240118 Quantifying the basic reproduction number of mpox cases
Seminar 16: Quantifying the basic reproduction number and the under-estimated fraction of mpox cases around the world at the onset of the outbreak: a mathematical modelling and machine learning-based study. Speaker: Dr. Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima, 18 January 2024.


  • The current global outbreak of mpox, which started in April 2022 has different epidemiological and clinical features compared to previous mpox outbreaks. Sexual contact has been hypothesized as the major transmission route for the disease in this outbreak, with the community of men having sex with men (MSM) disproportionately and dramatically affected. To better understand the transmission dynamics of the disease, it is essential to understand its dynamics during the early stages of the outbreak.
  • In this article, we estimate the basic reproduction number and the ascertainment fraction of the reported cases of mpox around the world. We divide the population of each country into two groups (high- risk and low-risk groups) and consider two routes of transmission: sexual and non- sexual.
  • Our estimate of the basic reproduction number of mpox in the considered countries ranges between 1.37 (Canada) and 3.68 (Germany). Furthermore, our estimates of the ascertainment fraction for the reported cases of mpox show a large variation in the under-reporting of cases in the high-risk population around the world with ascertainment fractions between 0.25 and 0.93, and a more consistent ascertainment fraction for the low-risk population, which ranges from 0.65 to 0.85.
  • The ratio between the total estimated and observed cases yielded the highest values for Colombia (3.60), followed by Chile (2.57) and Mexico (2.16), whilst the lowest value was obtained for Canada (1.08). Its median value was 1.8.
  • Our estimates can help public health decision- and policymakers better understand the mpox outbreak, in terms of how many underestimated cases can occur in several countries, and how the epidemic can spread differently.
Networks »Networks
OMNI – Training »OMNI – Training
OMNI-RÉUNIS Super Spreader Seminar Series (SSSS) »OMNI-RÉUNIS Super Spreader Seminar Series (SSSS)
240118 Quantifying the basic reproduction number of mpox cases
Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima »Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima
mpox »mpox
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