter for delay in testing. We then used the model to compare the outcomes of reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and rapid antigen (RA) testing methods when isolation starts either at the time of testing or at the time of test result. Parameterizing the model with estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and diagnostic sensitivity of the tests, we found that the reduction of disease transmission using the RA test can be comparable to that achieved by applying the RT-PCR test. Given constraints and inevitable delays associated with sample collection and laboratory assays in RT-PCR testing post symptom onset, self-administered RA tests with short turnaround times present a viable alternative for timely isolation of infectious cases. |
Link[38] Evaluating undercounts in epidemics: response to Maruotti et al. 2022
Author: Michael Li, Jonathan Dushoff, David J. D. Earn, Benjamin M. Bolker Publication date: 22 September 2022 Publication info: arXiv:2209.11334 [q-bio.PE] Cited by: David Price 12:18 PM 25 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (6) 679758Benjamin BolkerI’m a professor in the departments of Mathematics & Statistics and of Biology at McMaster University, and currently Director of the School of Computational Science and Engineering and Acting Associate Chair (Graduate) for Mathematics.10019D3ABAB, 679776David EarnProfessor of Mathematics and Faculty of Science Research Chair in Mathematical Epidemiology at McMaster University.10019D3ABAB, 679814Jonathan DushoffProfessor in the Department Of Biology at McMaster University.10019D3ABAB, 685445Michael WZ LiMichael Li is Senior Scientist in the Public Health Risk Science Division (PHRS) of the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) and a Research Associate at the South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA).10019D3ABAB, 701020CANMOD – PublicationsPublications by CANMOD Members144B5ACA0, 715667mpox859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2209.11334
| Excerpt / Summary [arXiv, 22 September 2022]
Maruotti et al. 2022 used a mark-recapture approach to estimate bounds on the true number of monkeypox infections in various countries. These approaches are fundamentally flawed; it is impossible to estimate undercounting based solely on a single stream of reported cases. Simulations based on a Richards curve for cumulative incidence show that, for reasonable epidemic parameters, the proposed methods estimate bounds on the ascertainment ratio of ≈0.2−0.5 roughly independently of the true ascertainment ratio. These methods should not be used. |
Link[39] The dynamics of the risk perception on a social network and its effect on disease dynamics
Author: Meili Li, Yuhan Ling, Junling Ma Publication date: 20 June 2023 Publication info: Infectious Disease Modelling, Volume 8, Issue 3, 2023, Pages 632-644, ISSN 2468-0427 Cited by: David Price 7:06 PM 26 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 679818Junling MaI am an associate professor in Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria. I received B.Sc. in Applied Mathematics in 1994, and M.Sc in Applied Mathematics in 1997, from Xi'an Jiaotong University, China. I received Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics from Princeton University in 2003.10019D3ABAB, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.05.00
| Excerpt / Summary [Infectious Disease Modelling, 20 June 2023]
The perceived infection risk changes individual behaviors, which further affects the disease dynamics. This perception is influenced by social communication, including surveying their social network neighbors about the fraction of infected neighbors and averaging their neighbors’ perception of the risk. We model the interaction of disease dynamics and risk perception on a two-layer random network that combines a social network layer with a contact network layer. We found that if information spreads much faster than disease, then all individuals converge on the true prevalence of the disease. On the other hand, if the two dynamics have comparable speeds, the risk perception still converges to a value uniformly on the network. However, the perception lags behind the true prevalence and has a lower peak value. We also study the behavior change caused by the perception of infection risk. This behavior change may affect the disease dynamics by reducing the transmission rate along the edges of the contact network or by breaking edges and isolating the infectious individuals. The effects on the basic reproduction number, the peak size, and the final size are studied. We found that these two effects give the same basic reproduction number. We find edge-breaking has a larger effect on reducing the final size, while reducing the transmission rate has a larger |
Link[40] The effects of disease control measures on the reproduction number of COVID-19 in British Columbia, Canada
Author: Meili Li, Ruijun Zhai, Junling Ma Publication date: 19 June 2023 Publication info: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 20(8), 13849–13863. Cited by: David Price 7:09 PM 26 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679818Junling MaI am an associate professor in Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria. I received B.Sc. in Applied Mathematics in 1994, and M.Sc in Applied Mathematics in 1997, from Xi'an Jiaotong University, China. I received Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics from Princeton University in 2003.10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2023616
| Excerpt / Summary [Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 19 June 2023]
We propose a new method to estimate the change of the effective reproduction number with time, due to either disease control measures or seasonally varying transmission rate. We validate our method using a simulated epidemic curve and show that our method can effectively estimate both sudden changes and gradual changes in the reproduction number. We apply our method to the COVID-19 case counts in British Columbia, Canada in 2020, and we show that strengthening control measures had a significant effect on the reproduction number, while relaxations in May (business reopening) and September (school reopening) had significantly increased the reproduction number from around 1 to around 1.7 at its peak value. Our method can be applied to other infectious diseases, such as pandemics and seasonal influenza. |
Link[41] Adaptive behaviors and vaccination on curbing COVID-19 transmission: Modeling simulations in eight countries
Author: Zhaowan Li, Jianguo Zhao, Yuhao Zhou, Lina Tian, Qihuai Liu, Huaiping Zhu, Guanghu Zhu Publication date: 14 December 2022 Publication info: Journal of Theoretical Biology, Volume 559, 2023, 111379, ISSN 0022-5193, Cited by: David Price 7:16 PM 26 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111379
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Theoretical Biology, 21 February 2023]
Current persistent outbreak of COVID-19 is triggering a series of collective responses to avoid infection. To further clarify the impact mechanism of adaptive protection behavior and vaccination, we developed a new transmission model via a delay differential system, which parameterized the roles of adaptive behaviors and vaccination, and allowed to simulate the dynamic infection process among people. By validating the model with surveillance data during March 2020 and October 2021 in America, India, South Africa, Philippines, Brazil, UK, Spain and Germany, we quantified the protection effect of adaptive behaviors by different forms of activity function. The modeling results indicated that (1) the adaptive activity function can be used as a good indicator for fitting the intervention outcome, which exhibited short-term awareness in these countries, and it could reduce the total human infections by 3.68, 26.16, 15.23, 4.23, 7.26, 1.65, 5.51 and 7.07 times, compared with the reporting; (2) for complete prevention, the average proportions of people with immunity should be larger than 90%, 92%, 86%, 71%, 92%, 84%, 82% and 76% with adaptive protection behaviors, or 91%, 97%, 94%, 77%, 92%, 88%, 85% and 90% without protection behaviors; and (3) the required proportion of humans being vaccinated is a sub-linear decreasing function of vaccine efficiency, with small heterogeneity in different countries. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on “Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics”. |
Link[42] Big data- and artificial intelligence-based hot-spot analysis of COVID-19: Gauteng, South Africa, as a case study
Author: Benjamin Lieberman, Jude Dzevela Kong, Roy Gusinow, Ali Asgary, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Joshua Choma, Salah-Eddine Dahbi, Kentaro Hayashi, Deepak Kar, Mary Kawonga, Mduduzi Mbada, Kgomotso Monnakgotla, James Orbinski, Xifeng Ruan, Finn Stevenson, Jianhong Wu, Bruce Mellado Publication date: 26 January 2023 Publication info: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, Volume 23, Article number: 19 (2023) Cited by: David Price 7:25 PM 26 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 704019Artificial intelligence859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: 26 January 2023
| Excerpt / Summary [BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, 26 January 2023]
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has developed into a pandemic. Data-driven techniques can be used to inform and guide public health decision- and policy-makers. In generalizing the spread of a virus over a large area, such as a province, it must be assumed that the transmission occurs as a stochastic process. It is therefore very difficult for policy and decision makers to understand and visualize the location specific dynamics of the virus on a more granular level. A primary concern is exposing local virus hot-spots, in order to inform and implement non-pharmaceutical interventions. A hot-spot is defined as an area experiencing exponential growth relative to the generalised growth of the pandemic. This paper uses the first and second waves of the COVID-19 epidemic in Gauteng Province, South Africa, as a case study. The study aims provide a data-driven methodology and comprehensive case study to expose location specific virus dynamics within a given area. The methodology uses an unsupervised Gaussian Mixture model to cluster cases at a desired granularity. This is combined with an epidemiological analysis to quantify each cluster’s severity, progression and whether it can be defined as a hot-spot. |
Link[43] A Quantification of Long Transient Dynamics
Author: A. Liu, F. M. G. Magpantay Publication date: 9 March 2022 Publication info: SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, Volume 82, Issue 2, April 2022, Pages: 381 - 407 Cited by: David Price 7:34 PM 26 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (1) 679784Felicia MagpantayFelicia Magpantay is an assistant professor in the Department of Mathematics & Statistics at Queen’s University.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1137/20M1367131
| Excerpt / Summary [SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, 9 March 2022]
The stability of equilibria and asymptotic behaviors of trajectories are often the primary focuses of mathematical modeling. However, many interesting phenomena that we would like to model, such as the “honeymoon period” of a disease after the onset of mass vaccination programs, are transient dynamics. Honeymoon periods can last for decades and can be important public health considerations. In many fields of science, especially in ecology, there is growing interest in a systematic study of transient dynamics. In this work, we attempt to provide a technical definition of “long transient dynamics” such as the honeymoon period and explain how these behaviors arise in systems of ordinary differential equations. We define a transient center, a point in state space that causes long transient behaviors, and derive some of its properties. In the end, we define reachable transient centers, which are transient centers that can be reached from initializations that do not need to be near the transient center. |
Link[44] A framework for long-lasting, slowly varying transient dynamics
Author: Ankai Liu, Felicia Maria G. Magpantay, Kenzu Abdella Publication date: 16 May 2023 Publication info: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 2023, Volume 20, Issue 7: 12130-12153 Cited by: David Price 7:40 PM 26 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 679784Felicia MagpantayFelicia Magpantay is an assistant professor in the Department of Mathematics & Statistics at Queen’s University.10019D3ABAB, 703962Ecology859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2023540
| Excerpt / Summary [Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 16 May 2023]
Much of the focus of applied dynamical systems is on asymptotic dynamics such as equilibria and periodic solutions. However, in many systems there are transient phenomena, such as temporary population collapses and the honeymoon period after the start of mass vaccination, that can last for a very long time and play an important role in ecological and epidemiological applications. In previous work we defined transient centers which are points in state space that give rise to arbitrarily long and arbitrarily slow transient dynamics. Here we present the mathematical properties of transient centers and provide further insight into these special points. We show that under certain conditions, the entire forward and backward trajectory of a transient center, as well as all its limit points must also be transient centers. We also derive conditions that can be used to verify which points are transient centers and whether those are reachable transient centers. Finally we present examples to demonstrate the utility of the theory, including applications to predatory-prey systems and disease transmission models, and show that the long transience noted in these models are generated by transient centers. |
Link[45] Mitigating co-circulation of seasonal influenza and COVID-19 pandemic in the presence of vaccination: A mathematical modeling approach
Author: Bushra Majeed, Jummy Funke David, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Zack McCarthy, Martin David Grunnill, Jane Heffernan, Jianhong Wu, Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima Publication date: 4 January 2023 Publication info: Frontiers in Public Health, 4 January 2023 Cited by: David Price 7:44 PM 26 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (6) 679806Jane HeffernanJane Heffernan is a professor of infectious disease modelling in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at York University. She is a co-director of the Canadian Centre for Disease Modelling, and she leads national and international networks in mathematical immunology and the modelling of waning and boosting immunity.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 703974Influenza859FDEF6, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715767Woldegebriel Assefa WoldegerimaDr. Woldegerima, knows as "Assefa", is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.1086849
| Excerpt / Summary [Frontiers in Public Health, 4 January 2023]
The co-circulation of two respiratory infections with similar symptoms in a population can significantly overburden a healthcare system by slowing the testing and treatment. The persistent emergence of contagious variants of SARS-CoV-2, along with imperfect vaccines and their waning protections, have increased the likelihood of new COVID-19 outbreaks taking place during a typical flu season. Here, we developed a mathematical model for the co-circulation dynamics of COVID-19 and influenza, under different scenarios of influenza vaccine coverage, COVID-19 vaccine booster coverage and efficacy, and testing capacity. We investigated the required minimal and optimal coverage of COVID-19 booster (third) and fourth doses, in conjunction with the influenza vaccine, to avoid the coincidence of infection peaks for both diseases in a single season. We show that the testing delay brought on by the high number of influenza cases impacts the dynamics of influenza and COVID-19 transmission. The earlier the peak of the flu season and the greater the number of infections with flu-like symptoms, the greater the risk of flu transmission, which slows down COVID-19 testing, resulting in the delay of complete isolation of patients with COVID-19 who have not been isolated before the clinical presentation of symptoms and have been continuing their normal daily activities. Furthermore, our simulations stress the importance of vaccine uptake for preventing infection, severe illness, and hospitalization at the individual level and for disease outbreak control at the population level to avoid putting strain on already weak and overwhelmed healthcare systems. As such, ensuring optimal vaccine coverage for COVID-19 and influenza to reduce the burden of these infections is paramount. We showed that by keeping the influenza vaccine coverage about 35% and increasing the coverage of booster or fourth dose of COVID-19 not only reduces the infections with COVID-19 but also can delay its peak time. If the influenza vaccine coverage is increased to 55%, unexpectedly, it increases the peak size of influenza infections slightly, while it reduces the peak size of COVID-19 as well as significantly delays the peaks of both of these diseases. Mask-wearing coupled with a moderate increase in the vaccine uptake may mitigate COVID-19 and prevent an influenza outbreak. |
Link[46] Extensive SARS-CoV-2 testing reveals BA.1/BA.2 asymptomatic rates and underreporting in school children
Author: Maria M Martignoni, Zahra Mohammadi, J Concepción Loredo-Osti, Amy Hurford Publication date: 1 April 2023 Publication info: Can Commun Dis Rep 2023;49(4):155−65. Cited by: David Price 10:32 AM 27 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 679752Amy HurfordAmy Hurford is an Associate Professor jointly appointed in the Department of Biology and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador. 10019D3ABAB, 701624Zahra MohammadiPostdoctoral Fellow, Mathematics for Public health, Fields Institute, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Memorial University of Newfoundland.10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715617Schools859FDEF6, 715831Diagnostic testing859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.14745/ccdr.v49i04a08
| Excerpt / Summary [Canada Communicable Disease Report, April 2023]
Background: Case underreporting during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been a major challenge to the planning and evaluation of public health responses. School children were often considered a less vulnerable population and underreporting rates may have been particularly high. In January 2022, the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) was experiencing an Omicron variant outbreak (BA.1/BA.2 subvariants) and public health officials recommended that all returning students complete two rapid antigen tests (RATs) to be performed three days apart.
Methods: To estimate the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), we asked parents and guardians to report the results of the RATs completed by K–12 students (approximately 59,000 students) using an online survey.
Results: When comparing the survey responses with the number of cases and tests reported by the NL testing system, we found that one out of every 4.3 (95% CI, 3.1–5.3) positive households were captured by provincial case count, with 5.1% positivity estimated from the RAT results and 1.2% positivity reported by the provincial testing system. Of positive test results, 62.9% (95% CI, 44.3–83.0) were reported for elementary school students, and the remaining 37.1% (95% CI, 22.7–52.9) were reported for junior high and high school students. Asymptomatic infections were 59.8% of the positive cases. Given the low survey participation rate (3.5%), our results may suffer from sample selection biases and should be interpreted with caution.
Conclusion: The underreporting ratio is consistent with ratios calculated from serology data and provides insights into infection prevalence and asymptomatic infections in school children; a currently understudied population. |
Link[47] Rotational worker vaccination provides indirect protection to vulnerable groups in regions with low COVID-19 prevalence
Author: Maria M. Martignoni, Proton Rahman, Amy Hurford Publication date: 13 December 2021 Publication info: AIMS Mathematics, 2022, Volume 7, Issue 3: 3988-4003. Cited by: David Price 8:29 PM 27 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679752Amy HurfordAmy Hurford is an Associate Professor jointly appointed in the Department of Biology and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador. 10019D3ABAB, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715454Workforce impact859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3934/math.2022220
| Excerpt / Summary [AIMS Mathematics, 13 December 2021]
As COVID-19 vaccines become available, different model-based approaches have been developed to evaluate strategic priorities for vaccine allocation to reduce severe illness. One strategy is to directly prioritize groups that are likely to experience medical complications due to COVID-19, such as older adults. A second strategy is to limit community spread by reducing importations, for example by vaccinating members of the mobile labour force, such as rotational workers. This second strategy may be appropriate for regions with low disease prevalence, where importations are a substantial fraction of all cases and reducing the importation rate reduces the risk of community outbreaks, which can provide significant indirect protection for vulnerable individuals. Current studies have focused on comparing vaccination strategies in the absence of importations, and have not considered allocating vaccines to reduce the importation rate. Here, we provide an analytical criteria to compare the reduction in the risk of hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admission over four months when either older adults or rotational workers are prioritized for vaccination. Vaccinating rotational workers (assumed to be 6,000 individuals and about 1% of the Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) population) could reduce the average risk of hospitalization and ICU admission by 42%, if no community spread is observed at the time of vaccination, because epidemic spread is reduced and vulnerable individuals are indirectly protected. In contrast, vaccinating all individuals aged 75 and older (about 43,300 individuals, or 8% of the NL population) would lead to a 24% reduction in the average risk of hospitalization, and to a 45% reduction in the average risk of ICU admission, because a large number of individuals at high risk from COVID-19 are now vaccinated. Therefore, reducing the risk of hospitalization and ICU admission of the susceptible population by reducing case importations would require a significantly lower number of vaccines. Benefits of vaccinating rotational workers decrease with increasing infection prevalence in the community. Prioritizing members of the mobile labour force should be considered as an efficient strategy to indirectly protect vulnerable groups from COVID-19 exposure in regions with low disease prevalence. |
Link[48] Downsizing of COVID-19 contact tracing in highly immune populations
Author: Maria M. Martignoni, Josh Renault, Joseph Baafi, Amy Hurford Publication date: 10 June 2022 Publication info: PLoS ONE 17(6): e0268586 Cited by: David Price 8:34 PM 27 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679752Amy HurfordAmy Hurford is an Associate Professor jointly appointed in the Department of Biology and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador. 10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715294Contact tracing859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0268586
| Excerpt / Summary [PLoS ONE, 10 June 2022]
Contact tracing is a key component of successful management of COVID-19. Contacts of infected individuals are asked to quarantine, which can significantly slow down (or prevent) community spread. Contact tracing is particularly effective when infections are detected quickly, when contacts are traced with high probability, when the initial number of cases is low, and when social distancing and border restrictions are in place. However, the magnitude of the individual contribution of these factors in reducing epidemic spread and the impact of population immunity (due to either previous infection or vaccination), in determining contact tracing outputs is not fully understood. We present a delayed differential equation model to investigate how the immunity status and the relaxation of social distancing requirements affect contact tracing practices. We investigate how the minimal contact tracing efficiency required to keep an outbreak under control depends on the contact rate and on the proportion of immune individuals. Additionally, we consider how delays in outbreak detection and increased case importation rates affect the number of contacts to be traced daily. We show that in communities that have reached a certain immunity status, a lower contact tracing efficiency is required to avoid a major outbreak, and delayed outbreak detection and relaxation of border restrictions do not lead to a significantly higher risk of overwhelming contact tracing. We find that investing in testing programs, rather than increasing the contact tracing capacity, has a larger impact in determining whether an outbreak will be controllable. This is because early detection activates contact tracing, which will slow, and eventually reverse exponential growth, while the contact tracing capacity is a threshold that will easily become overwhelmed if exponential growth is not curbed. Finally, we evaluate quarantine effectiveness in relation to the immunity status of the population and for different viral variants. We show that quarantine effectiveness decreases with increasing proportion of immune individuals, and increases in the presence of more transmissible variants. These results suggest that a cost-effective approach is to establish different quarantine rules for immune and nonimmune individuals, where rules should depend on viral transmissibility after vaccination or infection. Altogether, our study provides quantitative information for contact tracing downsizing in vaccinated populations or in populations that have already experienced large community outbreaks, to guide COVID-19 exit strategies. |
Link[49] Quantifying the shift in social contact patterns in response to non-pharmaceutical interventions
Author: Zachary McCarthy, Yanyu Xiao, Francesca Scarabel, Biao Tang, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Kyeongah Nah, Jane M. Heffernan, Ali Asgary, V. Kumar Murty, Nicholas H. Ogden, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 1 December 2020 Publication info: Journal of Mathematics in Industry, Volume 10, Article number: 28 (2020) Cited by: David Price 8:44 PM 27 November 2023 GMT
Citerank: (9) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 679806Jane HeffernanJane Heffernan is a professor of infectious disease modelling in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at York University. She is a co-director of the Canadian Centre for Disease Modelling, and she leads national and international networks in mathematical immunology and the modelling of waning and boosting immunity.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679893Kumar MurtyProfessor Kumar Murty is in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Toronto. His research fields are Analytic Number Theory, Algebraic Number Theory, Arithmetic Algebraic Geometry and Information Security. He is the founder of the GANITA lab, co-founder of Prata Technologies and PerfectCloud. His interest in mathematics ranges from the pure study of the subject to its applications in data and information security.10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 714608Charting a FutureCharting a Future for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling in Canada – April 2023 [1] 2794CAE1, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6, 715329Nick OgdenNicholas Ogden is a senior research scientist and Director of the Public Health Risk Sciences Division within the National Microbiology Laboratory at the Public Health Agency of Canada.10019D3ABAB, 715617Schools859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13362-020-00096-y
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Mathematics in Industry, 1 December 2020]
Social contact mixing plays a critical role in influencing the transmission routes of infectious diseases. Moreover, quantifying social contact mixing patterns and their variations in a rapidly evolving pandemic intervened by changing public health measures is key for retroactive evaluation and proactive assessment of the effectiveness of different age- and setting-specific interventions. Contact mixing patterns have been used to inform COVID-19 pandemic public health decision-making; but a rigorously justified methodology to identify setting-specific contact mixing patterns and their variations in a rapidly developing pandemic, which can be informed by readily available data, is in great demand and has not yet been established. Here we fill in this critical gap by developing and utilizing a novel methodology, integrating social contact patterns derived from empirical data with a disease transmission model, that enables the usage of age-stratified incidence data to infer age-specific susceptibility, daily contact mixing patterns in workplace, household, school and community settings; and transmission acquired in these settings under different physical distancing measures. We demonstrated the utility of this methodology by performing an analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ontario, Canada. We quantified the age- and setting (household, workplace, community, and school)-specific mixing patterns and their evolution during the escalation of public health interventions in Ontario, Canada. We estimated a reduction in the average individual contact rate from 12.27 to 6.58 contacts per day, with an increase in household contacts, following the implementation of control measures. We also estimated increasing trends by age in both the susceptibility to infection by SARS-CoV-2 and the proportion of symptomatic individuals diagnosed. Inferring the age- and setting-specific social contact mixing and key age-stratified epidemiological parameters, in the presence of evolving control measures, is critical to inform decision- and policy-making for the current COVID-19 pandemic. |
Link[50] Importation models for travel-related SARS-CoV-2 cases reported in Newfoundland and Labrador during the COVID-19 pandemic
Author: Zahra Mohammadi, Monica Cojocaru, Julien Arino, Amy Hurford Publication date: 12 June 2023 Publication info: medRxiv 2023.06.08.23291136 Cited by: David Price 8:46 PM 27 November 2023 GMT
Citerank: (7) 679752Amy HurfordAmy Hurford is an Associate Professor jointly appointed in the Department of Biology and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador. 10019D3ABAB, 679817Julien ArinoProfessor and Faculty of Science Research Chair in Fundamental Science with the Department of Mathematics at the University of Manitoba.10019D3ABAB, 701148Implementation of mobility restrictionsThe implementation of mobility restrictions, in combination with vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions, to meet the needs of small communities during a pandemic.859FDEF6, 701624Zahra MohammadiPostdoctoral Fellow, Mathematics for Public health, Fields Institute, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Memorial University of Newfoundland.10019D3ABAB, 703963Mobility859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715762Monica CojocaruProfessor in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at the University of Guelph. 10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.06.08.23291136
| Excerpt / Summary [medRxiv, 12 June 2023]
During the COVID-19 pandemic there was substantial variation between countries in the severity of the travel restrictions implemented suggesting a need for better importation models. Data to evaluate the accuracy of importation models is available for the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL; September 2020 to June 2021) as arriving travelers were frequently tested for SARS-CoV-2 and travel-related cases were reported. Travel volume to NL was estimated from flight data, and travel declaration forms completed at entry to Canada, and at entry to NL during the pandemic. We found that during the pandemic travel to NL decreased by 82%, the percentage of travelers arriving from Québec decreased (from 14 to 4%), and from Alberta increased (from 7 to 17%). We derived and validated an epidemiological model predicting the number of travelers testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 after arrival in NL, but found that statistical models with less description of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, and with parameters fitted from the validation data more accurately predicted the daily number of travel-related cases reported in NL originating from Canada (R2 = 0.55, ΔAICc = 137). Our results highlight the importance of testing travelers and reporting travel-related cases as these data are needed for importation models to support public health decisions. |
Link[51] Human behaviour, NPI and mobility reduction effects on COVID-19 transmission in different countries of the world
Author: Zahra Mohammadi, Monica Gabriela Cojocaru, Edward Wolfgang Thommes Publication date: 22 August 2022 Publication info: BMC Public Health volume 22, Article number: 1594 (2022) Cited by: David Price 8:55 PM 27 November 2023 GMT
Citerank: (9) 701624Zahra MohammadiPostdoctoral Fellow, Mathematics for Public health, Fields Institute, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Memorial University of Newfoundland.10019D3ABAB, 703963Mobility859FDEF6, 704036Immunology859FDEF6, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6, 715419Edward Thommes Edward W. Thommes is an Adjunct Professor of Mathematics at the University of Guelph and at York University. He is a Global Modeling Lead in the Modeling, Epidemiology and Data Science (MEDS) team of Sanofi Vaccines, an Affiliate Researcher in the Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation (WICI), and a member of the Strategic Advisory Committee for the Mathematics for Public Health program at the Fields Institute.10019D3ABAB, 715762Monica CojocaruProfessor in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at the University of Guelph. 10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13921-3
| Excerpt / Summary [BMC Public Health, 22 August 2022]
Background: The outbreak of Coronavirus disease, which originated in Wuhan, China in 2019, has affected the lives of billions of people globally. Throughout 2020, the reproduction number of COVID-19 was widely used by decision-makers to explain their strategies to control the pandemic.
