Part I in Fall 2022

• This course introduces students to the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases in One Health. Infectious diseases models are developed to track infection and transmission in animal, plant, and human populations. Particular attention is paid to infections that can be transmitted between humans, animals and the environment. Public health mitigation, as well as animal and environmental pathogen control are discussed, and the models are extended to include vaccination, drug therapies and population contact control strategies in public health and healthcare. Students will learn to formulate, analyze, parameterize, and validate quantitative models for infectious disease processes and data.

• Applications include SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, avian influenza, bacterial diseases and antibiotic resistance, and fungal pathogens and antifungal resistance. Approaches involve computer simulation, differential equations, individual-based models, least squares, likelihood, matrix equations, Markov processes, and stochastic processes. Computing labs cover simulation and programming methods in specific software programs that are popular in the field of Infectious Disease Modelling.

• Course discussions in model evaluation and appraisal of current literature include opportunities for reflection and communication. Students will have the opportunity to collaborate with their course colleagues on group projects.

Syllabus

Introduction

• Review of the basic models of diseases transmission and immunity (3 hours)
• Review of the models of animal, plant and human population growth (3 hours)
• Introduction to coronaviruses (1 hour)
• Introduction to zoonoses (1 hour)

Theme 1: Coronaviruses

• Introduction to SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV (1 hour)
• Introduction to the mathematical modelling of SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV in the human and animal interface (3 hours)
• Extension of SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-CoV models to include public health mitigation, population control, and pharmaceutical interventions (3 hours)
• Group work and presentations (3 hours)

Theme 2: Influenza

• Introduction to avian and swine influenza (1 hour)
• Introduction to mathematical modelling of swine and avian influenza (3 hours)
• Extension of swine and avian influenza models to include public health mitigation, population control, and pharmaceutical interventions (3 hours)
• Group work and presentations (3 hours)

Theme 3: Environmental transmission of bacterial and fungal pathogens

• Introduction to environmental transmission of bacteria and fungal pathogens and antimicrobial/antifungal resistance (1 hour)
• Introduction to the mathematical modelling of environmental transmission including animals and humans (3 hours)
• Extension of environmental transmission models to include public health mitigation, agricultural control, and pharmaceutical interventions (3 hours)
• Group work and presentations (3 hours)

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