231025 James Watmough
Reproduction numbers and final size relations for disease-transmission models.

Speaker: James Watmough, University of New Brunswick

Date and Time: Wednesday, October 25, 2023 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm


The early disease transmission model of Kermack and McKendrick established two main results that are still at the core of most disease transmission models today: the basic reproduction number as a threshold for disease spread in a population; and the final size of an epidemic.

As models become more complex, the relationship between disease spread, final size and Ro are not as clear. In this talk I will review the notions of the next generation matrix, reproduction number, and final size for the simple epidemic model and discuss their extension to more complex models.

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231025 James Watmough
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