Methods: In this work, we deduce and analyze both initial and effective reproduction numbers for 12 diverse world regions between February and December of 2020. We consider mobility reductions, mask wearing and compliance with masks, mask efficacy values alongside other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in each region to get further insights in how each of the above factored into each region’s SARS-COV-2 transmission dynamic.
Results: We quantify in each region the following reductions in the observed effective reproduction numbers of the pandemic: i) reduction due to decrease in mobility (as captured in Google mobility reports); ii) reduction due to mask wearing and mask compliance; iii) reduction due to other NPI’s, over and above the ones identified in i) and ii).
Conclusion: In most cases mobility reduction coming from nationwide lockdown measures has helped stave off the initial wave in countries who took these types of measures. Beyond the first waves, mask mandates and compliance, together with social-distancing measures (which we refer to as other NPI’s) have allowed some control of subsequent disease spread. The methodology we propose here is novel and can be applied to other respiratory diseases such as influenza or RSV. |
Link[52] Determination of significant immunological timescales from mRNA-LNP-based vaccines in humans
Author: Iain R. Moyles, Chapin S. Korosec, Jane M. Heffernan Publication date: 30 April 2023 Publication info: Journal of Mathematical Biology, Volume 86, Article number: 86 (2023) Cited by: David Price 0:28 AM 29 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679799Iain MoylesAssistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University. 10019D3ABAB, 679806Jane HeffernanJane Heffernan is a professor of infectious disease modelling in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at York University. She is a co-director of the Canadian Centre for Disease Modelling, and she leads national and international networks in mathematical immunology and the modelling of waning and boosting immunity.10019D3ABAB, 701222OMNI – Publications144B5ACA0 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-023-01919-3
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Mathematical Biology, 30 April 2023]
A compartment model for an in-host liquid nanoparticle delivered mRNA vaccine is presented. Through non-dimensionalisation, five timescales are identified that dictate the lifetime of the vaccine in-host: decay of interferon gamma, antibody priming, autocatalytic growth, antibody peak and decay, and interleukin cessation. Through asymptotic analysis we are able to obtain semi-analytical solutions in each of the time regimes which allows us to predict maximal concentrations and better understand parameter dependence in the model. We compare our model to 22 data sets for the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 mRNA vaccines demonstrating good agreement. Using our analysis, we estimate the values for each of the five timescales in each data set and predict maximal concentrations of plasma B-cells, antibody, and interleukin. Through our comparison, we do not observe any discernible differences between vaccine candidates and sex. However, we do identify an age dependence, specifically that vaccine activation takes longer and that peak antibody occurs sooner in patients aged 55 and greater. |
Link[53] Integrated epidemiological, clinical, and molecular evidence points to an earlier origin of the current monkeypox outbreak and a complex route of exposure
Author: Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Jude D. Kong, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 19 October 2022 Publication info: Journal of Medical Virology, Volume 95, Issue 1 e28244 Cited by: David Price 1:32 AM 29 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 715667mpox859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.28244
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Link[54] Identifying Vaccine-hesitant Subgroups in the Western Pacific: A Latent Class Analysis
Author: Yongjin Choi, Kathy Leung, Joseph Wu, Leesa Lin, Heidi Larson Publication date: 4 May 2023 Publication info: Research Square, 4 May 2023 Cited by: David Price 10:14 PM 29 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2702702/v1
| Excerpt / Summary [Research Square, 4 May 2023]
Background: Vaccine hesitancy has seriously compromised the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out across the Western Pacific; nevertheless, evidence-based recommendations that account for the heterogeneity of vaccine-hesitant populations in this region remain lacking. To help design customized vaccine communication strategies, we sought to investigate the profile of the vaccine-hesitant populations in Cambodia, Japan, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Mongolia, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, and Viet Nam.
Methods: Using 16,408 survey responses from an international survey distributed in 2021 and 2022, we identified hidden subgroups by conducting latent class analysis (LCA) and examined their vaccine acceptance and booster uptake by using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regressions.
Findings: Our LCA approach identified six classes: college students, distrusters of health care providers (HCPs), stay-at-home mothers, the elderly, compliant pragmatists, and general working population. Booster uptake were significantly low in two groups: college students [13 percentage points; 95% CI -0.21 to -0.05] and HCP distrusters [8 percentage points; 95% CI -0.15 to -0.01]; these groups’ acceptance were also similarly low. Stay-at-home mothers’ acceptance and uptake were comparable, but this group took a large portion of vaccine-hesitant people in the Philippines. The profiles of the vaccine-hesitant populations in each country were compared and categorized into four groups, depending on the composition of classes that account for the unvaccination population.
Interpretation: The results of this study suggest that drivers of vaccine hesitancy may vary by country and indicate that each country needs a customized strategy that reflects the profile of its vaccine-hesitant population. The proposed recommendations for each country can identify the target population for designing effective vaccine communication strategies. |
Link[55] Disease transmission and mass gatherings: a case study on meningococcal infection during Hajj
Author: Laurent Coudeville, Amine Amiche, Ashrafur Rahman, Julien Arino, Biao Tang, Ombeline Jollivet, Alp Dogu, Edward Thommes, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 22 March 2022 Publication info: BMC Infectious Diseases, Volume 22, Article number: 275 (2022) Cited by: David Price 10:20 PM 29 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 703963Mobility859FDEF6, 715419Edward Thommes Edward W. Thommes is an Adjunct Professor of Mathematics at the University of Guelph and at York University. He is a Global Modeling Lead in the Modeling, Epidemiology and Data Science (MEDS) team of Sanofi Vaccines, an Affiliate Researcher in the Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation (WICI), and a member of the Strategic Advisory Committee for the Mathematics for Public Health program at the Fields Institute.10019D3ABAB, 715688Neisseria meningitidis859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-022-07234-4
| Excerpt / Summary [BMC Infectious Diseases, 22 March 2022]
Background: Mass gatherings can not only trigger major outbreaks on-site but also facilitate global spread of infectious pathogens. Hajj is one of the largest mass gathering events worldwide where over two million pilgrims from all over the world gather annually creating intense congestion.
Methods: We developed a meta-population model to represent the transmission dynamics of Neisseria meningitidis and the impact of Hajj pilgrimage on the risk of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) for pilgrims population, local population at the Hajj site and country of origin of Hajj pilgrims. This model was calibrated using data on IMD over 17 years (1995–2011) and further used to simulate potential changes in vaccine policy and endemic conditions.
Results: The effect of increased density of contacts during Hajj was estimated to generate a 78-fold increase in disease transmission that impacts not only pilgrims but also the local population. Quadrivalent ACWY vaccination was found to be very effective in reducing the risk of outbreak during Hajj. Hajj has more limited impact on IMD transmission and exportation in the pilgrim countries of origin, although not negligible given the size of the population considered.
Conclusion: The analysis performed highlighted the amplifying effect of mass gathering on N. meningitidis transmission and confirm vaccination as a very effective preventive measure to mitigate outbreak risks. |
Link[56] The need for linked genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2
Author: Caroline Colijn, David JD Earn, Jonathan Dushoff, Nicholas H Ogden, Michael Li, Natalie Knox, Gary Van Domselaar, Kristyn Franklin, Gordon Jolly, Sarah P Otto Publication date: 6 April 2022 Publication info: Can Commun Dis Rep. 2022 Apr 6; 48(4): 131–139, PMCID: PMC9017802PMID: 35480703 Cited by: David Price 10:33 PM 29 November 2023 GMT
Citerank: (11) 679761Caroline ColijnDr. Caroline Colijn works at the interface of mathematics, evolution, infection and public health, and leads the MAGPIE research group. She joined SFU's Mathematics Department in 2018 as a Canada 150 Research Chair in Mathematics for Infection, Evolution and Public Health. She has broad interests in applications of mathematics to questions in evolution and public health, and was a founding member of Imperial College London's Centre for the Mathematics of Precision Healthcare.10019D3ABAB, 679814Jonathan DushoffProfessor in the Department Of Biology at McMaster University.10019D3ABAB, 679875Sarah OttoProfessor in Zoology. Theoretical biologist, Canada Research Chair in Theoretical and Experimental Evolution, and Killam Professor at the University of British Columbia.10019D3ABAB, 685445Michael WZ LiMichael Li is Senior Scientist in the Public Health Risk Science Division (PHRS) of the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) and a Research Associate at the South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA).10019D3ABAB, 701020CANMOD – PublicationsPublications by CANMOD Members144B5ACA0, 701023GenomicsWhile virus genomes can describe the global context of introductions and origins of local clusters of cases, CANMOD will focus on building methods for characterizing and modelling local transmission once it is established, and for surveillance for viral determinants of increased fitness and of enhanced risk of spillover, virulence and transmission.859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 707634Gary Van DomselaarDr. Gary Van Domselaar, PhD (University of Alberta, 2003) is the Chief of the Bioinformatics Laboratory at the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg Canada, and Adjunct Professor in the Department of Medical Microbiology at the University of Manitoba.10019D3ABAB, 708734Genomics859FDEF6, 715277Covid-19Covid-19 » Relevance » Genomics10000FFFACD, 715329Nick OgdenNicholas Ogden is a senior research scientist and Director of the Public Health Risk Sciences Division within the National Microbiology Laboratory at the Public Health Agency of Canada.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.14745/ccdr.v48i04a03
| Excerpt / Summary [Canada Communicable Disease Report, 6 April 2022]
Genomic surveillance during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been key to the timely identification of virus variants with important public health consequences, such as variants that can transmit among and cause severe disease in both vaccinated or recovered individuals. The rapid emergence of the Omicron variant highlighted the speed with which the extent of a threat must be assessed. Rapid sequencing and public health institutions’ openness to sharing sequence data internationally give an unprecedented opportunity to do this; however, assessing the epidemiological and clinical properties of any new variant remains challenging. Here we highlight a “band of four” key data sources that can help to detect viral variants that threaten COVID-19 management: 1) genetic (virus sequence) data; 2) epidemiological and geographic data; 3) clinical and demographic data; and 4) immunization data. We emphasize the benefits that can be achieved by linking data from these sources and by combining data from these sources with virus sequence data. The considerable challenges of making genomic data available and linked with virus and patient attributes must be balanced against major consequences of not doing so, especially if new variants of concern emerge and spread without timely detection and action. |
Link[57] A cross-country analysis of macroeconomic responses to COVID-19 pandemic using Twitter sentiments
Author: Zahra Movahedi Nia, Ali Ahmadi, Nicola L. Bragazzi, Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima, Bruce Mellado, Jianhong Wu, James Orbinski, Ali Asgary, Jude Dzevela Kong Publication date: 24 August 2022 Publication info: PLOS ONE, 17(8), e0272208 Cited by: David Price 10:59 PM 29 November 2023 GMT
Citerank: (7) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 703957Economics859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715666Social networks859FDEF6, 715767Woldegebriel Assefa WoldegerimaDr. Woldegerima, knows as "Assefa", is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0272208
| Excerpt / Summary [PLOS ONE, 24 August 2022]
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on the global economy. In this paper, we use the Phillips curve to compare and analyze the macroeconomics of three different countries with distinct income levels, namely, lower-middle (Nigeria), upper-middle (South Africa), and high (Canada) income. We aim to (1) find macroeconomic changes in the three countries during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic time, (2) compare the countries in terms of response to the COVID-19 economic crisis, and (3) compare their expected economic reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic in the near future. An advantage to our work is that we analyze macroeconomics on a monthly basis to capture the shocks and rapid changes caused by on and off rounds of lockdowns. We use the volume and social sentiments of the Twitter data to approximate the macroeconomic statistics. We apply four different machine learning algorithms to estimate the unemployment rate of South Africa and Nigeria on monthly basis. The results show that at the beginning of the pandemic the unemployment rate increased for all the three countries. However, Canada was able to control and reduce the unemployment rate during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, in line with the Phillips curve short-run, the inflation rate of Canada increased to a level that has never occurred in more than fifteen years. Nigeria and South Africa have not been able to control the unemployment rate and did not return to the pre-COVID-19 level. Yet, the inflation rate has increased in both countries. The inflation rate is still comparable to the pre-COVID-19 level in South Africa, but based on the Phillips curve short-run, it will increase further, if the unemployment rate decreases. Unfortunately, Nigeria is experiencing a horrible stagflation and a wild increase in both unemployment and inflation rates. This shows how vulnerable lower-middle-income countries could be to lockdowns and economic restrictions. In the near future, the main concern for all the countries is the high inflation rate. This work can potentially lead to more targeted and publicly acceptable policies based on social media content. |
Link[58] A Twitter dataset for Monkeypox
Author: Zahra M. Nia, Nicola L. Bragazzi, Jianhong Wu, Jude D. Kong Publication date: 1 June 2023 Publication info: Data in Brief, Volume 48, June 2023, 109118, ISSN 2352-3409, Cited by: David Price 11:00 PM 29 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 715666Social networks859FDEF6, 715667mpox859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2023.109118
| Excerpt / Summary [Data in Brief, 6 June 2023]
After struggling with COVID-19 pandemic for two years, the world is finally recovering from this crisis. Nonetheless, another virus, Monkeypox, is quickly spreading throughout the world and in non-endemic regions and continents, threatening the world to a new pandemic. Twitter as a popular social media has successfully been used for predicting and controlling outbreaks. Much research previously has been done for building early warning systems, trend prediction, and misinformation and fake news detection. Since tweets are not accessible to all researchers, in this work, a publicly available dataset containing 2400202 tweets gathered from May first to December twenty-fifth, 2022 is presented. Twitter developers academic researcher API which returns all the tweets matching a given query was used to gather the dataset. To this end, the full archive search and keywords related to Monkeypox and its equivalents in other languages, i.e. Monkeypox or “monkey pox” or “viruela dei mono” or “variole du singe” or “variola do macoco” were used. The retweets were excluded using the negation operator, and the tweet ids and user ids were extracted and shared with public. Approximately, 1.79 percent (43047 number) of tweets were geotagged. To visualize the geotagged tweets, the longitude and latitude of the bounding box coordinates were averaged. This work will help researchers shed light on the news, patterns, and on-going discussions of Monkeypox on social media, identify hotspots, and help contain the Monkeypox virus. |
Link[59] Adaptive changes in sexual behavior in the high-risk population in response to human monkeypox transmission in Canada can help control the outbreak: Insights from a two-group, two-route epidemic model
Author: Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Qing Han, Sarafa Adewale Iyaniwura, Andrew Omame, Aminath Shausan, Xiaoying Wang, Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima, Jianhong Wu, Jude Dzevela Kong Publication date: 11 February 2023 Publication info: Journal of Medical Virology, Volume 95, Issue 4 e28575 Cited by: David Price 11:01 PM 29 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 715667mpox859FDEF6, 715767Woldegebriel Assefa WoldegerimaDr. Woldegerima, knows as "Assefa", is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.28575
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Medical Virology, 11 February 2023]
Monkeypox, a zoonotic disease, is emerging as a potential sexually transmitted infection/disease, with underlying transmission mechanisms still unclear. We devised a risk-structured, compartmental model, incorporating sexual behavior dynamics. We compared different strategies targeting the high-risk population: a scenario of control policies geared toward the use of condoms and/or sexual abstinence (robust control strategy) with risk compensation behavior change, and a scenario of control strategies with behavior change in response to the doubling rate (adaptive control strategy). Monkeypox's basic reproduction number is 1.464, 0.0066, and 1.461 in the high-risk, low-risk, and total populations, respectively, with the high-risk group being the major driver of monkeypox spread. Policies imposing condom use or sexual abstinence need to achieve a 35% minimum compliance rate to stop further transmission, while a combination of both can curb the spread with 10% compliance to abstinence and 25% to condom use. With risk compensation, the only option is to impose sexual abstinence by at least 35%. Adaptive control is more effective than robust control where the daily sexual contact number is reduced proportionally and remains constant thereafter, shortening the time to epidemic peak, lowering its size, facilitating disease attenuation, and playing a key role in controlling the current outbreak. |
Link[60] A wastewater-based epidemic model for SARS-CoV-2 with application to three Canadian cities
Author: Shokoofeh Nourbakhsh, Aamir Fazil, Michael Li, Chand S. Mangat, Shelley W. Peterson, Jade Daigle, Stacie Langner, Jayson Shurgold, Patrick D’Aoust, Robert Delatolla, Elizabeth Mercier, Xiaoli Pang, Bonita E. Lee, Rebecca Stuart, Shinthuja Wijayasri, David Champredon Publication date: 21 April 2022 Publication info: Epidemics, Volume 39, June 2022, 100560, ISSN 1755-4365, Cited by: David Price 11:05 PM 29 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 685445Michael WZ LiMichael Li is Senior Scientist in the Public Health Risk Science Division (PHRS) of the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) and a Research Associate at the South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA).10019D3ABAB, 704022Surveillance859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 708744Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) 859FDEF6, 715283David ChampredonDr. David Champredon is a senior scientist at the Public Health Agency of Canada. His work focuses on modelling the spread of infectious diseases at the population level, especially respiratory and sexually transmitted infections. During the past two years, he supported the modelling efforts to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly wastewater-based modelling.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100560
| Excerpt / Summary [Epidemics, 21 April 2022]
The COVID-19 pandemic has stimulated wastewater-based surveillance, allowing public health to track the epidemic by monitoring the concentration of the genetic fingerprints of SARS-CoV-2 shed in wastewater by infected individuals. Wastewater-based surveillance for COVID-19 is still in its infancy. In particular, the quantitative link between clinical cases observed through traditional surveillance and the signals from viral concentrations in wastewater is still developing and hampers interpretation of the data and actionable public-health decisions. We present a modelling framework that includes both SARS-CoV-2 transmission at the population level and the fate of SARS-CoV-2 RNA particles in the sewage system after faecal shedding by infected persons in the population. Using our mechanistic representation of the combined clinical/wastewater system, we perform exploratory simulations to quantify the effect of surveillance effectiveness, public-health interventions and vaccination on the discordance between clinical and wastewater signals. We also apply our model to surveillance data from three Canadian cities to provide wastewater-informed estimates for the actual prevalence, the effective reproduction number and incidence forecasts. We find that wastewater-based surveillance, paired with this model, can complement clinical surveillance by supporting the estimation of key epidemiological metrics and hence better triangulate the state of an epidemic using this alternative data source. |
Link[61] Under-reporting of COVID-19 in the Northern Health Authority region of British Columbia
Author: Matthew R. P. Parker, Yangming Li, Lloyd T. Elliott, Junling Ma, Laura L. E. Cowen Publication date: 1 November 2021 Publication info: Canadian Journal of Statistics, Volume 49, Issue 4 p. 1018-1038 Cited by: David Price 11:33 PM 29 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679826Laura CowenAssociate Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Victoria.10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 7147033e N-mixture (hidden Markov) type models123AECCD8, 715254Lloyd T. ElliottAssistant Professor, Statistics and Actuarial Science at Simon Fraser University.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/cjs.11664
