|Evolution of the virus: variants, transmission bottlenecks and fitness|
This project aims to develop models of virus evolution in-host, and extend our mathematical analysis to virus transmission bottlenecks, to determine probabilities of mutant virus transmission. We will quantify probabilities of virus evolution and transmission in-host and between hosts, given host heterogeneities in infection and immune system characteristics, and different characteristics of virus mutants that increase virus ‘fitness’.
- Viral evolution can undermine the positive benefits of public health, therapeutic and vaccine interventions during a pandemic/epidemic.
- Co-Project Investigators: Jane Heffernan, Jude Dzevela Kong, Iain Moyles, Hanna Jankowski (York University), Jacques Bélair (Université de Montréal), James Watmough (University of New Brunswick), Matthew Betti (Mount Allison University)