[AIMS Mathematics, 10 January 2022]

Public opinion and opinion dynamics can have a strong effect on the transmission rate of an infectious disease for which there is no vaccine. The coupling of disease and opinion dynamics however, creates a dynamical system that is complex and poorly understood. We present a simple model in which susceptible groups adopt or give up prophylactic behaviour in accordance with the influence related to pro- and con-prophylactic communication. This influence varies with disease prevalence. We observe how the speed of the opinion dynamics affects the total size and peak size of the epidemic. We find that more reactive populations will experience a lower peak epidemic size, but possibly a larger final size and more epidemic waves, and that an increase in polarization results in a larger epidemic.

[Ecological Modelling, 31 July 2023]

Populations of wild insect pollinators such as bumble bees are threatened worldwide, which compromises pollinator-dependent crop yields. Intentionally planting wildflower patches in agricultural landscapes can support these populations and increase the pollination of nearby crops via the “spillover effect” (i.e., the exporter hypothesis), but may also distract bees from the crops and reduce their pollination via the “Circe principle” (i.e., the aggregation hypothesis). Considering the potentially high costs of these management strategies and the necessity to support wild insect pollinators in the Anthropocene, there is a pressing need to provide simulation tools that can inform best practices for wildflower plantings in agro-ecosystems. We developed a spatially implicit ordinary differential equations (ODEs) model specifically designed to determine the optimal wildflower-to-crop ratio as a function of wildflower patch (i) attractiveness, (ii) nutritional benefits, and (iii) blooming period relative to the crop. The model represents the population dynamics of a bumble bee colony and floral resources (crop and wildflower) in the landscape and nest during one harvesting season. We conduct a full factorial simulation experiment to identify the optimal characteristics of the wildflower patch (i.e., blooming period, attractiveness, relative abundance) that maximise crop yield via the enhancement of the number of bees pollinating crop flowers in a fictional blueberry farm. Our results suggest that providing highly attractive and nutritive wildflower resources before and not during the crop blooming season is the most beneficial strategy. When both flower types are in competition, pollination services can decrease, either when wildflowers are too attractive, or if they provide less benefits to the bees than the crop due to a trade-off between resources quality versus quantity.

[Journal of Mathematical Biology, 2 February 2024]

The evolution of mutualism between host and symbiont communities plays an essential role in maintaining ecosystem function and should therefore have a profound effect on their range expansion dynamics. In particular, the presence of mutualistic symbionts at the leading edge of a host-symbiont community should enhance its propagation in space. We develop a theoretical framework that captures the eco-evolutionary dynamics of host-symbiont communities, to investigate how the evolution of resource exchange may shape community structure during range expansion. We consider a community with symbionts that are mutualistic or parasitic to various degrees, where parasitic symbionts receive the same amount of resource from the host as mutualistic symbionts, but at a lower cost. The selective advantage of parasitic symbionts over mutualistic ones is increased with resource availability (i.e. with host density), promoting mutualism at the range edges, where host density is low, and parasitism at the population core, where host density is higher. This spatial selection also influences the speed of spread. We find that the host growth rate (which depends on the average benefit provided by the symbionts) is maximal at the range edges, where symbionts are more mutualistic, and that host-symbiont communities with high symbiont density at their core (e.g. resulting from more mutualistic hosts) spread faster into new territories. These results indicate that the expansion of host-symbiont communities is pulled by the hosts but pushed by the symbionts, in a unique push-pull dynamic where both the host and symbionts are active and tightly-linked players.