| Excerpt / Summary [Canadian Journal of Statistics, 1 November 2021]
Asymptomatic and pauci-symptomatic presentations of COVID-19 along with restrictive testing protocols result in undetected COVID-19 cases. Estimating undetected cases is crucial to understanding the true severity of the outbreak. We introduce a new hierarchical disease dynamics model based on the N-mixtures hidden population framework. The new models make use of three sets of disease count data per region: reported cases, recoveries and deaths. Treating the first two as under-counted through binomial thinning, we model the true population state at each time point by partitioning the diseased population into the active, recovered and died categories. Both domestic spread and imported cases are considered. These models are applied to estimate the level of under-reporting of COVID-19 in the Northern Health Authority region of British Columbia, Canada, during 30 weeks of the provincial recovery plan. Parameter covariates are easily implemented and used to improve model estimates. We compare two distinct methods of model-fitting for this case study: (1) maximum likelihood estimation, and (2) Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo. The two methods agreed exactly in their estimates of under-reporting rate. When accounting for changes in weekly testing volumes, we found under-reporting rates varying from 60.2% to 84.2%. |
Link[62] Imprinted Anti-Hemagglutinin and Anti-Neuraminidase Antibody Responses after Childhood Infections of A(H1N1) and A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza Viruses
Author: Pavithra Daulagala, Brian R. Mann, Kathy Leung, Eric H. Y. Lau, Louise Yung, Ruipeng Lei, Sarea I. N. Nizami, Joseph T. Wu, Susan S. Chiu, Rodney S. Daniels, Nicholas C. Wu, David Wentworth, Malik Peiris, Hui-Ling Yen Publication date: 18 April 2023 Publication info: MBio, 14(3), 18 April 2023 Cited by: David Price 11:45 PM 29 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 703974Influenza859FDEF6, 704036Immunology859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1128/mbio.00084-23
| Excerpt / Summary [MBio, 18 April 2023]
Immune imprinting is a driver known to shape the anti-hemagglutinin (HA) antibody landscape of individuals born within the same birth cohort. With the HA and neuraminidase (NA) proteins evolving at different rates under immune selection pressures, anti-HA and anti-NA antibody responses since childhood influenza virus infections have not been evaluated in parallel at the individual level. This is partly due to the limited knowledge of changes in NA antigenicity, as seasonal influenza vaccines have focused on generating neutralizing anti-HA antibodies against HA antigenic variants. Here, we systematically characterized the NA antigenic variants of seasonal A(H1N1) viruses from 1977 to 1991 and completed the antigenic profile of N1 NAs from 1977 to 2015. We identified that NA proteins of A/USSR/90/77, A/Singapore/06/86, and A/Texas/36/91 were antigenically distinct and mapped N386K as a key determinant of the NA antigenic change from A/USSR/90/77 to A/Singapore/06/86. With comprehensive panels of HA and NA antigenic variants of A(H1N1) and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, we determined hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) and neuraminidase inhibition (NI) antibodies from 130 subjects born between 1950 and 2015. Age-dependent imprinting was observed for both anti-HA and anti-NA antibodies, with the peak HI and NI titers predominantly detected from subjects at 4 to 12 years old during the year of initial virus isolation, except the age-independent anti-HA antibody response against A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. More participants possessed antibodies that reacted to multiple antigenically distinct NA proteins than those with antibodies that reacted to multiple antigenically distinct HA proteins. Our results support the need to include NA proteins in seasonal influenza vaccine preparations. |
Link[63] “Hot-spotting” to improve vaccine allocation by harnessing digital contact tracing technology: An application of percolation theory
Author: Mark D. Penney, Yigit Yargic, Lee Smolin, Edward W. Thommes, Madhur Anand, Chris T. Bauch Publication date: 22 September 2021 Publication info: PLoS ONE 16(9): e0256889 Cited by: David Price 0:05 AM 30 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 715294Contact tracing859FDEF6, 715419Edward Thommes Edward W. Thommes is an Adjunct Professor of Mathematics at the University of Guelph and at York University. He is a Global Modeling Lead in the Modeling, Epidemiology and Data Science (MEDS) team of Sanofi Vaccines, an Affiliate Researcher in the Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation (WICI), and a member of the Strategic Advisory Committee for the Mathematics for Public Health program at the Fields Institute.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0256889
| Excerpt / Summary [PLoS ONE, 22 September 2021]
Vaccinating individuals with more exposure to others can be disproportionately effective, in theory, but identifying these individuals is difficult and has long prevented implementation of such strategies. Here, we propose how the technology underlying digital contact tracing could be harnessed to boost vaccine coverage among these individuals. In order to assess the impact of this “hot-spotting” proposal we model the spread of disease using percolation theory, a collection of analytical techniques from statistical physics. Furthermore, we introduce a novel measure which we call the efficiency, defined as the percentage decrease in the reproduction number per percentage of the population vaccinated. We find that optimal implementations of the proposal can achieve herd immunity with as little as half as many vaccine doses as a non-targeted strategy, and is attractive even for relatively low rates of app usage. |
Link[64] A tale of two stories: COVID-19 and disability. A critical scoping review of the literature on the effects of the pandemic among athletes with disabilities and para-athletes
Author: Luca Puce, Khaled Trabelsi, Achraf Ammar, Georges Jabbour, Lucio Marinelli, Laura Mori, Jude Dzevela Kong, Christina Tsigalou, Filippo Cotellessa, Cristina Schenone, Mohammad Hossein Samanipour, Carlo Biz, Pietro Ruggieri, Carlo Trompetto, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi Publication date: 9 November 2022 Publication info: Front. Physiol., Volume 13, 9 November 2022 Cited by: David Price 0:09 AM 30 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 704036Immunology859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2022.967661
| Excerpt / Summary [Frontiers in Physiology, 9 November 2022]
The still ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically impacted athletes, and, in particular, para-athletes and athletes with disabilities. However, there is no scholarly appraisal on this topic. Therefore, a critical scoping review of the literature was conducted. We were able to retrieve sixteen relevant studies. The sample size ranged from 4 to 183. Most studies were observational, cross-sectional, and questionnaire-based surveys, two studies were interventional, and two were longitudinal. One study was a technical feasibility study. Almost all studies were conducted as single-country studies, with the exception of one multi-country investigation. Five major topics/themes could be identified: namely, 1) impact of COVID-19-induced confinement on training and lifestyles in athletes with disabilities/para-athletes; 2) impact of COVID-19-induced confinement on mental health in athletes with disabilities/para-athletes; 3) impact of COVID-19-induced confinement on performance outcomes in athletes with disabilities/para-athletes; 4) risk of contracting COVID-19 among athletes with disabilities/para-athletes; and, finally, 5) impact of COVID-19 infection on athletes with disabilities/para-athletes. The scholarly literature assessed was highly heterogeneous, with contrasting findings, and various methodological limitations. Based on our considerations, we recommend that standardized, reliable tools should be utilized and new, specific questionnaires should be created, tested for reliability, and validated. High-quality, multi-center, cross-countries, longitudinal surveys should be conducted to overcome current shortcomings. Involving all relevant actors and stakeholders, including various national and international Paralympic Committees, as a few studies have done, is fundamental: community-led, participatory research can help identify gaps in the current knowledge about sports-related practices among the population of athletes with disabilities during an unprecedented period of measures undertaken that have significantly affected everyday life. Moreover, this could advance the field, by capturing the needs of para-athletes and athletes with disabilities and enabling the design of a truly “disability-inclusive response” to COVID-19 and similar future conditions/situations. Furthermore, follow-up studies on COVID-19-infected para-athletes and athletes with disabilities should be conducted. Evidence of long-term effects of COVID-19 is available only for able-bodied athletes, for whom cardiorespiratory residual alterations and mental health issues a long time after COVID-19 have been described. |
Link[65] Impacts of observation frequency on proximity contact data and modeled transmission dynamics
Author: Weicheng Qian, Kevin Gordon Stanley, Nathaniel David Osgood Publication date: 27 February 2023 Publication info: PLOS Computational Biology, 19(2), e1010917–e1010917. Cited by: David Price 0:15 AM 30 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 679855Nathaniel OsgoodNathaniel D. Osgood is a Professor in the Department of Computer Science and Associate Faculty in the Department of Community Health & Epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan.10019D3ABAB, 715294Contact tracing859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010917
| Excerpt / Summary [PLOS Computational Biology, 27 February 2023]
Transmission of many communicable diseases depends on proximity contacts among humans. Modeling the dynamics of proximity contacts can help determine whether an outbreak is likely to trigger an epidemic. While the advent of commodity mobile devices has eased the collection of proximity contact data, battery capacity and associated costs impose tradeoffs between the observation frequency and scanning duration used for contact detection. The choice of observation frequency should depend on the characteristics of a particular pathogen and accompanying disease. We downsampled data from five contact network studies, each measuring participant-participant contact every 5 minutes for durations of four or more weeks. These studies included a total of 284 participants and exhibited different community structures. We found that for epidemiological models employing high-resolution proximity data, both the observation method and observation frequency configured to collect proximity data impact the simulation results. This impact is subject to the population’s characteristics as well as pathogen infectiousness. By comparing the performance of two observation methods, we found that in most cases, half-hourly Bluetooth discovery for one minute can collect proximity data that allows agent-based transmission models to produce a reasonable estimation of the attack rate, but more frequent Bluetooth discovery is preferred to model individual infection risks or for highly transmissible pathogens. Our findings inform the empirical basis for guidelines to inform data collection that is both efficient and effective. |
Link[66] Estimation of Epidemiological Parameters and Ascertainment Rate from Early Transmission of COVID-19 across Africa
Author: Qing Han, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Ali Asgary, James Orbinski, Jianhong Wu, Jude Dzevela Kong Publication date: 6 July 2022 Publication info: SSRN, 6 July 2023 Cited by: David Price 3:09 PM 30 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4135496
| Excerpt / Summary [SSRN, 6 July 2023]
Country reported case counts suggested a slow spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. However, due to inadequate public awareness, unestablished monitoring practices, limited testing, ineffective diagnosis, stigmas attached to being infected with SARS-CoV-2, self-medication, and the use of complementary/alternative medicine that are common among Africans for social, economic, and psychological reasons, there might exist extensive under-ascertainment and therefore an underestimation of the true number of cases, especially at the beginning of the novel epidemic. We developed a compartmentalized epidemiological model based on an augmented susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to track the early epidemics in 54 African countries. Data on the reported cumulative number of cases and daily confirmed cases were used to fit the model for the time period with no or little massive national interventions yet in each country. We estimated that the mean basic reproduction number is 2.02 (SD 0.7), with a range between 1.12 (Zambia) and 3.64 (Nigeria), whereas the mean basic reproduction number for observed cases was estimated to be 0.17 (SD 0.17), with a range between 0 (Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles, Tanzania, South Sudan, Mozambique, Liberia, Togo) and 0.68 (South Africa). It was estimated that the mean overall report rate is 5.37% (SD 5.71%), with the highest 30.41% in Libya and the lowest 0.02% in Sao Tome and Principe. An average of 5.46% (SD 6.4%) of all infected cases were severe cases and 66.74% (SD 17.28%) were asymptomatic ones, with Libya having the most (39.45%) fraction of severe cases and Togo the most (97.38%) fraction of asymptomatic cases. The estimated low reporting rates in Africa suggested a clear need for improved reporting and surveillance system in these countries. |
Link[67] Recursive Zero-COVID model and quantitation of control efforts of the Omicron epidemic in Jilin province
Author: Xinmiao Rong, Huidi Chu, Liu Yang, Shaosi Tan, Chao Yang, Pei Yuan, Yi Tan, Linhua Zhou, Yawen Liu, Qing Zhen, Shishen Wang, Meng Fan, Huaiping Zhu Publication date: 13 December 2022 Publication info: Infectious Disease Modelling, Volume 8, Issue 1, 2023, Pages 11-26, ISSN 2468-0427 Cited by: David Price 3:15 PM 30 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.11.007
| Excerpt / Summary [Infectious Disease Modelling, 13 December 2022]
Since the beginning of March 2022, the epidemic due to the Omicron variant has developed rapidly in Jilin Province. To figure out the key controlling factors and validate the model to show the success of the Zero-COVID policy in the province, we constructed a Recursive Zero-COVID Model quantifying the strength of the control measures, and defined the control reproduction number as an index for describing the intensity of interventions. Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis were employed to estimate and validate the impact of changes in the strength of different measures on the intensity of public health preventions qualitatively and quantitatively. The recursive Zero-COVID model predicted that the dates of elimination of cases at the community level of Changchun and Jilin Cities to be on April 8 and April 17, respectively, which are consistent with the real situation. Our results showed that the strict implementation of control measures and adherence of the public are crucial for controlling the epidemic. It is also essential to strengthen the control intensity even at the final stage to avoid the rebound of the epidemic. In addition, the control reproduction number we defined in the paper is a novel index to measure the intensity of the prevention and control measures of public health. |
Link[68] Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Author: Pratha Sah, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Charlotte F. Zimmer, Elaheh Abdollahi, Lyndon Juden-Kelly, Seyed M. Moghadas, Burton H. Singer, Alison P. Galvani Publication date: 10 August 2021 Publication info: PNAS, 118 (34) e2109229118 Cited by: David Price 3:21 PM 30 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679878Seyed MoghadasSeyed Moghadas is an infectious disease modeller whose research includes mathematical and computational modelling in epidemiology and immunology. In particular, he is interested in the theoretical and computational aspects of mathematical models describing the underlying dynamics of infectious diseases, with a particular emphasis on establishing strong links between micro (individual) and macro (population) levels.10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715294Contact tracing859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2109229118
| Excerpt / Summary [PNAS, 10 August 2021]
Quantification of asymptomatic infections is fundamental for effective public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Discrepancies regarding the extent of asymptomaticity have arisen from inconsistent terminology as well as conflation of index and secondary cases which biases toward lower asymptomaticity. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and World Health Organization Global Research Database on COVID-19 between January 1, 2020 and April 2, 2021 to identify studies that reported silent infections at the time of testing, whether presymptomatic or asymptomatic. Index cases were removed to minimize representational bias that would result in overestimation of symptomaticity. By analyzing over 350 studies, we estimate that the percentage of infections that never developed clinical symptoms, and thus were truly asymptomatic, was 35.1% (95% CI: 30.7 to 39.9%). At the time of testing, 42.8% (95% prediction interval: 5.2 to 91.1%) of cases exhibited no symptoms, a group comprising both asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections. Asymptomaticity was significantly lower among the elderly, at 19.7% (95% CI: 12.7 to 29.4%) compared with children at 46.7% (95% CI: 32.0 to 62.0%). We also found that cases with comorbidities had significantly lower asymptomaticity compared to cases with no underlying medical conditions. Without proactive policies to detect asymptomatic infections, such as rapid contact tracing, prolonged efforts for pandemic control may be needed even in the presence of vaccination. |
Link[69] Implications of suboptimal COVID-19 vaccination coverage in Florida and Texas
Author: Pratha Sah, Seyed M Moghadas, Thomas N Vilches, Affan Shoukat, Burton H Singer, Peter J Hotez, Eric C Schneider, Alison P Galvani Publication date: 7 October 2021 Publication info: The Lancet Infectious Diseases, VOLUME 21, ISSUE 11, P1493-1494, NOVEMBER 2021 Cited by: David Price 3:26 PM 30 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679878Seyed MoghadasSeyed Moghadas is an infectious disease modeller whose research includes mathematical and computational modelling in epidemiology and immunology. In particular, he is interested in the theoretical and computational aspects of mathematical models describing the underlying dynamics of infectious diseases, with a particular emphasis on establishing strong links between micro (individual) and macro (population) levels.10019D3ABAB, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00620-4
| Excerpt / Summary [The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 7 October 2021]
In July, 2021, another wave of COVID-19 began in the USA as the highly infectious delta (B.1.617.2) SARS-CoV-2 variant drove outbreaks predominantly affecting states with relatively low vaccination coverage. Some US states have shown the feasibility of rapidly achieving high vaccination coverage. Specifically, an average of 74·0% of adults had been fully vaccinated in Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, and Rhode Island by July 31. By contrast, two states facing substantial delta-driven surges, Florida and Texas, had fully vaccinated only 59·5% and 55·8% of their adult residents, respectively.1 Here, we estimate the deaths, hospital admissions, and infections that could have been averted if Florida and Texas had matched the average vaccination pace of the top-performing states and vaccinated 74·0% of their adult populations by the end of July. |
Link[70] Return on Investment of the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign in New York City
Author: Pratha Sah, Thomas N. Vilches, Seyed M. Moghadas, Abhishek Pandey, Suhas Gondi, Eric C. Schneider, Jesse Singer, Dave A. Chokshi, Alison P. Galvani Publication date: 21 November 2022 Publication info: JAMA Network Open, 21 November 2022, 2022;5(11):e2243127 Cited by: David Price 3:33 PM 30 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679878Seyed MoghadasSeyed Moghadas is an infectious disease modeller whose research includes mathematical and computational modelling in epidemiology and immunology. In particular, he is interested in the theoretical and computational aspects of mathematical models describing the underlying dynamics of infectious diseases, with a particular emphasis on establishing strong links between micro (individual) and macro (population) levels.10019D3ABAB, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.43127
| Excerpt / Summary [JAMA Network Open, 21 November 2022]
Importance: New York City, an early epicenter of the pandemic, invested heavily in its COVID-19 vaccination campaign to mitigate the burden of disease outbreaks. Understanding the return on investment (ROI) of this campaign would provide insights into vaccination programs to curb future COVID-19 outbreaks.
Objective: To estimate the ROI of the New York City COVID-19 vaccination campaign by estimating the tangible direct and indirect costs from a societal perspective.
Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical model of disease transmission was calibrated to confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 in New York City between December 14, 2020, and January 31, 2022. This simulation model was validated with observed patterns of reported hospitalizations and deaths during the same period.
Exposures: An agent-based counterfactual scenario without vaccination was simulated using the calibrated model.
Main Outcomes and Measures: Costs of health care and deaths were estimated in the actual pandemic trajectory with vaccination and in the counterfactual scenario without vaccination. The savings achieved by vaccination, which were associated with fewer outpatient visits, emergency department visits, emergency medical services, hospitalizations, and intensive care unit admissions, were also estimated. The value of a statistical life (VSL) lost due to COVID-19 death and the productivity loss from illness were accounted for in calculating the ROI.
Results: During the study period, the vaccination campaign averted an estimated $27.96 (95% credible interval [CrI], $26.19-$29.84) billion in health care expenditures and 315 724 (95% CrI, 292 143-340 420) potential years of life lost, averting VSL loss of $26.27 (95% CrI, $24.39-$28.21) billion. The estimated net savings attributable to vaccination were $51.77 (95% CrI, $48.50-$55.85) billion. Every $1 invested in vaccination yielded estimated savings of $10.19 (95% CrI, $9.39-$10.87) in direct and indirect costs of health outcomes that would have been incurred without vaccination.
Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this modeling study showed an association of the New York City COVID-19 vaccination campaign with reduction in severe outcomes and avoidance of substantial economic losses. This significant ROI supports continued investment in improving vaccine uptake during the ongoing pandemic. |
Link[71] Estimating the impact of vaccination on reducing COVID-19 burden in the United States: December 2020 to March 2022
Author: Pratha Sah, Thomas N. Vilches, Abhishek Pandey, Eric C. Schneider, Seyed M. Moghadas, Alison P Galvani Publication date: 1 September 2022 Publication info: J Glob Health 2022;12:03062. Cited by: David Price 3:42 PM 30 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679878Seyed MoghadasSeyed Moghadas is an infectious disease modeller whose research includes mathematical and computational modelling in epidemiology and immunology. In particular, he is interested in the theoretical and computational aspects of mathematical models describing the underlying dynamics of infectious diseases, with a particular emphasis on establishing strong links between micro (individual) and macro (population) levels.10019D3ABAB, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.12.03062
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Global Health, September 2022]
Since the start of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States (US), over 560 million doses of authorized vaccines were administered, and 69.7% of the eligible population were fully vaccinated as of March 31, 2022 [1]. Much attention has focused on the public health toll of the pandemic. The positive impact of the rapid development and deployment of highly efficacious vaccines, ie, the reduction in deaths, hospitalizations, and health care costs, remains unclear. We estimated the reduction in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and mortality, as well as averted health care costs achieved by the vaccination program from December 12, 2020 to March 31, 2022. |
Link[72] Emergency Calls in the City of Vaughan (Canada) During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Spatiotemporal Analysis
Author: Ali Asgary, Adriano O. Solis, Nawar Khan, Janithra Wimaladasa, Maryam S. Sabet Publication date: 23 March 2023 Publication info: Polytechnic University of Valencia Congress, CARMA 2022 - 4th International Conference on Advanced Research Methods and Analytics Cited by: David Price 12:16 PM 1 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 703960Spatio-temporal analysis859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.4995/carma2022.2022.15087
| Excerpt / Summary [CARMA 2022]
The COVID-19 pandemic has required governments to introduce various public health measures in order to contain and manage the pandemic’s unprecedented impacts in terms of illnesses and deaths. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution of emergency incidents in Vaughan, a medium-sized city in the Canadian province of Ontario, comparing occurrences prior to and during the pandemic. Emergency calls received and responded to by the Vaughan Fire and Rescue Service were examined using spatial density and emerging hotspot analysis based on 11 periods of various public health measures and restrictions set in place from 17 March 2020 to 15 July 2021, as compared with corresponding pre-pandemic periods in the preceding three years (2017-2019). The resulting analyses show significant spatiotemporal changes in emergency incident patterns, particularly during periods of more stringent public health measures such as ‘stay at home’ orders or lockdowns of nonessential business establishments. Results of the study could provide useful insights for managing emergency service resources and operations during public health emergencies. |
Link[73] Modeling the second outbreak of COVID-19 with isolation and contact tracing
Author: Haitao Song, Fang Liu, Feng Li, Xiaochun Cao, Hao Wang, Zhongwei Jia, Huaiping Zhu, Michael Y. Li, Wei Lin, Hong Yang, Jianghong Hu, Zhen Jin Publication date: 1 October 2022 Publication info: Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2022, Volume 27, Issue 10: 5757-5777. Cited by: David Price 12:25 PM 1 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 679791Hao WangProfessor in the Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences at the University of Alberta.10019D3ABAB, 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 685387Michael Y LiProfessor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences at the University of Alberta, and Director of the Information Research Lab (IRL).10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715294Contact tracing859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3934/dcdsb.2021294
| Excerpt / Summary [Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, October 2022]
The first case of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Since then, COVID-19 has quickly spread out to all provinces in China and over 150 countries or territories in the world. With the first level response to public health emergencies (FLRPHE) launched over the country, the outbreak of COVID-19 in China is achieving under control in China. We develop a mathematical model based on the epidemiology of COVID-19, incorporating the isolation of healthy people, confirmed cases and contact tracing measures. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers 2.5 in China (excluding Hubei province) and 2.9 in Hubei province with the initial time on January 30 which shows the severe infectivity of COVID-19, and verify that the current isolation method effectively contains the transmission of COVID-19. Under the isolation of healthy people, confirmed cases and contact tracing measures, we find a noteworthy phenomenon that is the second epidemic of COVID-19 and estimate the peak time and value and the cumulative number of cases. Simulations show that the contact tracing measures can efficiently contain the transmission of the second epidemic of COVID-19. With the isolation of all susceptible people or all infectious people or both, there is no second epidemic of COVID-19. Furthermore, resumption of work and study can increase the transmission risk of the second epidemic of COVID-19. |
Link[74] Managing SARS-CoV-2 Testing in Schools with an Artificial Intelligence Model and Application Developed by Simulation Data
Author: Svetozar Zarko Valtchev, Ali Asgary, Michael Chen, Felippe A. Cronemberger, Mahdi M. Najafabadi, Monica Gabriela Cojocaru, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 7 July 2021 Publication info: Electronics, 10(14), 1626–1626. Cited by: David Price 12:32 PM 1 December 2023 GMT
Citerank: (7) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 704019Artificial intelligence859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 708812Simulation859FDEF6, 715617Schools859FDEF6, 715762Monica CojocaruProfessor in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at the University of Guelph. 10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics10141626
| Excerpt / Summary [Electronics, 7 July 2021]
Research on SARS-CoV-2 and its social implications have become a major focus to interdisciplinary teams worldwide. As interest in more direct solutions, such as mass testing and vaccination grows, several studies appear to be dedicated to the operationalization of those solutions, leveraging both traditional and new methodologies, and, increasingly, the combination of both. This research examines the challenges anticipated for preventative testing of SARS-CoV-2 in schools and proposes an artificial intelligence (AI)-powered agent-based model crafted specifically for school scenarios. This research shows that in the absence of real data, simulation-based data can be used to develop an artificial intelligence model for the application of rapid assessment of school testing policies. |
Link[75] The stochasticity in adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions and booster doses and the mitigation of COVID-19
Author: Yi Tan, Pei Yuan, Iain Moyles, Jane Heffernan, James Watmough, Sanyi Tang, Huaiping Zhu Publication date: 1 March 2023 Publication info: Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - S, 2023, Volume 16, Issue 3&4: 602-626. Cited by: David Price 11:47 AM 2 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (6) 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 679799Iain MoylesAssistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University. 10019D3ABAB, 679805James WatmoughProfessor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of New Brunswick.10019D3ABAB, 679806Jane HeffernanJane Heffernan is a professor of infectious disease modelling in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at York University. She is a co-director of the Canadian Centre for Disease Modelling, and she leads national and international networks in mathematical immunology and the modelling of waning and boosting immunity.10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3934/dcdss.2023044
| Excerpt / Summary [Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - S, March 2023]
Facing the more contagious COVID-19 variant, Omicron, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were still in place and booster doses were proposed to mitigate the epidemic. However, the uncertainty and stochasticity in individuals' behaviours toward the NPIs and booster dose increase, and how this randomness affects the transmission remains poorly understood. We present a model framework to incorporate demographic stochasticity and two kinds of environmental stochasticity (notably variations in adherence to NPIs and booster dose acceptance) to analyze the effects of different forms of stochasticity on transmission. The model is calibrated using the data from December 31, 2021, to March 8, 2022, on daily reported cases and hospitalizations, cumulative cases, deaths and vaccinations for booster doses in Toronto, Canada. An approximate Bayesian computational (ABC) method is used for calibration. We observe that demographic stochasticity could dramatically worsen the outbreak with more incidence compared with the results of the corresponding deterministic model. We found that large variations in adherence to NPIs increase infections. The randomness in booster dose acceptance will not affect the number of reported cases significantly and it is acceptable in the mitigation of COVID-19. The stochasticity in adherence to NPIs needs more attention compared to booster dose hesitancy. |
Link[76] The minimal COVID-19 vaccination coverage and efficacy to compensate for a potential increase of transmission contacts, and increased transmission probability of the emerging strains
Author: Biao Tang, Xue Zhang, Qian Li, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Dasantila Golemi-Kotra, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 27 June 2022 Publication info: BMC Public Health, Volume 22, Article number: 1258 (2022) Cited by: David Price 12:11 PM 2 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13429-w
| Excerpt / Summary [BMC Public Health, 27 June 2022]
Background: Mass immunization is a potentially effective approach to finally control the local outbreak and global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it can also lead to undesirable outcomes if mass vaccination results in increased transmission of effective contacts and relaxation of other public health interventions due to the perceived immunity from the vaccine.
Methods: We designed a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics that takes into consideration the epidemiological status, public health intervention status (quarantined/isolated), immunity status of the population, and strain variations. Comparing the control reproduction numbers and the final epidemic sizes (attack rate) in the cases with and without vaccination, we quantified some key factors determining when vaccination in the population is beneficial for preventing and controlling future outbreaks.
Results: Our analyses predicted that there is a critical (minimal) vaccine efficacy rate (or a critical quarantine rate) below which the control reproduction number with vaccination is higher than that without vaccination, and the final attack rate in the population is also higher with the vaccination. We also predicted the worst case scenario occurs when a high vaccine coverage rate is achieved for a vaccine with a lower efficacy rate and when the vaccines increase the transmission efficient contacts.
Conclusions: The analyses show that an immunization program with a vaccine efficacy rate below the predicted critical values will not be as effective as simply investing in the contact tracing/quarantine/isolation implementation. We reached similar conclusions by considering the final epidemic size (or attack rates). This research then highlights the importance of monitoring the impact on transmissibility and vaccine efficacy of emerging strains. |
Link[77] Harnessing Artificial Intelligence to assess the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the second wave of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic across the world
Author: Sile Tao, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Jianhong Wu, Bruce Mellado, Jude Dzevela Kong Publication date: 18 January 2022 Publication info: Scientific Reports, Volume 12, Article number: 944 (2022) Cited by: David Price 12:16 PM 2 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 704019Artificial intelligence859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-04731-5
| Excerpt / Summary [Scientific Reports, 18 January 2022]
In the present paper, we aimed to determine the influence of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) enforced during the first wave of COVID-19 across countries on the spreading rate of COVID-19 during the second wave. For this purpose, we took into account national-level climatic, environmental, clinical, health, economic, pollution, social, and demographic factors. We estimated the growth of the first and second wave across countries by fitting a logistic model to daily-reported case numbers, up to the first and second epidemic peaks. We estimated the basic and effective (second wave) reproduction numbers across countries. Next, we used a random forest algorithm to study the association between the growth rate of the second wave and NPIs as well as pre-existing country-specific characteristics. Lastly, we compared the growth rate of the first and second waves of COVID-19. The top three factors associated with the growth of the second wave were body mass index, the number of days that the government sets restrictions on requiring facial coverings outside the home at all times, and restrictions on gatherings of 10 people or less. Artificial intelligence techniques can help scholars as well as decision and policy-makers estimate the effectiveness of public health policies, and implement “smart” interventions, which are as efficacious as stringent ones. |
Link[78] Participatory Modeling with Discrete-Event Simulation: A Hybrid Approach to Inform Policy Development to Reduce Emergency Department Wait Times
Author: Yuan Tian, Jenny Basran, James Stempien, Adrienne Danyliw, Graham Fast, Patrick Falastein, Nathaniel D. Osgood Publication date: 17 July 2023 Publication info: Systems 2023, 11(7), 362; Cited by: David Price 2:37 PM 2 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 679855Nathaniel OsgoodNathaniel D. Osgood is a Professor in the Department of Computer Science and Associate Faculty in the Department of Community Health & Epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan.10019D3ABAB, 685420Hospitals16289D5D4 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11070362
| Excerpt / Summary [Systems, 17 July 2023]
We detail a case study using a participatory modeling approach in the development and use of discrete-event simulations to identify intervention strategies aimed at reducing emergency department (ED) wait times in a Canadian health policy setting. A four-stage participatory modeling approach specifically adapted to the local policy environment was developed to engage stakeholders throughout the modeling processes. The participatory approach enabled a provincial team to engage a broad range of stakeholders to examine and identify the causes and solutions to lengthy ED wait times in the studied hospitals from a whole-system perspective. Each stage of the approach was demonstrated through its application in the case study. A novel and key feature of the participatory modeling approach was the development and use of a multi-criteria framework to identify and prioritize interventions to reduce ED wait times. We conclude with a discussion on lessons learned, which provide insights into future development and applications of participatory modeling methods to facilitate policy development and build multi-stakeholder consensus. |
Link[79] Comparison of pretrained transformer-based models for influenza and COVID-19 detection using social media text data in Saskatchewan, Canada
Author: Yuan Tian, Wenjing Zhang, Lujie Duan, Wade McDonald, Nathaniel Osgood Publication date: 28 June 2023 Publication info: Front. Digit. Health, 28 June 2023, Volume 5 - 2023 Cited by: David Price 4:37 PM 4 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (6) 679855Nathaniel OsgoodNathaniel D. Osgood is a Professor in the Department of Computer Science and Associate Faculty in the Department of Community Health & Epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan.10019D3ABAB, 701020CANMOD – PublicationsPublications by CANMOD Members144B5ACA0, 703953Machine learning859FDEF6, 703974Influenza859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715666Social networks859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fdgth.2023.1203874
| Excerpt / Summary [Frontiers in Digital Health, 28 June 2023]
Background: The use of social media data provides an opportunity to complement traditional influenza and COVID-19 surveillance methods for the detection and control of outbreaks and informing public health interventions.
Objective: The first aim of this study is to investigate the degree to which Twitter users disclose health experiences related to influenza and COVID-19 that could be indicative of recent plausible influenza cases or symptomatic COVID-19 infections. Second, we seek to use the Twitter datasets to train and evaluate the classification performance of Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) and variant language models in the context of influenza and COVID-19 infection detection.
Methods: We constructed two Twitter datasets using a keyword-based filtering approach on English-language tweets collected from December 2016 to December 2022 in Saskatchewan, Canada. The influenza-related dataset comprised tweets filtered with influenza-related keywords from December 13, 2016, to March 17, 2018, while the COVID-19 dataset comprised tweets filtered with COVID-19 symptom-related keywords from January 1, 2020, to June 22, 2021. The Twitter datasets were cleaned, and each tweet was annotated by at least two annotators as to whether it suggested recent plausible influenza cases or symptomatic COVID-19 cases. We then assessed the classification performance of pre-trained transformer-based language models, including BERT-base, BERT-large, RoBERTa-base, RoBERT-large, BERTweet-base, BERTweet-covid-base, BERTweet-large, and COVID-Twitter-BERT (CT-BERT) models, on each dataset. To address the notable class imbalance, we experimented with both oversampling and undersampling methods.
Results: The influenza dataset had 1129 out of 6444 (17.5%) tweets annotated as suggesting recent plausible influenza cases. The COVID-19 dataset had 924 out of 11939 (7.7%) tweets annotated as inferring recent plausible COVID-19 cases. When compared against other language models on the COVID-19 dataset, CT-BERT performed the best, supporting the highest scores for recall (94.8%), F1(94.4%), and accuracy (94.6%). For the influenza dataset, BERTweet models exhibited better performance. Our results also showed that applying data balancing techniques such as oversampling or undersampling method did not lead to improved model performance.
Conclusions: Utilizing domain-specific language models for monitoring users’ health experiences related to influenza and COVID-19 on social media shows improved classification performance and has the potential to supplement real-time disease surveillance. |
Link[80] Modelling COVID-19 transmission in a hemodialysis centre using simulation generated contacts matrices
Author: Mohammadali Tofighi, Ali Asgary, Asad A. Merchant, Mohammad Ali Shafiee, Mahdi M. Najafabadi, Nazanin Nadri, Mehdi Aarabi, Jane Heffernan, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 19 November 2021 Publication info: PLoS ONE 16(11): e0259970. Cited by: David Price 4:43 PM 4 December 2023 GMT
Citerank: (7) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 679806Jane HeffernanJane Heffernan is a professor of infectious disease modelling in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at York University. She is a co-director of the Canadian Centre for Disease Modelling, and she leads national and international networks in mathematical immunology and the modelling of waning and boosting immunity.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 685420Hospitals16289D5D4, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 708812Simulation859FDEF6, 715294Contact tracing859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259970
| Excerpt / Summary [PLoS ONE, 19 November 2021]
The COVID-19 pandemic has been particularly threatening to patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) on intermittent hemodialysis and their care providers. Hemodialysis patients who receive life-sustaining medical therapy in healthcare settings, face unique challenges as they need to be at a dialysis unit three or more times a week, where they are confined to specific settings and tended to by dialysis nurses and staff with physical interaction and in close proximity. Despite the importance and critical situation of the dialysis units, modelling studies of the SARS-CoV-2 spread in these settings are very limited. In this paper, we have used a combination of discrete event and agent-based simulation models, to study the operations of a typical large dialysis unit and generate contact matrices to examine outbreak scenarios. We present the details of the contact matrix generation process and demonstrate how the simulation calculates a micro-scale contact matrix comprising the number and duration of contacts at a micro-scale time step. We have used the contacts matrix in an agent-based model to predict disease transmission under different scenarios. The results show that micro-simulation can be used to estimate contact matrices, which can be used effectively for disease modelling in dialysis and similar settings. |
Link[81] Estimating social contacts in mass gatherings for disease outbreak prevention and management: case of Hajj pilgrimage
Author: Mohammadali Tofighi, Ali Asgary, Ghassem Tofighi, Mahdi M. Najafabadi, Julien Arino, Amine Amiche, Ashrafur Rahman, Zachary McCarthy, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Edward Thommes, Laurent Coudeville, Martin David Grunnill, Lydia Bourouiba, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 1 September 2022 Publication info: Tropical Diseases, Travel Medicine and Vaccines, Volume 8, Article number: 19 (2022) Cited by: David Price 4:49 PM 4 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (6) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679817Julien ArinoProfessor and Faculty of Science Research Chair in Fundamental Science with the Department of Mathematics at the University of Manitoba.10019D3ABAB, 70104406 Infection Control during Mass Gathering EventsMass gatherings (MG) have the potential to facilitate global spread of infectious pathogens. Individuals from disease-free areas may acquire the pathogen while at the mass gathering site, which in turn could lead to its translocation in the originally disease-free zones when individuals return home.12070BEA3, 701222OMNI – Publications144B5ACA0, 715419Edward Thommes Edward W. Thommes is an Adjunct Professor of Mathematics at the University of Guelph and at York University. He is a Global Modeling Lead in the Modeling, Epidemiology and Data Science (MEDS) team of Sanofi Vaccines, an Affiliate Researcher in the Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation (WICI), and a member of the Strategic Advisory Committee for the Mathematics for Public Health program at the Fields Institute.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40794-022-00177-3
| Excerpt / Summary [Tropical Diseases, Travel Medicine and Vaccines, 1 September 2022]
Background: Most mass gathering events have been suspended due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, with vaccination rollout, whether and how to organize some of these mass gathering events arises as part of the pandemic recovery discussions, and this calls for decision support tools. The Hajj, one of the world's largest religious gatherings, was substantively scaled down in 2020 and 2021 and it is still unclear how it will take place in 2022 and subsequent years. Simulating disease transmission dynamics during the Hajj season under different conditions can provide some insights for better decision-making. Most disease risk assessment models require data on the number and nature of possible close contacts between individuals.
Methods: We sought to use integrated agent-based modeling and discrete events simulation techniques to capture risky contacts among the pilgrims and assess different scenarios in one of the Hajj major sites, namely Masjid-Al-Haram.
Results: The simulation results showed that a plethora of risky contacts may occur during the rituals. Also, as the total number of pilgrims increases at each site, the number of risky contacts increases, and physical distancing measures may be challenging to maintain beyond a certain number of pilgrims in the site.
Conclusions: This study presented a simulation tool that can be relevant for the risk assessment of a variety of (respiratory) infectious diseases, in addition to COVID-19 in the Hajj season. This tool can be expanded to include other contributing elements of disease transmission to quantify the risk of the mass gathering events. |
Link[82] A patchy model for tick population dynamics with patch-specific developmental delays
Author: Marco Tosato, Xue Zhang, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 24 March 2022 Publication info: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 19(5), 5329–5360. Cited by: David Price 4:52 PM 4 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 703961Zoonosis859FDEF6, 703972Lyme disease859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2022250
| Excerpt / Summary [Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 24 March 2022]
Tick infestation and tick-borne disease spread in a region of multiple adjacent patches with different environmental conditions depend heavily on the host mobility and patch-specific suitability for tick growth. Here we introduce a two-patch model where environmental conditions differ in patches and yield different tick developmental delays, and where feeding adult ticks can be dispersed by the movement of larger mammal hosts. We obtain a coupled system of four delay differential equations with two delays, and we examine how the dynamical behaviours depend on patch-specific basic reproduction numbers and host mobility by using singular perturbation analyses and monotone dynamical systems theory. Our theoretical results and numerical simulations provide useful insights for tick population control strategies. |
Link[83] COVID-19 Hospitalizations, ICU Admissions and Deaths Associated with the New Variants of Concern
Author: Ashleigh R. Tuite, David N. Fisman, Ayodele Odutayo, et al., on behalf of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table - Pavlos Bobos, Vanessa Allen, Isaac I. Bogoch, Adalsteinn D. Brown, Gerald A. Evans, Anna Greenberg, Jessica Hopkins, Antonina Maltsev, Douglas G. Manuel, Allison McGeer, Andrew M. Morris, Samira Mubareka, Laveena Munshi, V. Kumar Murty, Samir N. Patel, Fahad Razak, Robert J. Reid, Beate Sander, Michael Schull, Brian Schwartz, Arthur S. Slutsky, Nathan M. Stall, Peter Jüni Publication date: 29 March 2021 Publication info: [Science Briefs of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, 2021;1(18) Cited by: David Price 6:17 PM 4 December 2023 GMT
Citerank: (11) 679746Steini BrownProfessor and Dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto.10019D3ABAB, 679755Ashleigh TuiteAshleigh Tuite is an Assistant Professor in the Epidemiology Division at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto.10019D3ABAB, 679757Beate SanderCanada Research Chair in Economics of Infectious Diseases and Director, Health Modeling & Health Economics and Population Health Economics Research at THETA (Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment Collaborative).10019D3ABAB, 679777David FismanI am a Professor in the Division of Epidemiology at Division of Epidemiology, Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto. I am a Full Member of the School of Graduate Studies. I also have cross-appointments at the Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation and the Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine. I serve as a Consultant in Infectious Diseases at the University Health Network.10019D3ABAB, 679802Isaac BogochClinician Investigator, Toronto General Hospital Research Institute (TGHRI)10019D3ABAB, 679893Kumar MurtyProfessor Kumar Murty is in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Toronto. His research fields are Analytic Number Theory, Algebraic Number Theory, Arithmetic Algebraic Geometry and Information Security. He is the founder of the GANITA lab, co-founder of Prata Technologies and PerfectCloud. His interest in mathematics ranges from the pure study of the subject to its applications in data and information security.10019D3ABAB, 685230Doug ManuelDr. Manuel is a Medical Doctor with a Masters in Epidemiology and Royal College specialization in Public Health and Preventive Medicine. He is a Senior Scientist in the Clinical Epidemiology Program at Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, and a Professor in the Departments of Family Medicine and Epidemiology and Community Medicine.10019D3ABAB, 685420Hospitals16289D5D4, 701020CANMOD – PublicationsPublications by CANMOD Members144B5ACA0, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715390Mortality859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.47326/ocsat.2021.02.18.1.0
| Excerpt / Summary [Science Briefs of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, 29 March 2021]
Background: As of March 28, 2021 new variants of concern (VOCs) account for 67% of all Ontario SARS-CoV-2 infections. The B.1.1.7 variant originally detected in Kent, United Kingdom accounts for more than 90% of all VOCs in Ontario, with emerging evidence that it is both more transmissible and virulent.
Questions: What are the risks of COVID-19 hospitalization, ICU admission and death caused by VOCs as compared with the early variants of SARS-CoV-2?
What is the early impact of new VOCs on Ontario’s healthcare system?
Findings: A retrospective cohort study of 26,314 people in Ontario testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 between February 7 and March 11, 2021, showed that 9,395 people (35.7%) infected with VOCs had a 62% relative increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations (odds ratio [OR] 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.41 to 1.87), a 114% relative increase in ICU admissions (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.52 to 3.02), and a 40% relative increase in COVID-19 deaths (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.94), after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities.
A meta-analysis including the Ontario cohort study and additional cohort studies in the United Kingdom and Denmark showed that people infected with VOCs had a 63% higher risk of hospitalization (RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.44 to 1.83), a doubling of the risk of ICU admission (RR 2.03, 95% CI 1.69 to 2.45), and a 56% higher risk of all-cause death (RR 1.56, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.87). Estimates observed in different studies and regions were completely consistent, and the B.1.1.7 variant was dominant in all three jurisdictions over the study periods.
The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 on March 28, 2021, is 21% higher than at the start of the province-wide lockdown during the second wave on December 26, 2020, while ICU occupancy is 28% higher.
Between December 14 to 20, 2020, there were 149 new admissions to ICU; people aged 59 years and younger accounted for 30% of admissions. Between March 15, 2021 and March 21, 2021, there were 157 new admissions to ICU; people aged 59 years and younger accounted for 46% of admissions.
Interpretation: The new VOCs will result in a considerably higher burden to Ontario’s health care system during the third wave compared to the impact of early SARS-CoV-2 variants during Ontario’s second wave.
