|Brian Gaas Person1 #690185|
Modeler in the Population and Public Health Evidence and Evaluation branch of the Department of Health and Social Services, Yukon government.
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|Link Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy|
Author: Amy Hurford, Maria M. Martignoni, J.C. Loredo-Osti, Franics Anokye, Julien Arino, Bilal Saleh Husain, Brian Gaas, James Watmough
Publication date: 18 July 2022
Publication info: medRxiv 2022.07.18.22277695; doi:
Cited by: David Price 9:49 AM 21 October 2022 GMT
Citerank: (3) 679752Amy HurfordAmy Hurford is an Associate Professor jointly appointed in the Department of Biology and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador. 10019D3ABAB, 679805James WatmoughProfessor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of New Brunswick.10019D3ABAB, 679817Julien ArinoProfessor and Faculty of Science Research Chair in Fundamental Science with the Department of Mathematics at the University of Manitoba.10019D3ABAB
|Excerpt / Summary|
During the COVID-19 pandemic, some countries, such as Australia, China, Iceland, New Zealand, Thailand and Vietnam, successfully implemented an elimination strategy. Until June 2021, Atlantic Canada and Canada’s territories had also experienced prolonged periods with few SARS-CoV-2 community cases. Such regions had a need for epidemiological models that could assess the risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, but most existing frameworks are applicable to regions where SARS-CoV-2 is spreading in the community, and so it was necessary to adapt existing frameworks to meet this need. We distinguish between infections that are travel-related and those that occur in the community, and find that in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island the mean percentage of daily cases that were travel-related was 80% or greater (July 1, 2020 – May 31, 2021). We show that by December 24, 2021, the daily probability of an Omicron variant community outbreak establishing in NL was near one, and nearly twice as high as the previous high, which occurred in September 2021 when the Delta variant was dominant. We evaluate how vaccination and new variants might affect hypothetical future outbreaks in Mt. Pearl, NL. Our modelling framework can be used to evaluate alternative plans to relax public health restrictions when high levels of vaccination are achieved in regions that have implemented an elimination strategy.