Citerank: (22) 679703EIDM?The Emerging Infectious Diseases Modelling Initiative (EIDM) – by the Public Health Agency of Canada and NSERC – aims to establish multi-disciplinary network(s) of specialists across the country in modelling infectious diseases to be applied to public needs associated with emerging infectious diseases and pandemics such as COVID-19. [1]7F1CEB7, 679761Caroline ColijnDr. Caroline Colijn works at the interface of mathematics, evolution, infection and public health, and leads the MAGPIE research group. She joined SFU's Mathematics Department in 2018 as a Canada 150 Research Chair in Mathematics for Infection, Evolution and Public Health. She has broad interests in applications of mathematics to questions in evolution and public health, and was a founding member of Imperial College London's Centre for the Mathematics of Precision Healthcare.10019D3ABAB, 679769Christopher CottonChristopher Cotton is a Professor of Economics at Queen’s University where he holds the Jarislowsky-Deutsch Chair in Economic & Financial Policy.10019D3ABAB, 679776David EarnProfessor of Mathematics and Faculty of Science Research Chair in Mathematical Epidemiology at McMaster University.10019D3ABAB, 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 679806Jane HeffernanJane Heffernan is a professor of infectious disease modelling in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at York University. She is a co-director of the Canadian Centre for Disease Modelling, and she leads national and international networks in mathematical immunology and the modelling of waning and boosting immunity.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679826Laura CowenAssociate Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Victoria.10019D3ABAB, 679842Mark LewisProfessor Mark Lewis, Kennedy Chair in Mathematical Biology at the University of Victoria and Emeritus Professor at the University of Alberta.10019D3ABAB, 679858Patrick BrownAssociate Professor in the Centre for Global Health Research at St. Michael’s Hospital, and in the Department of Statistical Sciences at the University of Toronto.10019D3ABAB, 679859Patrick LeightonPatrick Leighton is a Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health at the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Montreal, and an active member of the Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health Research Group (GREZOSP) and the Centre for Public Health Research (CReSP). 10019D3ABAB, 679869Rob DeardonAssociate Professor in the Department of Production Animal Health in the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics in the Faculty of Science at the University of Calgary.10019D3ABAB, 679875Sarah OttoProfessor in Zoology. Theoretical biologist, Canada Research Chair in Theoretical and Experimental Evolution, and Killam Professor at the University of British Columbia.10019D3ABAB, 679890Troy DayTroy Day is a Professor and the Associate Head of the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Queen’s University. He is an applied mathematician whose research focuses on dynamical systems, optimization, and game theory, applied to models of infectious disease dynamics and evolutionary biology.10019D3ABAB, 679893Kumar MurtyProfessor Kumar Murty is in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Toronto. His research fields are Analytic Number Theory, Algebraic Number Theory, Arithmetic Algebraic Geometry and Information Security. He is the founder of the GANITA lab, co-founder of Prata Technologies and PerfectCloud. His interest in mathematics ranges from the pure study of the subject to its applications in data and information security.10019D3ABAB, 701020CANMOD – PublicationsPublications by CANMOD Members144B5ACA0, 701037MfPH – Publications144B5ACA0, 701071OSN – Publications144B5ACA0, 701222OMNI – Publications144B5ACA0, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 714608Charting a FutureCharting a Future for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling in Canada – April 2023 [1] 2794CAE1, 715387SMMEID – Publications144B5ACA0

We propose an independent institute of emerging infectious disease modellers and policy experts, with an academic core, capable of renewing itself as needed. This institute will combine science and knowledge translation to inform decision-makers at all levels of government and ensure the highest level of preparedness (and readiness) for the next public health emergency. The Public Health Modelling Institute will provide cost-effective, science-based modelling for public policymakers in an easily visualizable, integrated framework, which can respond in an agile manner to changing needs, questions, and data. To be effective, the Institute must link to modelling groups within government, who are best able to pose questions and convey results for use by public policymakers.

[Vaccine, 30 August 2024]

Background: Health Canada recently authorized the RSVpreF pregnancy vaccine and nirsevimab to protect infants against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease.

Objective: Assess the cost-effectiveness of RSVpreF and nirsevimab programs in preventing RSV disease in infants, compared to a palivizumab program.

Methods: We used a static cohort model of a Canadian birth cohort during their first RSV season to estimate sequential incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in 2023 Canadian dollars per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for nine strategies implemented over a one-year time period, from the health system and societal perspectives. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to explore the impact of uncertainties on the results.

Results: All-infants nirsevimab programs averted more RSV-related outcomes than year-round RSVpreF programs, with the most RSV cases averted in a seasonal nirsevimab program with catch-up. Assuming list prices for these immunizing agents, all-infants nirsevimab and year-round RSVpreF programs were never cost-effective, with ICERs far exceeding commonly used cost-effectiveness thresholds. Seasonal nirsevimab with catch-up for infants born outside the RSV season was a cost-effective program if prioritized for infants at moderate/high-risk (ICER <$28,000 per QALY) or those living in settings with higher RSV burden and healthcare costs, such as remote communities where transport would be complex (ICER of $5700 per QALY). Using a $50,000 per QALY threshold, an all-infants nirsevimab program could be optimal if nirsevimab is priced at <$110–190 per dose. A year-round RSVpreF for all pregnant women and pregnant people plus nirsevimab for infants at high-risk was optimal if nirsevimab is priced at >$110–190 per dose and RSVpreF priced at <$60–125 per dose.

Interpretation: Prophylactic interventions can substantially reduce RSV disease in infants, and more focused nirsevimab programs are the most cost-effective option at current product prices.