Since the start of the third wave on March 1, 2021, the number of new cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the COVID-19 hospital and ICU occupancies have surpassed prior thresholds at the start of the province-wide lockdown on December 26, 2020. |
Link[84] Modelling of spatial infection spread through heterogeneous population: from lattice to partial differential equation models
Author: Arvin Vaziry, T. Kolokolnikov, P. G. Kevrekidis Publication date: 5 October 2022 Publication info: Royal Society Open Science, 9(10). Cited by: David Price 6:25 PM 4 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679886Theodore KolokolnikovKillam Professor of Mathematics and Statistics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Dalhousie University.10019D3ABAB, 7015472022/01/04 Theodore KolokolnikovModelling of disease spread through heterogeneous population63E883B6, 703960Spatio-temporal analysis859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.220064
| Excerpt / Summary [Royal Society Open Science, 5 October 2022]
We present a simple model for the spread of an infection that incorporates spatial variability in population density. Starting from first-principle considerations, we explore how a novel partial differential equation with state-dependent diffusion can be obtained. This model exhibits higher infection rates in the areas of higher population density—a feature that we argue to be consistent with epidemiological observations. The model also exhibits an infection wave, the speed of which varies with population density. In addition, we demonstrate the possibility that an infection can ‘jump’ (i.e. tunnel) across areas of low population density towards areas of high population density. We briefly touch upon the data reported for coronavirus spread in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia as a case example with a number of qualitatively similar features as our model. Lastly, we propose a number of generalizations of the model towards future studies. |
Link[85] Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study
Author: Thomas N. Vilches, Elaheh Abdollahi, Lauren E. Cipriano, Margaret Haworth-Brockman, Yoav Keynan, Holden Sheffield, Joanne M. Langley, Seyed M. Moghadas Publication date: 25 May 2022 Publication info: BMC Public Health, Volume 22, Article number: 1042 (2022) Cited by: David Price 6:34 PM 4 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679878Seyed MoghadasSeyed Moghadas is an infectious disease modeller whose research includes mathematical and computational modelling in epidemiology and immunology. In particular, he is interested in the theoretical and computational aspects of mathematical models describing the underlying dynamics of infectious diseases, with a particular emphasis on establishing strong links between micro (individual) and macro (population) levels.10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13432-1
| Excerpt / Summary [BMC Public Health, 25 May 2022]
Background: Nunavut, the northernmost Arctic territory of Canada, experienced three community outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from early November 2020 to mid-June 2021. We sought to investigate how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination affected the course of these outbreaks.
Methods: We used an agent-based model of disease transmission to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut. The model encapsulated demographics and household structure of the population, the effect of NPIs, and daily number of vaccine doses administered. We fitted the model to inferred, back-calculated infections from incidence data reported from October 2020 to June 2021. We then compared the fit of the scenario based on case count data with several counterfactual scenarios without the effect of NPIs, without vaccination, and with a hypothetical accelerated vaccination program whereby 98% of the vaccine supply was administered to eligible individuals.
Results: We found that, without a territory-wide lockdown during the first COVID-19 outbreak in November 2020, the peak of infections would have been 4.7 times higher with a total of 5,404 (95% CrI: 5,015—5,798) infections before the start of vaccination on January 6, 2021. Without effective NPIs, we estimated a total of 4,290 (95% CrI: 3,880—4,708) infections during the second outbreak under the pace of vaccination administered in Nunavut. In a hypothetical accelerated vaccine rollout, the total infections during the second Nunavut outbreak would have been 58% lower, to 1,812 (95% CrI: 1,593—2,039) infections. Vaccination was estimated to have the largest impact during the outbreak in April 2021, averting 15,196 (95% CrI: 14,798—15,591) infections if the disease had spread through Nunavut communities. Accelerated vaccination would have further reduced the total infections to 243 (95% CrI: 222—265) even in the absence of NPIs.
Conclusions: NPIs have been essential in mitigating pandemic outbreaks in this large, geographically distanced and remote territory. While vaccination has the greatest impact to prevent infection and severe outcomes, public health implementation of NPIs play an essential role in the short term before attaining high levels of immunity in the population. |
Link[86] Estimating COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Following the US Vaccination Campaigns During the Pandemic
Author: Thomas N. Vilches, Seyed M. Moghadas, Pratha Sah, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Affan Shoukat, Abhishek Pandey, Alison P. Galvani Publication date: 11 January 2022 Publication info: JAMA Network Open. 2022;5(1):e2142725. Cited by: David Price 7:25 PM 5 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679878Seyed MoghadasSeyed Moghadas is an infectious disease modeller whose research includes mathematical and computational modelling in epidemiology and immunology. In particular, he is interested in the theoretical and computational aspects of mathematical models describing the underlying dynamics of infectious diseases, with a particular emphasis on establishing strong links between micro (individual) and macro (population) levels.10019D3ABAB, 685420Hospitals16289D5D4, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.42725
| Excerpt / Summary [JAMA Network Open, 11 January 2022]
Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 745 000 deaths in the US. However, the toll might have been higher without the rapid development and delivery of effective vaccines. As of October 28, 2021, 69% of 258 million US adults had been fully vaccinated.
Quantifying the population impact of COVID-19 vaccination can inform future vaccination strategies. Randomized clinical trials have established individual-level efficacy of authorized vaccines against the original strain, which exceeds 90% in preventing symptomatic and severe disease.1-3 However, the population-level effectiveness of the vaccination campaign in the US, in terms of association with reduced infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, is not as well documented, and we evaluated this using a simulation model.
Methods: This decision analytic model adheres to Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) reporting guideline. The institutional review of this study was waived by York University for the use of publicly available, deidentified data of the COVID-19 infections, deaths, and vaccination. Informed consent was not required to access the data.
We expanded our previous agent-based model4 to include transmission dynamics of the Alpha (B.1.1.7), Gamma (P.1), and Delta (B.1.617.2) variants in addition to the original strain (eMethods in the Supplement). The model was parameterized with the US demographics and age-specific risks of severe COVID-19 outcomes (eTable 1 and eTable 2 in the Supplement).5 A 2-dose vaccination strategy was implemented based on the daily vaccines administered in different age groups.6 Vaccine efficacies against infection, symptomatic disease and severe disease after each dose and for each variant were derived from published estimates (eTable 3 in the Supplement). The model was calibrated and fitted to reported national level incidence from October 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021 (eMethods in the Supplement).
We simulated pandemic trajectory under 2 counterfactuals: a no vaccination scenario and a program that achieved only half the daily vaccination rate of actual rollout. For each scenario, cumulative infections, hospitalizations, and deaths were compared with the simulated trends under the US vaccination program.
Credible intervals (CrIs) were generated from simulation outputs using the bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap method (with 500 replications) in June 2021. The model was implemented in Julia Language Programming, version 1.6 (Julia), and outputs were analyzed in MATLAB, version 2017a (MathWorks). No significance tests were performed for this simulation study.
Results: Compared with the no vaccination scenario, the actual vaccination campaign saved an estimated 240 797 (95% CrI, 200 665-281 230) lives and prevented an estimated 1 133 617 (95% CrI, 967 487-1 301 881) hospitalizations from December 12, 2020, to June 30, 2021. The number of cases averted during the same period was projected to exceed 14 million. Vaccination prevented a wave of COVID-19 cases driven by the Alpha variant that would have occurred in April 2021 without vaccination (Figure 1), with a projected peak of 4409 (95% CrI, 2865-6312) deaths and 17 979 (95% CrI, 13 191-23 219) hospitalizations. Under the second counterfactual with daily vaccination rates at half the reported pace, we projected that the US would have still endured an additional 77 283 (95% CrI, 48 499-104 519) deaths and 336 000 (95% CrI, 225 330- 440 109) hospitalizations (Figure 2).
Discussion: Our analytical model suggested that the US COVID-19 vaccination program was associated with a reduction in the total hospitalizations and deaths by nearly half during the first 6 months of 2021. It was also associated with decreased impact of the more transmissible and lethal Alpha variant that was circulating during the same period. As new variants of SARS-CoV-2 continue to emerge, a renewed commitment to vaccine access, particularly among underserved groups and in counties with low vaccination coverage, will be crucial to preventing avoidable COVID-19 cases and bringing the pandemic to a close.
Limitations of our model included the use of reported cases for fitting, which may not reflect the true incidence. This fit does not completely match the temporal trends of reported hospitalizations and deaths. The model was nationally homogeneous; however, parameters may have varied across geographic regions. Furthermore, we did not consider waning immunity after vaccination or recovery within the study time frame. |
Link[87] Economic evaluation of COVID-19 rapid antigen screening programs in the workplace
Author: Thomas N. Vilches, Ellen Rafferty, Chad R. Wells, Alison P. Galvani, Seyed M. Moghadas Publication date: 23 November 2022 Publication info: BMC Medicine, Volume 20, Article number: 452 (2022) Cited by: David Price 7:34 PM 5 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (6) 679878Seyed MoghadasSeyed Moghadas is an infectious disease modeller whose research includes mathematical and computational modelling in epidemiology and immunology. In particular, he is interested in the theoretical and computational aspects of mathematical models describing the underlying dynamics of infectious diseases, with a particular emphasis on establishing strong links between micro (individual) and macro (population) levels.10019D3ABAB, 703957Economics859FDEF6, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715831Diagnostic testing859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-022-02641-5
| Excerpt / Summary [BMC Medicine, 23 November 2022]
Background: Diagnostic testing has been pivotal in detecting SARS-CoV-2 infections and reducing transmission through the isolation of positive cases. We quantified the value of implementing frequent, rapid antigen (RA) testing in the workplace to identify screening programs that are cost-effective.
Methods: To project the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths under alternative screening programs, we adapted an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission and parameterized it with the demographics of Ontario, Canada, incorporating vaccination and waning of immunity. Taking into account healthcare costs and productivity losses associated with each program, we calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with quality-adjusted life year (QALY) as the measure of effect. Considering RT-PCR testing of only severe cases as the baseline scenario, we estimated the incremental net monetary benefits (iNMB) of the screening programs with varying durations and initiation times, as well as different booster coverages of working adults.
Results: Assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of CDN$30,000 per QALY loss averted, twice weekly workplace screening was cost-effective only if the program started early during a surge. In most scenarios, the iNMB of RA screening without a confirmatory RT-PCR or RA test was comparable or higher than the iNMB for programs with a confirmatory test for RA-positive cases. When the program started early with a duration of at least 16 weeks and no confirmatory testing, the iNMB exceeded CDN$1.1 million per 100,000 population. Increasing booster coverage of working adults improved the iNMB of RA screening.
Conclusions: Our findings indicate that frequent RA testing starting very early in a surge, without a confirmatory test, is a preferred screening program for the detection of asymptomatic infections in workplaces. |
Link[88] Importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the COVID-19 vaccination era: a case study of the Seychelles
Author: Thomas N Vilches, Pratha Sah, Elaheh Abdollahi, Seyed M Moghadas, Alison P Galvani Publication date: 18 September 2021 Publication info: Journal of Global Health 11: 03104. Cited by: David Price 7:42 PM 5 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 679878Seyed MoghadasSeyed Moghadas is an infectious disease modeller whose research includes mathematical and computational modelling in epidemiology and immunology. In particular, he is interested in the theoretical and computational aspects of mathematical models describing the underlying dynamics of infectious diseases, with a particular emphasis on establishing strong links between micro (individual) and macro (population) levels.10019D3ABAB, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.11.03104
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Global Health, 18 September 2021]
The Republic of Seychelles is an archipelago of 115 islands in the Indian Ocean with a population of approximately 98 000. As of June 28, 2021, the Seychelles was one of only a dozen countries that had succeeded in fully vaccinating more than half of their population against COVID-19. The Seychelles began its vaccination campaign on January 13, 2021, with two-dose Sinopharm and AstraZeneca vaccines. Both vaccines reportedly have at least 78% efficacy against symptomatic disease 14 or more days after the second dose. With various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in place and mounting vaccination coverage, the Seychelles suppressed its incidence to an average of 42 daily cases from January 1 to April 15, 2021. By May 5, over 61% of the population was fully vaccinated. Despite the high vaccination coverage, the country experienced a surge of COVID-19 infections soon after most NPIs were lifted in mid-April, reporting the world’s highest number of daily cases per capita and raising concerns about the efficacy of the vaccines. To understand the determinants of the recent surge, and the impact of the interplay between vaccination and NPIs, we used a previously established data-driven dynamic model and calibrated it to reported cases and vaccination rollout in the Seychelles… |
Link[89] Studying the mixed transmission in a community with age heterogeneity: COVID-19 as a case study
Author: Xiaoying Wang, Qing Han, Jude Dzevela Kong Publication date: 28 May 2022 Publication info: Infectious Disease Modelling, Volume 7, Issue 2, 2022, Pages 250-260, ISSN 2468-0427 Cited by: David Price 8:03 PM 5 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.006
| Excerpt / Summary [Infectious Disease Modelling, 28 May 2022]
COVID-19 has been prevalent worldwide for about 2 years now and has brought unprecedented challenges to our society. Before vaccines were available, the main disease intervention strategies were non-pharmaceutical. Starting December 2020, in Ontario, Canada, vaccines were approved for administering to vulnerable individuals and gradually expanded to all individuals above the age of 12. As the vaccine coverage reached a satisfactory level among the eligible population, normal social activities resumed and schools reopened starting September 2021. However, when schools reopen for in-person learning, children under the age of 12 are unvaccinated and are at higher risks of contracting the virus. We propose an age-stratified model based on the age and vaccine eligibility of the individuals. We fit our model to the data in Ontario, Canada and obtain a good fitting result. The results show that a relaxed between-group contact rate may trigger future epidemic waves more easily than an increased within-group contact rate. An increasing mixed contact rate of the older group quickly amplifies the daily incidence numbers for both groups whereas an increasing mixed contact rate of the younger group mainly leads to future waves in the younger group alone. The results indicate the importance of accelerating vaccine rollout for younger individuals in mitigating disease spread. |
Link[90] Quarantine and serial testing for variants of SARS-CoV-2 with benefits of vaccination and boosting on consequent control of COVID-19
Author: Chad R Wells, Abhishek Pandey, Senay Gokcebel, Gary Krieger, A Michael Donoghue, Burton H Singer, Seyed M Moghadas, Alison P Galvani, Jeffrey P Townsend Publication date: 27 July 2022 Publication info: PNAS Nexus, Volume 1, Issue 3, July 2022, pgac100, 27 July 2022 Cited by: David Price 8:07 PM 5 December 2023 GMT
Citerank: (7) 679878Seyed MoghadasSeyed Moghadas is an infectious disease modeller whose research includes mathematical and computational modelling in epidemiology and immunology. In particular, he is interested in the theoretical and computational aspects of mathematical models describing the underlying dynamics of infectious diseases, with a particular emphasis on establishing strong links between micro (individual) and macro (population) levels.10019D3ABAB, 703963Mobility859FDEF6, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6, 715831Diagnostic testing859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac100
| Excerpt / Summary [PNAS Nexus, 27 July 2022]
Quarantine and serial testing strategies for a disease depend principally on its incubation period and infectiousness profile. In the context of COVID-19, these primary public health tools must be modulated with successive SARS CoV-2 variants of concern that dominate transmission. Our analysis shows that (1) vaccination status of an individual makes little difference to the determination of the appropriate quarantine duration of an infected case, whereas vaccination coverage of the population can have a substantial effect on this duration, (2) successive variants can challenge disease control efforts by their earlier and increased transmission in the disease time course relative to prior variants, and (3) sufficient vaccine boosting of a population substantially aids the suppression of local transmission through frequent serial testing. For instance, with Omicron, increasing immunity through vaccination and boosters—for instance with 100% of the population is fully immunized and at least 24% having received a third dose—can reduce quarantine durations by up to 2 d, as well as substantially aid in the repression of outbreaks through serial testing. Our analysis highlights the paramount importance of maintaining high population immunity, preferably by booster uptake, and the role of quarantine and testing to control the spread of SARS CoV-2. |
Link[91] Comparative analyses of eighteen rapid antigen tests and RT-PCR for COVID-19 quarantine and surveillance-based isolation
Author: Chad R. Wells, Abhishek Pandey, Seyed M. Moghadas, Burton H. Singer, Gary Krieger, Richard J. L. Heron, David E. Turner, Justin P. Abshire, Kimberly M. Phillips, A. Michael Donoghue, Alison P. Galvani, Jeffrey P. Townsend Publication date: 9 July 2022 Publication info: Communications Medicine, Volume 2, Article number: 84 (2022) Cited by: David Price 0:58 AM 6 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679878Seyed MoghadasSeyed Moghadas is an infectious disease modeller whose research includes mathematical and computational modelling in epidemiology and immunology. In particular, he is interested in the theoretical and computational aspects of mathematical models describing the underlying dynamics of infectious diseases, with a particular emphasis on establishing strong links between micro (individual) and macro (population) levels.10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715831Diagnostic testing859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00147-y
| Excerpt / Summary [Communications Medicine, 9 July 2022]
Background: Rapid antigen (RA) tests are being increasingly employed to detect SARS-CoV-2 infections in quarantine and surveillance. Prior research has focused on RT-PCR testing, a single RA test, or generic diagnostic characteristics of RA tests in assessing testing strategies.
Methods: We have conducted a comparative analysis of the post-quarantine transmission, the effective reproduction number during serial testing, and the false-positive rates for 18 RA tests with emergency use authorization from The United States Food and Drug Administration and an RT-PCR test. To quantify the extent of transmission, we developed an analytical mathematical framework informed by COVID-19 infectiousness, test specificity, and temporal diagnostic sensitivity data.
Results: We demonstrate that the relative effectiveness of RA tests and RT-PCR testing in reducing post-quarantine transmission depends on the quarantine duration and the turnaround time of testing results. For quarantines of two days or shorter, conducting a RA test on exit from quarantine reduces onward transmission more than a single RT-PCR test (with a 24-h delay) conducted upon exit. Applied to a complementary approach of performing serial testing at a specified frequency paired with isolation of positives, we have shown that RA tests outperform RT-PCR with a 24-h delay. The results from our modeling framework are consistent with quarantine and serial testing data collected from a remote industry setting.
Conclusions: These RA test-specific results are an important component of the tool set for policy decision-making, and demonstrate that judicious selection of an appropriate RA test can supply a viable alternative to RT-PCR in efforts to control the spread of disease. |
Link[92] Climate tracking by freshwater fishes suggests that fish diversity in temperate lakes may be increasingly threatened by climate warming
Author: Thomas Wu, Mohammad Arshad Imrit, Zahra Movahedinia, Jude Kong, R. Iestyn Woolway, Sapna Sharma Publication date: 19 December 2022 Publication info: Diversity and Distributions, Volume 29, Issue 2 p. 300-315 Cited by: David Price 1:21 AM 6 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 703962Ecology859FDEF6, 703967Climate change859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13664
| Excerpt / Summary [Diversity and Distributions, 19 December 2022]
Aim: Many freshwater fishes are migrating poleward to more thermally suitable habitats in response to warming climates. In this study, we aimed to identify which freshwater fishes are most sensitive to climatic changes and asked: (i) how fast are lakes warming? (ii) how fast are fishes moving? and (iii) are freshwater fishes tracking climate?
Location: Ontario, Canada.
Methods: We assembled a database containing time series data on climate and species occurrence data from 10,732 lakes between 1986 and 2017. We calculated the rate of lake warming and climate velocity for these lakes. Climate velocities were compared with biotic velocities, specifically the rate at which the northernmost extent of each species shifted north.
Results: Lakes in Ontario warmed by 0.2°C decade−1 on average, at a climate velocity of 9.4 km decade−1 between 1986 and 2017. In response, some freshwater fishes have shifted their northern range boundaries with considerable interspecific variation ranging from species moving southwards at a rate of −58.9 km decade−1 to species ranges moving northwards at a rate of 83.6 km decade−1 over the same time period. More freshwater fish species are moving into northern lakes in Ontario than those being lost. Generally, predators are moving their range edges northwards, whereas prey fishes are being lost from northern lakes.
