CitationsAdd new citationList by: CiterankMap Link[1] Disease transmission and mass gatherings: a case study on meningococcal infection during Hajj
Author: Laurent Coudeville, Amine Amiche, Ashrafur Rahman, Julien Arino, Biao Tang, Ombeline Jollivet, Alp Dogu, Edward Thommes, Jianhong Wu Publication date: 22 March 2022 Publication info: BMC Infectious Diseases, Volume 22, Article number: 275 (2022) Cited by: David Price 10:22 PM 29 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (5) 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 701037MfPH – Publications144B5ACA0, 703963Mobility859FDEF6, 715419Edward Thommes Edward W. Thommes is an Adjunct Professor of Mathematics at the University of Guelph and at York University. He is a Global Modeling Lead in the Modeling, Epidemiology and Data Science (MEDS) team of Sanofi Vaccines, an Affiliate Researcher in the Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation (WICI), and a member of the Strategic Advisory Committee for the Mathematics for Public Health program at the Fields Institute.10019D3ABAB URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-022-07234-4
| Excerpt / Summary [BMC Infectious Diseases, 22 March 2022]
Background: Mass gatherings can not only trigger major outbreaks on-site but also facilitate global spread of infectious pathogens. Hajj is one of the largest mass gathering events worldwide where over two million pilgrims from all over the world gather annually creating intense congestion.
Methods: We developed a meta-population model to represent the transmission dynamics of Neisseria meningitidis and the impact of Hajj pilgrimage on the risk of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) for pilgrims population, local population at the Hajj site and country of origin of Hajj pilgrims. This model was calibrated using data on IMD over 17 years (1995–2011) and further used to simulate potential changes in vaccine policy and endemic conditions.
Results: The effect of increased density of contacts during Hajj was estimated to generate a 78-fold increase in disease transmission that impacts not only pilgrims but also the local population. Quadrivalent ACWY vaccination was found to be very effective in reducing the risk of outbreak during Hajj. Hajj has more limited impact on IMD transmission and exportation in the pilgrim countries of origin, although not negligible given the size of the population considered.
Conclusion: The analysis performed highlighted the amplifying effect of mass gathering on N. meningitidis transmission and confirm vaccination as a very effective preventive measure to mitigate outbreak risks. |
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