Main Conclusions: The concurrent loss of cooler refugia, combined with antagonistic competitive and predatory interactions with the range expanding species, has resulted in many commercially important predators moving their range edges northwards, whereas prey species have contracted their northern range edge boundaries. Trophic partitioning of range shifts highlights a previously undocumented observation of the loss of freshwater fishes from lower trophic levels in response to climate-driven migrations. |
Link[93] Exploring the dynamics of the 2022 mpox outbreak in Canada
Author: Rachael M. Milwid, Michael Li, Aamir Fazil, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, Carla M. Doyle, Yiqing Xia, Joseph Cox, Daniel Grace, Milada Dvorakova, Steven C. Walker, Sharmistha Mishra, Nicholas H. Ogden Publication date: 6 December 2023 Publication info: Journal of Medical Virology, Volume 95, Issue 12 e29256 Cited by: David Price 8:33 PM 6 December 2023 GMT
Citerank: (9) 679844Mathieu Maheu-GirouxCanada Research Chair (Tier 2) in Population Health Modeling and Associate Professor, McGill University.10019D3ABAB, 679880Sharmistha MishraSharmistha Mishra is an infectious disease physician and mathematical modeler and holds a Tier 2 Canadian Research Chair in Mathematical Modeling and Program Science.10019D3ABAB, 685203McMasterPandemicCompartmental epidemic models for forecasting and analysis of infectious disease pandemics: contributions from Ben Bolker, Jonathan Dushoff, David Earn, Weiguang Guan, Morgan Kain, Michael Li, Irena Papst, Steve Walker (in alphabetical order).122C78CB7, 685445Michael WZ LiMichael Li is Senior Scientist in the Public Health Risk Science Division (PHRS) of the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) and a Research Associate at the South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA).10019D3ABAB, 701020CANMOD – PublicationsPublications by CANMOD Members144B5ACA0, 715290Steve WalkerSteve is the CANMOD Director of Data Science and a postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at McMaster University.10019D3ABAB, 715291macpan2McMasterPandemic was developed to provide forecasts and insights to Canadian public health agencies throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this macpan2 project is to re-imagine McMasterPandemic, building it from the ground up with architectural and technological decisions that address the many lessons that we learned from COVID-19 about software.122C78CB7, 715329Nick OgdenNicholas Ogden is a senior research scientist and Director of the Public Health Risk Sciences Division within the National Microbiology Laboratory at the Public Health Agency of Canada.10019D3ABAB, 715667mpox859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.29256
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Medical Virology, 6 December 2023]
The 2022 mpox outbreak predominantly impacted gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM). Two models were developed to support situational awareness and management decisions in Canada. A compartmental model characterized epidemic drivers at national/provincial levels, while an agent-based model (ABM) assessed municipal-level impacts of vaccination. The models were parameterized and calibrated using empirical case and vaccination data between 2022 and 2023. The compartmental model explored: (1) the epidemic trajectory through community transmission, (2) the potential for transmission among non-gbMSM, and (3) impacts of vaccination and the proportion of gbMSM contributing to disease transmission. The ABM incorporated sexual-contact data and modeled: (1) effects of vaccine uptake on disease dynamics, and (2) impacts of case importation on outbreak resurgence. The calibrated, compartmental model followed the trajectory of the epidemic, which peaked in July 2022, and died out in December 2022. Most cases occurred among gbMSM, and epidemic trajectories were not consistent with sustained transmission among non-gbMSM. The ABM suggested that unprioritized vaccination strategies could increase the outbreak size by 47%, and that consistent importation (≥5 cases per 10 000) is necessary for outbreak resurgence. These models can inform time-sensitive situational awareness and policy decisions for similar future outbreaks. |
Link[94] Resurgence of Omicron BA.2 in SARS-CoV-2 infection-naive Hong Kong
Author: Ruopeng Xie, Kimberly M. Edwards, Dillon C. Adam, Kathy S. M. Leung, Tim K. Tsang, Shreya Gurung, Weijia Xiong, Xiaoman Wei, Daisy Y. M. Ng, Gigi Y. Z. Liu, Pavithra Krishnan, Lydia D. J. Chang, Samuel M. S. Cheng, Haogao Gu, Gilman K. H. Siu, Joseph T. Wu, Gabriel M. Leung, Malik Peiris, Benjamin J. Cowling, Leo L. M. Poon, Vijaykrishna Dhanasekaran Publication date: 27 April 2023 Publication info: Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 2422 (2023) Cited by: David Price 8:37 PM 6 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (1) 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38201-5
| Excerpt / Summary [Nature Communications, 27 April 2023]
Hong Kong experienced a surge of Omicron BA.2 infections in early 2022, resulting in one of the highest per-capita death rates of COVID-19. The outbreak occurred in a dense population with low immunity towards natural SARS-CoV-2 infection, high vaccine hesitancy in vulnerable populations, comprehensive disease surveillance and the capacity for stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs). By analyzing genome sequences and epidemiological data, we reconstructed the epidemic trajectory of BA.2 wave and found that the initial BA.2 community transmission emerged from cross-infection within hotel quarantine. The rapid implementation of PHSMs suppressed early epidemic growth but the effective reproduction number (Re) increased again during the Spring festival in early February and remained around 1 until early April. Independent estimates of point prevalence and incidence using phylodynamics also showed extensive superspreading at this time, which likely contributed to the rapid expansion of the epidemic. Discordant inferences based on genomic and epidemiological data underscore the need for research to improve near real-time epidemic growth estimates by combining multiple disparate data sources to better inform outbreak response policy. |
Link[95] The importance of quarantine: modelling the COVID-19 testing process
Author: Wanxiao Xu, Hongying Shu, Lin Wang, Xiang-Sheng Wang, James Watmough Publication date: 25 April 2023 Publication info: Journal of Mathematical Biology, 86, Article number: 81 (2023) Cited by: David Price 8:47 PM 6 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679805James WatmoughProfessor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of New Brunswick.10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6, 715831Diagnostic testing859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-023-01916-6
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Mathematical Biology, 25 April 2023]
We incorporate the disease state and testing state into the formulation of a COVID-19 epidemic model. For this model, the basic reproduction number is identified and its dependence on model parameters related to the testing process and isolation efficacy is discussed. The relations between the basic reproduction number, the final epidemic and peak sizes, and the model parameters are further explored numerically. We find that fast test reporting does not always benefit the control of the COVID-19 epidemic if good quarantine while awaiting test results is implemented. Moreover, the final epidemic and peak sizes do not always increase along with the basic reproduction number. Under some circumstances, lowering the basic reproduction number increases the final epidemic and peak sizes. Our findings suggest that properly implementing isolation for individuals who are waiting for their testing results would lower the basic reproduction number as well as the final epidemic and peak sizes. |
Link[96] Basic reproduction number for the SIR epidemic in degree correlated networks
Author: Yi Wang, Junling Ma, Jinde Cao Publication date: 17 February 2022 Publication info: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Volume 433, 2022,
133183, ISSN 0167-2789, Cited by: David Price 8:53 PM 6 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (1) 679818Junling MaI am an associate professor in Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria. I received B.Sc. in Applied Mathematics in 1994, and M.Sc in Applied Mathematics in 1997, from Xi'an Jiaotong University, China. I received Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics from Princeton University in 2003.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2022.133183
| Excerpt / Summary [Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 17 February 2022]
The basic reproduction number R0 is an important indicator of the severity for an epidemic outbreak, but it may not be obtained easily for heterogeneous populations especially with biased mixing contacts. Usually, explicit formula for the basic reproduction number in degree correlated networks is difficult to get, thus it is very useful to understand the relationship with their uncorrelated counterparts. It seems that the assortative mixing increases the basic reproduction number of susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) epidemic, whereas disassortative mixing decreases it, or that assortative mixing enhances the percolation, whereas disassortative mixing weakens it. This result is obtained for degree correlated networks based on a small deviation from the uncorrelated networks, and may not be universal. In this paper, we show rigorously that the result is true for degree correlated networks with arbitrary bimodal degree distribution and for assortative mixing networks with arbitrary degree distribution. However, this may not be always true for general disassortative mixing networks. We also introduce a numerical algorithm to construct an arbitrary joint degree distribution and generate a counterexample of disassortative mixing network that the result fails. Finally, a sufficient condition is given to guarantee that the SIR model in disassortative mixing networks yields smaller R0. |
Link[97] School and community reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study
Author: Pei Yuan, Elena Aruffo, Evgenia Gatov, Yi Tan, Qi Li, Nick Ogden, Sarah Collier, Bouchra Nasri, Iain Moyles, Huaiping Zhu Publication date: 2 February 2022 Publication info: R. Soc. open sci.9211883211883 Cited by: David Price 8:54 PM 6 December 2023 GMT
Citerank: (9) 679759Bouchra NasriProfessor Nasri is a faculty member of Biostatistics in the Department of Social and Preventive Medicine at the University of Montreal. Prof. Nasri is an FRQS Junior 1 Scholar in Artificial Intelligence in Health and Digital Health. She holds an NSERC Discovery Grant in Statistics for time series dependence modelling for complex data.10019D3ABAB, 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 679799Iain MoylesAssistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University. 10019D3ABAB, 701222OMNI – Publications144B5ACA0, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 714608Charting a FutureCharting a Future for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling in Canada – April 2023 [1] 2794CAE1, 715329Nick OgdenNicholas Ogden is a senior research scientist and Director of the Public Health Risk Sciences Division within the National Microbiology Laboratory at the Public Health Agency of Canada.10019D3ABAB, 715617Schools859FDEF6, 715617Schools859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211883
| Excerpt / Summary Operating schools safely during the COVID-19 pandemic requires a balance between health risks and the need for in-person learning. Using demographic and epidemiological data between 31 July and 23 November 2020 from Toronto, Canada, we developed a compartmental transmission model with age, household and setting structure to study the impact of schools reopening in September 2020. The model simulates transmission in the home, community and schools, accounting for differences in infectiousness between adults and children, and accounting for work-from-home and virtual learning. While we found a slight increase in infections among adults (2.2%) and children (4.5%) within the first eight weeks of school reopening, transmission in schools was not the key driver of the virus resurgence in autumn 2020. Rather, it was community spread that determined the outbreak trajectory, primarily due to increases in contact rates among adults in the community after school reopening. Analyses of cross-infection among households, communities and schools revealed that home transmission is crucial for epidemic progression and safely operating schools, while the degree of in-person attendance has a larger impact than other control measures in schools. This study suggests that safe school reopening requires the strict maintenance of public health measures in the community. |
Link[98] Projections of the transmission of the Omicron variant for Toronto, Ontario, and Canada using surveillance data following recent changes in testing policies
Author: Pei Yuan, Elena Aruffo, Yi Tan, Liu Yang, Nicholas H. Ogden, Aamir Fazil, Huaiping Zhu Publication date: 12 April 2022 Publication info: Infectious Disease Modelling, Volume 7, Issue 2, June 2022, Pages 83-93, ISSN 2468-0427 Cited by: David Price 8:55 PM 6 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (6) 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 701222OMNI – Publications144B5ACA0, 704022Surveillance859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715329Nick OgdenNicholas Ogden is a senior research scientist and Director of the Public Health Risk Sciences Division within the National Microbiology Laboratory at the Public Health Agency of Canada.10019D3ABAB, 715831Diagnostic testing859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.03.004
| Excerpt / Summary At the end of 2021, with the rapid escalation of COVID19 cases due to the Omicron variant, testing centers in Canada were overwhelmed. To alleviate the pressure on the PCR testing capacity, many provinces implemented new strategies that promote self testing and adjust the eligibility for PCR tests, making the count of new cases underreported. We designed a novel compartmental model which captures the new testing guidelines, social behaviours, booster vaccines campaign and features of the newest variant Omicron. To better describe the testing eligibility, we considered the population divided into high risk and non-high-risk settings. The model is calibrated using data from January 1 to February 9, 2022, on cases and severe outcomes in Canada, the province of Ontario and City of Toronto. We conduct analyses on the impact of PCR testing capacity, self testing, different levels of reopening and vaccination coverage on cases and severe outcomes. Our results show that the total number of cases in Canada, Ontario and Toronto are 2.34 (95%CI: 1.22–3.38), 2.20 (95%CI: 1.15–3.72), and 1.97(95%CI: 1.13–3.41), times larger than reported cases, respectively. The current testing strategy is efficient if partial restrictions, such as limited capacity in public spaces, are implemented. Allowing more people to have access to PCR reduces the daily cases and severe outcomes; however, if PCR test capacity is insufficient, then it is important to promote self testing. Also, we found that reopening to a pre-pandemic level will lead to a resurgence of the infections, peaking in late March or April 2022. Vaccination and adherence to isolation protocols are important supports to the testing policies to mitigate any possible spread of the virus. |
Link[99] Modeling vaccination and control strategies for outbreaks of monkeypox at gatherings
Author: Pei Yuan, Yi Tan, Liu Yang, Nicholas H. Ogden, Jacques Bélair, Julien Arino, Jane Heffernan, James Watmough, Hélène Carabin, Huaiping Zhu Publication date: 25 November 2022 Publication info: Front. Public Health, 25 November 2022 Cited by: David Price 8:56 PM 6 December 2023 GMT
Citerank: (9) 679793Hélène CarabinCanada Research Chair and Full Professor, Epidemiology and One Health, Université de Montréal10019D3ABAB, 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 679803Jacques BélairProfessor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Université de Montréal10019D3ABAB, 679805James WatmoughProfessor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of New Brunswick.10019D3ABAB, 679806Jane HeffernanJane Heffernan is a professor of infectious disease modelling in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at York University. She is a co-director of the Canadian Centre for Disease Modelling, and she leads national and international networks in mathematical immunology and the modelling of waning and boosting immunity.10019D3ABAB, 679817Julien ArinoProfessor and Faculty of Science Research Chair in Fundamental Science with the Department of Mathematics at the University of Manitoba.10019D3ABAB, 701222OMNI – Publications144B5ACA0, 715329Nick OgdenNicholas Ogden is a senior research scientist and Director of the Public Health Risk Sciences Division within the National Microbiology Laboratory at the Public Health Agency of Canada.10019D3ABAB, 715667mpox859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.1026489
| Excerpt / Summary [Frontiers in Public Health, 25 November 2022]
Background: The monkeypox outbreak in non-endemic countries in recent months has led the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). It is thought that festivals, parties, and other gatherings may have contributed to the outbreak.
Methods: We considered a hypothetical metropolitan city and modeled the transmission of the monkeypox virus in humans in a high-risk group (HRG) and a low-risk group (LRG) using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and incorporated gathering events. Model simulations assessed how the vaccination strategies combined with other public health measures can contribute to mitigating or halting outbreaks from mass gathering events.
Results: The risk of a monkeypox outbreak was high when mass gathering events occurred in the absence of public health control measures. However, the outbreaks were controlled by isolating cases and vaccinating their close contacts. Furthermore, contact tracing, vaccinating, and isolating close contacts, if they can be implemented, were more effective for the containment of monkeypox transmission during summer gatherings than a broad vaccination campaign among HRG, when accounting for the low vaccination coverage in the overall population, and the time needed for the development of the immune responses. Reducing the number of attendees and effective contacts during the gathering could also prevent a burgeoning outbreak, as could restricting attendance through vaccination requirements.
Conclusion: Monkeypox outbreaks following mass gatherings can be made less likely with some restrictions on either the number and density of attendees in the gathering or vaccination requirements. The ring vaccination strategy inoculating close contacts of confirmed cases may not be enough to prevent potential outbreaks; however, mass gatherings can be rendered less risky if that strategy is combined with public health measures, including identifying and isolating cases and contact tracing. Compliance with the community and promotion of awareness are also indispensable to containing the outbreak. |
Link[100] Assessing transmission risks and control strategy for monkeypox as an emerging zoonosis in a metropolitan area
Author: Pei Yuan, Yi Tan, Liu Yang, Nicholas H. Ogden, Jacques Bélair, Jane Heffernan, Julien Arino, James Watmough, Hélène Carabin, Huaiping Zhu Publication date: 11 September 2022 Publication info: Journal of Medical Virology, Volume 95, Issue 1 e28137 Cited by: David Price 8:57 PM 6 December 2023 GMT
Citerank: (9) 679793Hélène CarabinCanada Research Chair and Full Professor, Epidemiology and One Health, Université de Montréal10019D3ABAB, 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 679803Jacques BélairProfessor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Université de Montréal10019D3ABAB, 679805James WatmoughProfessor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of New Brunswick.10019D3ABAB, 679806Jane HeffernanJane Heffernan is a professor of infectious disease modelling in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at York University. She is a co-director of the Canadian Centre for Disease Modelling, and she leads national and international networks in mathematical immunology and the modelling of waning and boosting immunity.10019D3ABAB, 679817Julien ArinoProfessor and Faculty of Science Research Chair in Fundamental Science with the Department of Mathematics at the University of Manitoba.10019D3ABAB, 701222OMNI – Publications144B5ACA0, 715329Nick OgdenNicholas Ogden is a senior research scientist and Director of the Public Health Risk Sciences Division within the National Microbiology Laboratory at the Public Health Agency of Canada.10019D3ABAB, 715667mpox859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.28137
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Medical Virology, 11 September 2022]
To model the spread of monkeypox (MPX) in a metropolitan area for assessing the risk of possible outbreaks, and identifying essential public health measures to contain the virus spread. The animal reservoir is the key element in the modeling of zoonotic disease. Using a One Health approach, we model the spread of the MPX virus in humans considering potential animal hosts such as rodents (e.g., rats, mice, squirrels, chipmunks, etc.) and emphasize their role and transmission of the virus in a high-risk group, including gay and bisexual men-who-have-sex-with-men (gbMSM). From model and sensitivity analysis, we identify key public health factors and present scenarios under different transmission assumptions. We find that the MPX virus may spill over from gbMSM high-risk groups to broader populations if the efficiency of transmission increases in the higher-risk group. However, the risk of outbreak can be greatly reduced if at least 65% of symptomatic cases can be isolated and their contacts traced and quarantined. In addition, infections in an animal reservoir will exacerbate MPX transmission risk in the human population. Regions or communities with a higher proportion of gbMSM individuals need greater public health attention. Tracing and quarantine (or “effective quarantine” by postexposure vaccination) of contacts with MPX cases in high-risk groups would have a significant effect on controlling the spreading. Also, monitoring for animal infections would be prudent. |
Link[101] Assessing the mechanism of citywide test-trace-isolate Zero-COVID policy and exit strategy of COVID-19 pandemic
Author: Pei Yuan, Yi Tan, Liu Yang, Elena Aruffo, Nicholas H. Ogden, Guojing Yang, Haixia Lu, Zhigui Lin, Weichuan Lin, Wenjun Ma, Meng Fan, Kaifa Wang, Jianhe Shen, Tianmu Chen, Huaiping Zhu Publication date: 4 October 2022 Publication info: Infectious Diseases of Poverty, Volume 11, Article number: 104 (2022) Cited by: David Price 8:57 PM 6 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 701222OMNI – Publications144B5ACA0, 715294Contact tracing859FDEF6, 715329Nick OgdenNicholas Ogden is a senior research scientist and Director of the Public Health Risk Sciences Division within the National Microbiology Laboratory at the Public Health Agency of Canada.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-022-01030-7
| Excerpt / Summary [Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 4 October 2022]
Background: Countries that aimed for eliminating the cases of COVID-19 with test-trace-isolate policy are found to have lower infections, deaths, and better economic performance, compared with those that opted for other mitigation strategies. However, the continuous evolution of new strains has raised the question of whether COVID-19 eradication is still possible given the limited public health response capacity and fatigue of the epidemic. We aim to investigate the mechanism of the Zero-COVID policy on outbreak containment, and to explore the possibility of eradication of Omicron transmission using the citywide test-trace-isolate (CTTI) strategy.
Methods: We develop a compartmental model incorporating the CTTI Zero-COVID policy to understand how it contributes to the SARS-CoV-2 elimination. We employ our model to mimic the Delta outbreak in Fujian Province, China, from September 10 to October 9, 2021, and the Omicron outbreak in Jilin Province, China for the period from March 1 to April 1, 2022. Projections and sensitivity analyses were conducted using dynamical system and Latin Hypercube Sampling/ Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC).
Results: Calibration results of the model estimate the Fujian Delta outbreak can end in 30 (95% confidence interval CI: 28–33) days, after 10 (95% CI: 9–11) rounds of citywide testing. The emerging Jilin Omicron outbreak may achieve zero COVID cases in 50 (95% CI: 41–57) days if supported with sufficient public health resources and population compliance, which shows the effectiveness of the CTTI Zero-COVID policy.
Conclusions: The CTTI policy shows the capacity for the eradication of the Delta outbreaks and also the Omicron outbreaks. Nonetheless, the implementation of radical CTTI is challenging, which requires routine monitoring for early detection, adequate testing capacity, efficient contact tracing, and high isolation compliance, which constrain its benefits in regions with limited resources. Moreover, these challenges become even more acute in the face of more contagious variants with a high proportion of asymptomatic cases. Hence, in regions where CTTI is not possible, personal protection, public health control measures, and vaccination are indispensable for mitigating and exiting the COVID-19 pandemic. |
Link[102] Mpox Panic, Infodemic, and Stigmatization of the Two-Spirit, Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer or Questioning, Intersex, Asexual Community: Geospatial Analysis, Topic Modeling, and Sentiment Analysis of a Large, Multilingual Social Media Database
Author: Zahra Movahedi Nia, Nicola Bragazzi, Ali Asgary, James Orbinski, Jianhong Wu, Jude Kong Publication date: 1 May 2023 Publication info: J Med Internet Res 2023;25:e45108 Cited by: David Price 9:04 PM 6 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 715666Social networks859FDEF6, 715667mpox859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.2196/45108
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Medical Internet Research, 1 May 2023]
Background: The global Mpox (formerly, Monkeypox) outbreak is disproportionately affecting the gay and bisexual men having sex with men community.
Objective: The aim of this study is to use social media to study country-level variations in topics and sentiments toward Mpox and Two-Spirit, Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer or Questioning, Intersex, Asexual (2SLGBTQIAP+)–related topics. Previous infectious outbreaks have shown that stigma intensifies an outbreak. This work helps health officials control fear and stop discrimination.
Methods: In total, 125,424 Twitter and Facebook posts related to Mpox and the 2SLGBTQIAP+ community were extracted from May 1 to December 25, 2022, using Twitter application programming interface academic accounts and Facebook-scraper tools. The tweets’ main topics were discovered using Latent Dirichlet Allocation in the sklearn library. The pysentimiento package was used to find the sentiments of English and Spanish posts, and the CamemBERT package was used to recognize the sentiments of French posts. The tweets’ and Facebook posts’ languages were understood using the Twitter application programming interface platform and pycld3 library, respectively. Using ArcGis Online, the hot spots of the geotagged tweets were identified. Mann-Whitney U, ANOVA, and Dunn tests were used to compare the sentiment polarity of different topics and countries.
Results: The number of Mpox posts and the number of posts with Mpox and 2SLGBTQIAP+ keywords were 85% correlated (P<.001). Interestingly, the number of posts with Mpox and 2SLGBTQIAP+ keywords had a higher correlation with the number of Mpox cases (correlation=0.36, P<.001) than the number of posts on Mpox (correlation=0.24, P<.001). Of the 10 topics, 8 were aimed at stigmatizing the 2SLGBTQIAP+ community, 3 of which had a significantly lower sentiment score than other topics (ANOVA P<.001). The Mann-Whitney U test shows that negative sentiments have a lower intensity than neutral and positive sentiments (P<.001) and neutral sentiments have a lower intensity than positive sentiments (P<.001). In addition, English sentiments have a higher negative and lower neutral and positive intensities than Spanish and French sentiments (P<.001), and Spanish sentiments have a higher negative and lower positive intensities than French sentiments (P<.001). The hot spots of the tweets with Mpox and 2SLGBTQIAP+ keywords were recognized as the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Spain, Portugal, India, Ireland, and Italy. Canada was identified as having more tweets with negative polarity and a lower sentiment score (P<.04).
Conclusions: The 2SLGBTQIAP+ community is being widely stigmatized for spreading the Mpox virus on social media. This turns the community into a highly vulnerable population, widens the disparities, increases discrimination, and accelerates the spread of the virus. By identifying the hot spots and key topics of the related tweets, this work helps decision makers and health officials inform more targeted policies. |
Link[103] Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID‐19: A systematic review
Author: Weiwei Zhang, Shiyong Liu, Nathaniel Osgood, Hongli Zhu, Ying Qian, Peng Jia Publication date: 19 August 2022 Publication info: Systems Research and Behavioral ScienceVolume 40, Issue 1 p. 207-234 Cited by: David Price 9:54 PM 6 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679855Nathaniel OsgoodNathaniel D. Osgood is a Professor in the Department of Computer Science and Associate Faculty in the Department of Community Health & Epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan.10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 708812Simulation859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/sres.2897
| Excerpt / Summary [Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 19 August 2022]
This study systematically reviews applications of three simulation approaches, that is, system dynamics model (SDM), agent-based model (ABM) and discrete event simulation (DES), and their hybrids in COVID-19 research and identifies theoretical and application innovations in public health. Among the 372 eligible papers, 72 focused on COVID-19 transmission dynamics, 204 evaluated both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, 29 focused on the prediction of the pandemic and 67 investigated the impacts of COVID-19. ABM was used in 275 papers, followed by 54 SDM papers, 32 DES papers and 11 hybrid model papers. Evaluation and design of intervention scenarios are the most widely addressed area accounting for 55% of the four main categories, that is, the transmission of COVID-19, prediction of the pandemic, evaluation and design of intervention scenarios and societal impact assessment. The complexities in impact evaluation and intervention design demand hybrid simulation models that can simultaneously capture micro and macro aspects of the socio-economic systems involved. |
Link[104] Patch model for border reopening and control to prevent new outbreaks of COVID-19
Author: Tingting Zheng, Huaiping Zhu, Zhidong Teng, Linfei Nie, Yantao Luo Publication date: 10 February 2023 Publication info: Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE, 20(4), 7171–7192 Cited by: David Price 10:02 PM 6 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 703963Mobility859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2023310
| Excerpt / Summary [Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 10 February 2023]
In this paper, we propose a two-patch model with border control to investigate the effect of border control measures and local non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) on the transmission of COVID-19. The basic reproduction number of the model is calculated, and the existence and stability of the boundary equilibria and the existence of the coexistence equilibrium of the model are obtained. Through numerical simulation, when there are no unquarantined virus carriers in the patch-2, it can be concluded that the reopening of the border with strict border control measures to allow people in patch-1 to move into patch-2 will not lead to disease outbreaks. Also, when there are unquarantined virus carriers in patch-2 (or lax border control causes people carrying the virus to flow into patch-2), the border control is more strict, and the slower the growth of number of new infectious in patch-2, but the strength of border control does not affect the final state of the disease, which is still dependent on local NPIs. Finally, when the border reopens during an outbreak of disease in patch-2, then a second outbreak will happen. |
Link[105] Modeling and Evaluation of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism for Curbing COVID-19 in Wuhan
Author: Linhua Zhou, Xinmiao Rong, Meng Fan, Liu Yang, Huidi Chu, Ling Xue, Guorong Hu, Siyu Liu, Zhijun Zeng, Ming Chen, Wei Sun, Jiamin Liu, Yawen Liu, Shishen Wang, Huaiping Zhu Publication date: 4 January 2022 Publication info: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 84(2) Cited by: David Price 10:11 PM 6 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 685420Hospitals16289D5D4, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-021-00983-4
| Excerpt / Summary [Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 4 January 2022]
The spread of COVID-19 in Wuhan was successfully curbed under the strategy of “Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism.” To understand how this measure stopped the epidemics in Wuhan, we establish a compartmental model with time-varying parameters over different stages. In the early stage of the epidemic, due to resource limitations, the number of daily reported cases may lower than the actual number. We employ a dynamic-based approach to calibrate the accumulated clinically diagnosed data with a sudden jump on February 12 and 13. The model simulation shows reasonably good match with the adjusted data which allows the prediction of the cumulative confirmed cases. Numerical results reveal that the “Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism” played a significant role on the containment of COVID-19. The spread of COVID-19 cannot be inhibited if any of the measures was not effectively implemented. Our analysis also illustrates that the Fangcang Shelter Hospitals are very helpful when the beds in the designated hospitals are insufficient. Comprised with Fangcang Shelter Hospitals, the designated hospitals can contain the transmission of COVID-19 more effectively. Our findings suggest that the combined multiple measures are essential to curb an ongoing epidemic if the prevention and control measures can be fully implemented. |
Link[106] Generalized invariance principles for discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems
Author: Shijie Zhou, Wei Lin, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 17 June 2022 Publication info: Automatica, Volume 143, 2022, 110436, ISSN 0005-1098, Cited by: David Price 10:50 PM 7 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (1) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.automatica.2022.110436
| Excerpt / Summary [Automatica, 17 June 2022]
This article, based on the typical discrete-time semi-martingale convergence theorem, establishes several generalized versions of invariance principle for describing the long-term dynamical behaviors of discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems. These principles are suitable for investigating the dynamics in autonomous or non-autonomous systems and their applicability is demonstrated via using several representative examples. Particularly for autonomous systems, the established principle renders it possible to estimate the time when an orbit, initiating outside a particular bounded set, finally enters it. Furthermore, we provide a generalized version of discrete-time semi-martingale convergence theorem, and offer a counterexample to urge attentions to some delicate conditions that must be taken into account in the use of some version of convergence theorem. |
Link[107] Generalized Invariance Principles for Stochastic Dynamical Systems and Their Applications
Author: Shijie Zhou, Wei Lin, Xuerong Mao, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 8 May 2023 Publication info: IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 1–15. Cited by: David Price 10:57 PM 7 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (1) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/tac.2023.3274215
| Excerpt / Summary [IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 8 May 2023]
Investigating long-term behaviors of stochastic dynamical systems often requires to establish criteria that are able to describe delicate dynamics of the considered systems. In this article, we develop generalized invariance principles for continuous-time stochastic dynamical systems. Particularly, in a sense of probability one and by the developed semimartingale convergence theorem, we not only establish a local invariance principle, but also provide a generalized global invariance principle that allows the sign of the diffusion operator to be positive in some bounded region. We further provide an estimation for the time when a trajectory, initiating outside a particular bounded set, eventually enters it. Finally, we use several representative examples, including stochastic oscillating dynamics, to illustrate the practical usefulness of our analytical criteria in deciphering the stabilization or/and the synchronization dynamics of stochastic systems. |
Link[108] Using a hybrid simulation model to assess the impacts of combined COVID-19 containment measures in a high-speed train station
Author: Hongli Zhu, Shiyong Liu, Xiaoyan Li, Weiwei Zhang, Nathaniel Osgood, Peng Jia Publication date: 20 March 2023 Publication info: Journal of Simulation, 20 March 2023 Cited by: David Price 10:58 PM 7 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 679855Nathaniel OsgoodNathaniel D. Osgood is a Professor in the Department of Computer Science and Associate Faculty in the Department of Community Health & Epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan.10019D3ABAB, 701020CANMOD – PublicationsPublications by CANMOD Members144B5ACA0, 703963Mobility859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 708812Simulation859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2023.2189027
| Excerpt / Summary [Journal of Simulation, 20 March 2023]
In this study, we present a hybrid agent-based model (ABM) and discrete event simulation (DES) framework where ABM captures the spread dynamics of COVID-19 via asymptomatic passengers and DES captures the impacts of environmental variables, such as service process capacity, on the results of different containment measures in a typical high-speed train station in China. The containment and control measures simulated include as-is (nothing changed) passenger flow control, enforcing social distancing, adherence level in face mask-wearing, and adding capacity to current service stations. These measures are evaluated individually and then jointly under a different initial number of asymptomatic passengers. The results show how some measures can consolidate the outcomes for each other, while combinations of certain measures could compromise the outcomes for one or the other due to unbalanced service process configurations. The hybrid ABM and DES models offer a useful multi-function simulation tool to help inform decision/policy makers of intervention designs and implementations for addressing issues like public health emergencies and emergency evacuations. Challenges still exist for the hybrid model due to the limited availability of simulation platforms, extensive consumption of computing resources, and difficulties in validation and optimisation. |
Link[109] A Network Dynamics Model for the Transmission of COVID-19 in Diamond Princess and a Response to Reopen Large-Scale Public Facilities
Author: Yuchen Zhu, Ying Wang, Chunyu Li, Lili Liu, Chang Qi, Yan Jia, Kaili She, Tingxuan Liu, Huaiping Zhu, Xiujun Li Publication date: 12 January 2022 Publication info: Healthcare, 10(1), 139–139. Cited by: David Price 11:09 PM 7 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (4) 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 703963Mobility859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare10010139
| Excerpt / Summary [Healthcare, 12 January 2022]
Background: The current epidemic of COVID-19 has become the new normal. However, the novel coronavirus is constantly mutating. In public transportation or large entertainment venues, it can spread more quickly once an infected person is introduced. This study aims to discuss whether large public facilities can be opened and operated under the current epidemic situation.
Methods: The dual Barabási–Albert (DBA) model was used to build a contact network. A dynamics compartmental modeling framework was used to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic with different interventions on the Diamond Princess.
Results: The effect of isolation only was minor. Regardless of the transmission rate of the virus, joint interventions can prevent 96.95% (95% CI: 96.70–97.15%) of infections. Compared with evacuating only passengers, evacuating the crew and passengers can avoid about 11.90% (95% CI: 11.83–12.06%) of infections.
Conclusions: It is feasible to restore public transportation services and reopen large-scale public facilities if monitoring and testing can be in place. Evacuating all people as soon as possible is the most effective way to contain the outbreak in large-scale public facilities. |
Link[110] Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy
Author: Amy Hurford, Maria M. Martignoni, J.C. Loredo-Osti, Franics Anokye, Julien Arino, Bilal Saleh Husain, Brian Gaas, James Watmough Publication date: 18 July 2022 Publication info: medRxiv 2022.07.18.22277695; doi: Cited by: David Price 11:58 PM 7 December 2023 GMT
Citerank: (8) 679752Amy HurfordAmy Hurford is an Associate Professor jointly appointed in the Department of Biology and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador. 10019D3ABAB, 679805James WatmoughProfessor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of New Brunswick.10019D3ABAB, 679817Julien ArinoProfessor and Faculty of Science Research Chair in Fundamental Science with the Department of Mathematics at the University of Manitoba.10019D3ABAB, 690185Brian GaasModeler in the Population and Public Health Evidence and Evaluation branch of the Department of Health and Social Services, Yukon government.10019D3ABAB, 701020CANMOD – PublicationsPublications by CANMOD Members144B5ACA0, 703963Mobility859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.07.18.22277695
| Excerpt / Summary During the COVID-19 pandemic, some countries, such as Australia, China, Iceland, New Zealand, Thailand and Vietnam, successfully implemented an elimination strategy. Until June 2021, Atlantic Canada and Canada’s territories had also experienced prolonged periods with few SARS-CoV-2 community cases. Such regions had a need for epidemiological models that could assess the risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, but most existing frameworks are applicable to regions where SARS-CoV-2 is spreading in the community, and so it was necessary to adapt existing frameworks to meet this need. We distinguish between infections that are travel-related and those that occur in the community, and find that in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island the mean percentage of daily cases that were travel-related was 80% or greater (July 1, 2020 – May 31, 2021). We show that by December 24, 2021, the daily probability of an Omicron variant community outbreak establishing in NL was near one, and nearly twice as high as the previous high, which occurred in September 2021 when the Delta variant was dominant. We evaluate how vaccination and new variants might affect hypothetical future outbreaks in Mt. Pearl, NL. Our modelling framework can be used to evaluate alternative plans to relax public health restrictions when high levels of vaccination are achieved in regions that have implemented an elimination strategy. |
Link[111] Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador
Author: Amy Hurford, Proton Rahman, J. Concepción Loredo-Osti Publication date: 16 June 2021 Publication info: Royal Society Open Science, June 2021, Volume 8, Issue 6, PubMed:34150314 Cited by: David Price 0:22 AM 8 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 679752Amy HurfordAmy Hurford is an Associate Professor jointly appointed in the Department of Biology and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador. 10019D3ABAB, 703963Mobility859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.202266
| Excerpt / Summary [Royal Society Open Science, 16 June 2021]
In many jurisdictions, public health authorities have implemented travel restrictions to reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. Policies that restrict travel within countries have been implemented, but the impact of these restrictions is not well known. On 4 May 2020, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) implemented travel restrictions such that non-residents required exemptions to enter the province. We fit a stochastic epidemic model to data describing the number of active COVID-19 cases in NL from 14 March to 26 June. We predicted possible outbreaks over nine weeks, with and without the travel restrictions, and for contact rates 40–70% of pre-pandemic levels. Our results suggest that the travel restrictions reduced the mean number of clinical COVID-19 cases in NL by 92%. Furthermore, without the travel restrictions there is a substantial risk of very large outbreaks. Using epidemic modelling, we show how the NL COVID-19 outbreak could have unfolded had the travel restrictions not been implemented. Both physical distancing and travel restrictions affect the local dynamics of the epidemic. Our modelling shows that the travel restrictions are a plausible reason for the few reported COVID-19 cases in NL after 4 May. |
Link[112] Containing and Managing an Emerging Disease Outbreak: A Stochastic Modelling Approach
Author: Idriss Sekkak, Jude Dzevela Kong, Mohamed El Fatini Publication date: 15 April 2022 Publication info: Social Science Research Network Cited by: David Price 0:29 AM 8 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4040246
| Excerpt / Summary [Social Science Research Network, 15 April 2022]
The aim of this work is to design and analyze a novel stochastic model for an infectious disease transmission dynamics, that captures human responses to information about the disease, policy, and disease progression in the event of an outbreak. We design a behaviour-structured stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Quarantine-Recovered model incorporating a population logistic growth, non pharmaceutical interventions and a general functional response in order to capture respectively the long time growth of a population size, instant measures established by decision makers and human response behaviour. We carry out a thorough analysis to investigate the existence of the global and positive solutions and to explore the extinction and the persistence of the disease regarding the basic reproduction number of the model. Moreover, we use suitable Lyapunov functions and establish sufficient conditions for the existence of ergodic stationary distribution of the solution to the stochastic SIQR model. In addition, we estimate the parameters of the model by fitting it to confirmed COVID-19 cases in Morocco using least squares method. |
Link[113] A Stochastic Analysis of a Siqr Epidemic Model With Short and Long-term Prophylaxis
Author: Idriss Sekkak, Nasri, B., Rémillard, B., Jude Dzevela Kong, Mohamed El Fatini Publication date: 13 September 2022 Publication info: Research Square, 13 September 2022 Cited by: David Price 0:38 AM 8 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679759Bouchra NasriProfessor Nasri is a faculty member of Biostatistics in the Department of Social and Preventive Medicine at the University of Montreal. Prof. Nasri is an FRQS Junior 1 Scholar in Artificial Intelligence in Health and Digital Health. She holds an NSERC Discovery Grant in Statistics for time series dependence modelling for complex data.10019D3ABAB, 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1762043/v1
| Excerpt / Summary [Research Square, 13 September 2022]
This paper aims to incorporate a high order stochastic perturbation into a SIQR epidemic model with transient prophylaxis and lasting prophylaxis. The existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution is proven and a stochastic condition in order to study the extinction of an infectious disease is established. The existence of a stationary distribution for the stochastic epidemic model is investigated as well. Numerical simulations are conducted to support our theoretical results and an example of application with COVID-19 data from Canada is used to estimate the transmission rate and basic reproduction number while constructing a model fitting the data. |
Link[114] A generalized distributed delay model of COVID-19: An endemic model with immunity waning
Author: Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Rabiu Musa, Jude D. Kong Publication date: 12 January 2023 Publication info: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 20(3), 5379–5412 Cited by: David Price 0:43 AM 8 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (3) 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 704036Immunology859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2023249
| Excerpt / Summary [Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 12 January 2023]
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been spreading worldwide for over two years, with millions of reported cases and deaths. The deployment of mathematical modeling in the fight against COVID-19 has recorded tremendous success. However, most of these models target the epidemic phase of the disease. The development of safe and effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 brought hope of safe reopening of schools and businesses and return to pre-COVID normalcy, until mutant strains like the Delta and Omicron variants, which are more infectious, emerged. A few months into the pandemic, reports of the possibility of both vaccine- and infection-induced immunity waning emerged, thereby indicating that COVID-19 may be with us for longer than earlier thought. As a result, to better understand the dynamics of COVID-19, it is essential to study the disease with an endemic model. In this regard, we developed and analyzed an endemic model of COVID-19 that incorporates the waning of both vaccine- and infection-induced immunities using distributed delay equations. Our modeling framework assumes that the waning of both immunities occurs gradually over time at the population level. We derived a nonlinear ODE system from the distributed delay model and showed that the model could exhibit either a forward or backward bifurcation depending on the immunity waning rates. Having a backward bifurcation implies that Rc < 1 is not sufficient to guarantee disease eradication, and that the immunity waning rates are critical factors in eradicating COVID-19. Our numerical simulations show that vaccinating a high percentage of the population with a safe and moderately effective vaccine could help in eradicating COVID-19. |
Link[115] The basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa
Author: Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Musa Rabiu, Jummy F. David, Jude D. Kong Publication date: 25 February 2022 Publication info: PLOS ONE, 17(2), e0264455. Cited by: David Price 0:48 AM 8 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (2) 679815Jude KongDr. Jude Dzevela Kong is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University and the founding Director of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC). 10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264455
| Excerpt / Summary [PLOS ONE, 25 February 2022]
The pandemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) took the world by surprise. Following the first outbreak of COVID-19 in December 2019, several models have been developed to study and understand its transmission dynamics. Although the spread of COVID-19 is being slowed down by vaccination and other interventions, there is still a need to have a clear understanding of the evolution of the pandemic across countries, states and communities. To this end, there is a need to have a clearer picture of the initial spread of the disease in different regions. In this project, we used a simple SEIR model and a Bayesian inference framework to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa. Our estimates vary between 1.98 (Sudan) and 9.66 (Mauritius), with a median of 3.67 (90% CrI: 3.31–4.12). The estimates provided in this paper will help to inform COVID-19 modeling in the respective countries/regions. |
Link[116] An Agent-Based Modeling and Virtual Reality Application Using Distributed Simulation: Case of a COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit
Author: Jalal Possik, Ali Asgary, Adriano O. Solis, Gregory Zacharewicz, Mohammad A. Shafiee, Mahdi M. Najafabadi, Nazanin Nadri, Abel Guimaraes, Hossein Iranfar, Philip Ma, Christie M. Lee, Mohammadali Tofighi, Mehdi Aarabi, Simon Gorecki, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 1 August 2023 Publication info: IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 70(8), 2931–2943 Cited by: David Price 0:57 AM 8 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 679750Ali AsgaryAssociate Professor and Associate Director, Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation (ADERSIM) in the School of Administrative Studies, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Information Technology, at York University.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 685420Hospitals16289D5D4, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 708813Agent-based models859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/tem.2022.3195813
| Excerpt / Summary [IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, August 2023]
Hospitals and other healthcare settings use various simulation methods to improve their operations, management, and training. The COVID-19 pandemic, with the resulting necessity for rapid and remote assessment, has highlighted the critical role of modeling and simulation in healthcare, particularly distributed simulation (DS). DS enables integration of heterogeneous simulations to further increase the usability and effectiveness of individual simulations. This article presents a DS system that integrates two different simulations developed for a hospital intensive care unit (ICU) ward dedicated to COVID-19 patients. AnyLogic has been used to develop a simulation model of the ICU ward using agent-based and discrete event modeling methods. This simulation depicts and measures physical contacts between healthcare providers and patients. The Unity platform has been utilized to develop a virtual reality simulation of the ICU environment and operations. The high-level architecture, an IEEE standard for DS, has been used to build a cloud-based DS system by integrating and synchronizing the two simulation platforms. While enhancing the capabilities of both simulations, the DS system can be used for training purposes and assessment of different managerial and operational decisions to minimize contacts and disease transmission in the ICU ward by enabling data exchange between the two simulations. |
Link[117] Mathematical modelling of vaccination rollout and NPIs lifting on COVID-19 transmission with VOC: a case study in Toronto, Canada
Author: Elena Aruffo, Pei Yuan, Yi Tan, Evgenia Gatov, Iain Moyles, Jacques Bélair, James Watmough, Sarah Collier, Julien Arino, Huaiping Zhu Publication date: 15 July 2022 Publication info: BMC Public Health, Volume 22, Article number: 1349 (2022) Cited by: David Price 11:53 PM 13 December 2023 GMT
Citerank: (10) 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 679799Iain MoylesAssistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University. 10019D3ABAB, 679803Jacques BélairProfessor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Université de Montréal10019D3ABAB, 679805James WatmoughProfessor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of New Brunswick.10019D3ABAB, 679817Julien ArinoProfessor and Faculty of Science Research Chair in Fundamental Science with the Department of Mathematics at the University of Manitoba.10019D3ABAB, 701222OMNI – Publications144B5ACA0, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 714608Charting a FutureCharting a Future for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling in Canada – April 2023 [1] 2794CAE1, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13597-9
| Excerpt / Summary [BMC Public Health, 15 July 2022]
Background: Since December 2020, public health agencies have implemented a variety of vaccination strategies to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2, along with pre-existing Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). Initial strategies focused on vaccinating the elderly to prevent hospitalizations and deaths, but with vaccines becoming available to the broader population, it became important to determine the optimal strategy to enable the safe lifting of NPIs while avoiding virus resurgence.
Methods: We extended the classic deterministic SIR compartmental disease-transmission model to simulate the lifting of NPIs under different vaccine rollout scenarios. Using case and vaccination data from Toronto, Canada between December 28, 2020, and May 19, 2021, we estimated transmission throughout past stages of NPI escalation/relaxation to compare the impact of lifting NPIs on different dates on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, given varying degrees of vaccine coverages by 20-year age groups, accounting for waning immunity.
Results: We found that, once coverage among the elderly is high enough (80% with at least one dose), the main age groups to target are 20–39 and 40–59 years, wherein first-dose coverage of at least 70% by mid-June 2021 is needed to minimize the possibility of resurgence if NPIs are to be lifted in the summer. While a resurgence was observed for every scenario of NPI lifting, we also found that under an optimistic vaccination coverage (70% coverage by mid-June, along with postponing reopening from August 2021 to September 2021) can reduce case counts and severe outcomes by roughly 57% by December 31, 2021.
Conclusions: Our results suggest that focusing the vaccination strategy on the working-age population can curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, even with high vaccination coverage in adults, increasing contacts and easing protective personal behaviours is not advisable since a resurgence is expected to occur, especially with an earlier reopening. |
Link[118] COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths averted under an accelerated vaccination program in northeastern and southern regions of the USA
Author: Thomas N. Vilches, Pratha Sah, Seyed M. Moghadas, Affan Shoukat, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Peter J. Hotez, Eric C. Schneider, Alison P. Galvani Publication date: 28 December 2021 Publication info: The Lancet Regional Health, Americas 6: 100147, Volume 6, 100147, February 2022 Cited by: David Price 6:19 PM 14 December 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 679878Seyed MoghadasSeyed Moghadas is an infectious disease modeller whose research includes mathematical and computational modelling in epidemiology and immunology. In particular, he is interested in the theoretical and computational aspects of mathematical models describing the underlying dynamics of infectious diseases, with a particular emphasis on establishing strong links between micro (individual) and macro (population) levels.10019D3ABAB, 685420Hospitals16289D5D4, 704041Vaccination859FDEF6, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715390Mortality859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2021.100147
| Excerpt / Summary [The Lancet Regional Health, 28 December 2022]
Background: The fourth wave of COVID-19 pandemic peaked in the US at 160,000 daily cases, concentrated primarily in southern states. As the Delta variant has continued to spread, we evaluated the impact of accelerated vaccination on reducing hospitalization and deaths across northeastern and southern regions of the US census divisions.
Methods: We used an age-stratified agent-based model of COVID-19 to simulate outbreaks in all states within two U.S. regions. The model was calibrated using reported incidence in each state from October 1, 2020 to August 31, 2021, and parameterized with characteristics of the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and state-specific daily vaccination rate. We then projected the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths that would be averted between September 2021 and the end of March 2022 if the states increased their daily vaccination rate by 20 or 50% compared to maintaining the status quo pace observed during August 2021.
Findings: A 50% increase in daily vaccine doses administered to previously unvaccinated individuals is projected to prevent a total of 30,727 hospitalizations and 11,937 deaths in the two regions between September 2021 and the end of March 2022. Southern states were projected to have a higher weighted average number of hospitalizations averted (18.8) and lives saved (8.3) per 100,000 population, compared to the weighted average of hospitalizations (12.4) and deaths (2.7) averted in northeastern states. On a per capita basis, a 50% increase in daily vaccinations is expected to avert the most hospitalizations in Kentucky (56.7 hospitalizations per 100,000 averted with 95% CrI: 45.56 - 69.9) and prevent the most deaths in Mississippi, (22.1 deaths per 100,000 population prevented with 95% CrI: 18.0 - 26.9).
Interpretation: Accelerating progress to population-level immunity by raising the daily pace of vaccination would prevent substantial hospitalizations and deaths in the US, even in those states that have passed a Delta-driven peak in infections. |
Link[119] Modeling the role of respiratory droplets in Covid-19 type pandemics
Author: Swetaprovo Chaudhuri, Saptarshi Basu, Prasenjit Kabi, Vishnu R. Unni, Abhishek Saha Publication date: 30 June 2020 Publication info: Physics of Fluids 32, 063309 (2020) Cited by: David Price 12:11 PM 23 January 2024 GMT Citerank: (2) 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 717032Swetaprovo ChaudhuriSwetaprovo is an Associate Professor in the Institute for Aerospace Studies in the Faculty of Applied Science and Engineering at the University of Toronto.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0015984
| Excerpt / Summary [Physics of Fluids, 30 June 2020]
In this paper, we develop a first principles model that connects respiratory droplet physics with the evolution of a pandemic such as the ongoing Covid-19. The model has two parts. First, we model the growth rate of the infected population based on a reaction mechanism. The advantage of modeling the pandemic using the reaction mechanism is that the rate constants have sound physical interpretation. The infection rate constant is derived using collision rate theory and shown to be a function of the respiratory droplet lifetime. In the second part, we have emulated the respiratory droplets responsible for disease transmission as salt solution droplets and computed their evaporation time, accounting for droplet cooling, heat and mass transfer, and finally, crystallization of the dissolved salt. The model output favourably compares with the experimentally obtained evaporation characteristics of levitated droplets of pure water and salt solution, respectively, ensuring fidelity of the model. The droplet evaporation/desiccation time is, indeed, dependent on ambient temperature and is also a strong function of relative humidity. The multi-scale model thus developed and the firm theoretical underpinning that connects the two scales—macro-scale pandemic dynamics and micro-scale droplet physics—thus could emerge as a powerful tool in elucidating the role of environmental factors on infection spread through respiratory droplets. |
Link[121] Analyzing the dominant SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes toward an ab initio disease spread model
Author: Swetaprovo Chaudhuri, Saptarshi Basu, Abhishek Saha Publication date: 4 December 2020 Publication info: Physics of Fluids 32, 123306 (2020) Cited by: David Price 7:39 PM 24 January 2024 GMT Citerank: (2) 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 717032Swetaprovo ChaudhuriSwetaprovo is an Associate Professor in the Institute for Aerospace Studies in the Faculty of Applied Science and Engineering at the University of Toronto.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0034032
| Excerpt / Summary [Physics of Fluids, 4 December 2020]
Identifying the relative importance of the different transmission routes of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is an urgent research priority. To that end, the different transmission routes and their role in determining the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic are analyzed in this work. The probability of infection caused by inhaling virus-laden droplets (initial ejection diameters between 0.5 µm and 750 µm, therefore including both airborne and ballistic droplets) and the corresponding desiccated nuclei that mostly encapsulate the virions post droplet evaporation are individually calculated. At typical, air-conditioned yet quiescent indoor space, for average viral loading, cough droplets of initial diameter between 10 µm and 50 µm are found to have the highest infection probability. However, by the time they are inhaled, the diameters reduce to about 1/6th of their initial diameters. While the initially near unity infection probability due to droplets rapidly decays within the first 25 s, the small yet persistent infection probability of desiccated nuclei decays appreciably only by O (1000s) , assuming that the virus sustains equally well within the dried droplet nuclei as in the droplets. Combined with molecular collision theory adapted to calculate the frequency of contact between the susceptible population and the droplet/nuclei cloud, infection rate constants are derived ab initio, leading to a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-deceased model applicable for any respiratory event–vector combination. The viral load, minimum infectious dose, sensitivity of the virus half-life to the phase of its vector, and dilution of the respiratory jet/puff by the entraining air are shown to mechanistically determine specific physical modes of transmission and variation in the basic reproduction number from first-principles calculations. |
Link[122] Effect of wetness on penetration dynamics of droplets impacted on facemasks
Author: Abhishek Saha, Sombuddha Bagchi, Saptarshi Basu, Swetaprovo Chaudhuri Publication date: 21 November 2021 Publication info: 74th Annual Meeting of the APS Division of Fluid Dynamics, Volume 66, Number 17 Cited by: David Price 7:57 PM 24 January 2024 GMT Citerank: (3) 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6, 717032Swetaprovo ChaudhuriSwetaprovo is an Associate Professor in the Institute for Aerospace Studies in the Faculty of Applied Science and Engineering at the University of Toronto.10019D3ABAB URL:
| Excerpt / Summary [APS Division of Fluid Dynamics, 21 November 2021]
Properly designed facemasks can limit the spread of ballistic droplets and aerosol particles coming out of oral and nasal cavities during respiratory events, such as sneezing, coughing, singing, talking etc. Furthermore, it can also protect the user from inhaling small droplets, droplet nuclei, or aerosol particles. Thus, proper usage of facemasks can prevent the transmission of many diseases, including Covid19, influenza, measles, and the common cold. Although N95 masks are particularly designed to provide the best protection, various types of facemask became popular during the Covid19 pandemic due to a shortage of supply and high demand. In our recent study (Sharma et al. Sc. Adv. (2021) 7, eabf0452), we reported the fate of a respiratory droplet impacting on a dry facemask to show that larger droplets can penetrate the mask layers and undergo secondary atomizations leading to multiple smaller droplets. In this work, we focus on the effect of the wetness of the mask matrix on this atomization process. Indeed, due to the condensation process, longtime use renders the masks wet, and hence, its influence on the efficacy in blocking the droplet is worth investigating. We will present a regime map to show the penetration probability with impact velocity and wetness for two different types of masks. We will also present a scaling argument to explain the observed effects of wetness on penetration. |
Link[123] An exposition of facemask efficacy against large size cough droplets
Author: Shubham Sharma, Roven Pinto, Abhishek Saha, Swetaprovo Chaudhuri, Saptarshi Basu Publication date: 21 November 2021 Publication info: 74th Annual Meeting of the APS Division of Fluid Dynamics, Volume 66, Number 17, Sunday–Tuesday, November 21–23, 2021 Cited by: David Price 5:03 PM 25 January 2024 GMT Citerank: (3) 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6, 717032Swetaprovo ChaudhuriSwetaprovo is an Associate Professor in the Institute for Aerospace Studies in the Faculty of Applied Science and Engineering at the University of Toronto.10019D3ABAB URL: | Excerpt / Summary [74th Annual Meeting of the APS Division of Fluid Dynamics, 21 November 2021]
The usage of facemasks has been ubiquitously recommended worldwide as a physical barrier to the ejected droplet during respiratory events. This is an effective strategy for restricting various droplet-based disease transmission, as in the case of COVID-19. Although the N95 facemask has high efficacy against respiratory droplets, its accessibility/affordability for the general population is still deprived. As a possible solution, using a makeshift facemask (surgical or cotton facemasks) is generally advised by policymakers. Although such endorsement could be economical and accessible, quantitative analysis on the effectiveness of such facemasks is still lacking. Using a large-sized surrogate cough droplet, we identified an additional route of disease transmission, which involves atomization of large-sized cough droplets into numerous daughter droplets. It is shown that most of such atomized droplets are of sizes which is critical for aerosolization1. This suggested that the amount of aerosol generated (thereby the risk of infection) through this mechanism is higher than the earlier predictions based on mask filtration efficiencies alone. A scaling argument based on the energy balance of impact dynamics was obtained and verified using experiments to identify a criterion for droplet penetration through a mask layer. The parametric analysis was also carried, which involves droplet impact velocities (corresponding to different respiratory events), impact angles (corresponding to different mask orientations), mask fabrics (surgical and cotton facemasks), and different washing cycles. The obtained results are discussed in detail, and a recommendation of the most suitable fabric for making homemade facemasks is presented. |
Link[124] On secondary atomization and blockage of surrogate cough droplets in single- and multilayer face masks
Author: Shubham Sharma, Roven Pinto, Abhishek Saha, Swetaprovo Chaudhuri, Saptarshi Basu Publication date: 5 March 2021 Publication info: Science Advances, 7 (10), eabf0452 Cited by: David Price 8:45 PM 25 January 2024 GMT Citerank: (3) 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6, 717032Swetaprovo ChaudhuriSwetaprovo is an Associate Professor in the Institute for Aerospace Studies in the Faculty of Applied Science and Engineering at the University of Toronto.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf0452
| Excerpt / Summary [Science Advances, 5 March 2021]
Face masks prevent transmission of infectious respiratory diseases by blocking large droplets and aerosols during exhalation or inhalation. While three-layer masks are generally advised, many commonly available or makeshift masks contain single or double layers. Using carefully designed experiments involving high-speed imaging along with physics-based analysis, we show that high-momentum, large-sized (>250 micrometer) surrogate cough droplets can penetrate single- or double-layer mask material to a significant extent. The penetrated droplets can atomize into numerous much smaller (<100 micrometer) droplets, which could remain airborne for a significant time. The possibility of secondary atomization of high-momentum cough droplets by hydrodynamic focusing and extrusion through the microscale pores in the fibrous network of the single/double-layer mask material needs to be considered in determining mask efficacy. Three-layer masks can effectively block these droplets and thus could be ubiquitously used as a key tool against COVID-19 or similar respiratory diseases. |
Link[125] An opinion on the multiscale nature of Covid-19 type disease spread
Author: Swetaprovo Chaudhuri, Abhishek Saha, Saptarshi Basu Publication date: 1 May 2021 Publication info: Current Opinion in Colloid & Interface Science, 01 May 2021, 54:101462, PMID: 33967585 PMCID: PMC8088079 Cited by: David Price 11:27 PM 25 January 2024 GMT Citerank: (3) 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6, 717032Swetaprovo ChaudhuriSwetaprovo is an Associate Professor in the Institute for Aerospace Studies in the Faculty of Applied Science and Engineering at the University of Toronto.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cocis.2021.101462
| Excerpt / Summary [Current Opinion in Colloid & Interface Science, 1 May 2021]
Recognizing the multiscale, interdisciplinary nature of the Covid-19 transmission dynamics, we discuss some recent developments concerning an attempt to construct a disease spread model from the flow physics of infectious droplets and aerosols and the frequency of contact between susceptible individuals with the infectious aerosol cloud. Such an approach begins with the exhalation event–specific, respiratory droplet size distribution (both airborne/aerosolized and ballistic droplets), followed by tracking its evolution in the exhaled air to estimate the probability of infection and the rate constants of the disease spread model. The basic formulations and structure of submodels, experiments involved to validate those submodels, are discussed. Finally, in the context of preventive measures, respiratory droplet–face mask interactions are described. |
Link[126] Two-dimensional mathematical framework for evaporation dynamics of respiratory droplets
Author: Sreeparna Majee, Abhishek Saha, Swetaprovo Chaudhuri, Dipshikha Chakravortty, Saptarshi Basu Publication date: 1 October 2021 Publication info: Physics of Fluids, 33, 103302 (2021) Cited by: David Price 11:42 PM 25 January 2024 GMT Citerank: (2) 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 717032Swetaprovo ChaudhuriSwetaprovo is an Associate Professor in the Institute for Aerospace Studies in the Faculty of Applied Science and Engineering at the University of Toronto.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0064635
| Excerpt / Summary [Physics of Fluids, 1 October 2021]
In majority of pandemics in human history, respiratory bio-aerosol is the most common route of transmission of diseases. These tiny droplets ejected through mouth and nose from an infected person during exhalation process like coughing, sneezing, speaking, and breathing consist of pathogens and a complex mixture of volatile and nonvolatile substances. A cloud of droplets ejected in such an event gets transmitted in the air, causing a series of coupled thermo-physical processes. Contemplating an individual airborne droplet in the cloud, boundary layers and wakes develop due to relative motion between the droplet and the ambient air. The complex phenomenon of the droplet's dynamics, such as shear-driven internal circulation of the liquid phase and Stefan flow due to vaporization or condensation, comes into effect. In this study, we present a mathematical description of the coupled subprocesses, including droplet aerodynamics, heat, and mass transfer, which were identified and subsequently solved. The presented two-dimensional model gives a complete analysis encompassing the gas phase coupled with the liquid phase responsible for the airborne droplet kinetics in the ambient environment. The transient inhomogeneity of temperature and concentration distribution in the liquid phase caused due to the convective and diffusive transports are captured in the 2D model. The evaporation time and distance traveled by droplets prior to nuclei or aerosol formation are computed for major geographical locations around the globe for nominal-windy conditions. The model presented can be used for determining the evaporation timescale of any viral or bacterial laden respiratory droplets across any geographical location. |
Link[127] Analysis of overdispersion in airborne transmission of COVID-19
Author: Swetaprovo Chaudhuri, Prasad Kasibhatla, Arnab Mukherjee, William Pan, Glenn Morrison, Sharmistha Mishra, Vijaya Kumar Murty Publication date: 31 May 2022 Publication info: Physics of Fluids 34, 051914 (2022) Cited by: David Price 0:03 AM 26 January 2024 GMT Citerank: (3) 679893Kumar MurtyProfessor Kumar Murty is in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Toronto. His research fields are Analytic Number Theory, Algebraic Number Theory, Arithmetic Algebraic Geometry and Information Security. He is the founder of the GANITA lab, co-founder of Prata Technologies and PerfectCloud. His interest in mathematics ranges from the pure study of the subject to its applications in data and information security.10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 717032Swetaprovo ChaudhuriSwetaprovo is an Associate Professor in the Institute for Aerospace Studies in the Faculty of Applied Science and Engineering at the University of Toronto.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0089347
| Excerpt / Summary [Physics of Fluids, 31 May 2022]
Superspreading events and overdispersion are hallmarks of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the specific roles and influence of established viral and physical factors related to the mechanisms of transmission, on overdispersion, remain unresolved. We, therefore, conducted mechanistic modeling of SARS-CoV-2 point-source transmission by infectious aerosols using real-world occupancy data from more than 100 000 social contact settings in ten US metropolises. We found that 80% of secondary infections are predicted to arise from approximately 4% of index cases, which show up as a stretched tail in the probability density function of secondary infections per infectious case. Individual-level variability in viral load emerges as the dominant driver of overdispersion, followed by occupancy. We then derived an analytical function, which replicates the simulated overdispersion, and with which we demonstrate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. Our analysis, connecting the mechanistic understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by aerosols with observed large-scale epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 outbreaks, adds an important dimension to the mounting body of evidence with regard to airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and thereby emerges as a powerful tool toward assessing the probability of outbreaks and the potential impact of mitigation strategies on large scale disease dynamics. |
Link[128] Analysing the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 infections in schools: integrating model predictions with real world observations
Author: Arnab Mukherjee, Sharmistha Mishra, Vijay Kumar Murty, Swetaprovo Chaudhuri Publication date: 21 December 2023 Publication info: bioRxiv, 21 December 2023 Cited by: David Price 0:20 AM 26 January 2024 GMT Citerank: (6) 679880Sharmistha MishraSharmistha Mishra is an infectious disease physician and mathematical modeler and holds a Tier 2 Canadian Research Chair in Mathematical Modeling and Program Science.10019D3ABAB, 679893Kumar MurtyProfessor Kumar Murty is in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Toronto. His research fields are Analytic Number Theory, Algebraic Number Theory, Arithmetic Algebraic Geometry and Information Security. He is the founder of the GANITA lab, co-founder of Prata Technologies and PerfectCloud. His interest in mathematics ranges from the pure study of the subject to its applications in data and information security.10019D3ABAB, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 715328Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)859FDEF6, 715617Schools859FDEF6, 717032Swetaprovo ChaudhuriSwetaprovo is an Associate Professor in the Institute for Aerospace Studies in the Faculty of Applied Science and Engineering at the University of Toronto.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.12.21.572736; t
| Excerpt / Summary [bioRxiv, 21 December 2023]
School closures were used as strategies to mitigate transmission in the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the nature of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and the distribution of infections in classrooms could help inform targeted or ‘precision’ preventive measures and outbreak management in schools, in response to future pandemics. In this work, we derive an analytical model of Probability Density Function (PDF) of SARS-CoV-2 secondary infections and compare the model with infection data from all public schools in Ontario, Canada between September-December, 2021. The model accounts for major sources of variability in airborne transmission like viral load and dose-response (i.e., the human body’s response to pathogen exposure), air change rate, room dimension, and classroom occupancy. Comparisons between reported cases and the modeled PDF demonstrated the intrinsic overdispersed nature of the real-world and modeled distributions, but uncovered deviations stemming from an assumption of homogeneous spread within a classroom. The inclusion of near-field transmission effects resolved the discrepancy with improved quantitative agreement between the data and modeled distributions. This study provides a practical tool for predicting the size of outbreaks from one index infection, in closed spaces such as schools, and could be applied to inform more focused mitigation measures. |
Link[129] Canada’s provincial COVID-19 pandemic modelling efforts: A review of mathematical models and their impacts on the responses
Author: Yiqing Xia, Jorge Luis Flores Anato, Caroline Colijn, Naveed Janjua, Mike Irvine, Tyler Williamson, Marie B. Varughese, Michael Li, Nathaniel Osgood, David J. D. Earn, Beate Sander, Lauren E. Cipriano, Kumar Murty, Fanyu Xiu, Arnaud Godin, David Buckeridge, Amy Hurford, Sharmistha Mishra, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux Publication date: 25 July 2024 Publication info: Canadian Journal of Public Health, Volume 115, pages 541–557, (2024) Cited by: David Price 0:45 AM 10 December 2024 GMT
Citerank: (14) 679712CANMOD – PeopleCANMOD is a national network, with members located across the country and associated with a broader Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling (EIDM) initiative. We are a community of modellers, statisticians, epidemiologists, public health decision-makers, and those implementing and delivering interventions.10019D3ABAB, 679752Amy HurfordAmy Hurford is an Associate Professor jointly appointed in the Department of Biology and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador. 10019D3ABAB, 679757Beate SanderCanada Research Chair in Economics of Infectious Diseases and Director, Health Modeling & Health Economics and Population Health Economics Research at THETA (Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment Collaborative).10019D3ABAB, 679761Caroline ColijnDr. Caroline Colijn works at the interface of mathematics, evolution, infection and public health, and leads the MAGPIE research group. She joined SFU's Mathematics Department in 2018 as a Canada 150 Research Chair in Mathematics for Infection, Evolution and Public Health. She has broad interests in applications of mathematics to questions in evolution and public health, and was a founding member of Imperial College London's Centre for the Mathematics of Precision Healthcare.10019D3ABAB, 679775David BuckeridgeDavid is a Professor in the School of Population and Global Health at McGill University, where he directs the Surveillance Lab, an interdisciplinary group that develops, implements, and evaluates novel computational methods for population health surveillance. He is also the Chief Digital Health Officer at the McGill University Health Center where he directs strategy on digital transformation and analytics and he is an Associate Member with the Montreal Institute for Learning Algorithms (Mila).10019D3ABAB, 679776David EarnProfessor of Mathematics and Faculty of Science Research Chair in Mathematical Epidemiology at McMaster University.10019D3ABAB, 679844Mathieu Maheu-GirouxCanada Research Chair (Tier 2) in Population Health Modeling and Associate Professor, McGill University.10019D3ABAB, 679855Nathaniel OsgoodNathaniel D. Osgood is a Professor in the Department of Computer Science and Associate Faculty in the Department of Community Health & Epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan.10019D3ABAB, 679856Naveed Zafar JanjuaDr. Naveed Zafar Janjua is an epidemiologist and senior scientist at the BC Centre for Disease Control and Clinical Associate Professor at School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia. Dr. Janjua is a Medical Doctor (MBBS) with a Masters of Science (MSc) degree in Epidemiology & Biostatistics and Doctorate in Public Health (DrPH). 10019D3ABAB, 679880Sharmistha MishraSharmistha Mishra is an infectious disease physician and mathematical modeler and holds a Tier 2 Canadian Research Chair in Mathematical Modeling and Program Science.10019D3ABAB, 679893Kumar MurtyProfessor Kumar Murty is in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Toronto. His research fields are Analytic Number Theory, Algebraic Number Theory, Arithmetic Algebraic Geometry and Information Security. He is the founder of the GANITA lab, co-founder of Prata Technologies and PerfectCloud. His interest in mathematics ranges from the pure study of the subject to its applications in data and information security.10019D3ABAB, 685387Michael Y LiProfessor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences at the University of Alberta, and Director of the Information Research Lab (IRL).10019D3ABAB, 701020CANMOD – PublicationsPublications by CANMOD Members144B5ACA0, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.17269/s41997-024-00910-9
| Excerpt / Summary [Canadian Journal of Public Health, 25 July 2024]
Setting: Mathematical modelling played an important role in the public health response to COVID-19 in Canada. Variability in epidemic trajectories, modelling approaches, and data infrastructure across provinces provides a unique opportunity to understand the factors that shaped modelling strategies.
Intervention: Provinces implemented stringent pandemic interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission, considering evidence from epidemic models. This study aimed to summarize provincial COVID-19 modelling efforts. We identified modelling teams working with provincial decision-makers, through referrals and membership in Canadian modelling networks. Information on models, data sources, and knowledge translation were abstracted using standardized instruments.
Outcomes: We obtained information from six provinces. For provinces with sustained community transmission, initial modelling efforts focused on projecting epidemic trajectories and healthcare demands, and evaluating impacts of proposed interventions. In provinces with low community transmission, models emphasized quantifying importation risks. Most of the models were compartmental and deterministic, with projection horizons of a few weeks. Models were updated regularly or replaced by new ones, adapting to changing local epidemic dynamics, pathogen characteristics, vaccines, and requests from public health. Surveillance datasets for cases, hospitalizations and deaths, and serological studies were the main data sources for model calibration. Access to data for modelling and the structure for knowledge translation differed markedly between provinces.
Implication: Provincial modelling efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic were tailored to local contexts and modulated by available resources. Strengthening Canadian modelling capacity, developing and sustaining collaborations between modellers and governments, and ensuring earlier access to linked and timely surveillance data could help improve pandemic preparedness. |
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