|
OSN – Publications Document1 #701071
| |
+Citations (10) - CitationsAdd new citationList by: CiterankMapLink[1] Quantifying the economic impacts of COVID-19 policy responses in (almost) real time
Author: Christopher Cotton, Bahman Kashi, Huw Lloyd-Ellis, Frederic Tremblay, Brett Crowley Publication date: 22 February 2022 Publication info: Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, Volume 55, Issue S1 p. 406-445 Cited by: David Price 10:27 AM 18 September 2022 GMT Citerank: (2) 701065OSN – Conceptual ApproachThe Network promises to build on the work done by the Royal Society of Canada (RSC) Task Force on COVID-19, Limestone Analytics, the Looking Glass Supercluster project, and the COVID Strategic Choices Group, to use an inter-sectoral approach to policy development and pandemic response.609FDDBE, 714608Charting a FutureCharting a Future for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling in Canada – April 2023 [1] 2794CAE1 URL: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12567
| Excerpt / Summary We develop a methodology to track and quantify the economic impacts of lockdown and reopening policies by Canadian provinces in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, using data that is available with a relatively short time lag. To do so, we adapt, calibrate and implement a dynamic, seasonally adjusted, input–output model with supply constraints. Our framework allows us to quantify potential scenarios that allow for dynamic complementarities between industries, seasonal fluctuations and changes in demand composition. Taking account of the observed variation in reopening strategies across provinces, we estimate the costs of the policy response in terms of lost hours of employment and production. Among other results, we show how a more aggressive response, even though it imposes higher economic costs in the short run, can lead to lower economic costs in the long run if it means avoiding future waves of lockdowns. |
Link[2] Building the Canadian Shield: A New Strategy to Protect Canadians from COVID and from the Fight Against COVID
Author: Agnew, M., Ayinde, T., Beaulieu, A., Colijn, C., Cotton, C., Crowe, M., Dhalla, I., Ferbey, J., Greenhill, R., Haggart, B., House, B., Imgrund, R., Jebwab, J., Khangura, J., Kwong, J., McCabe, C., Morris, A., Soucy, J.P. R., Tuite. A. Publication date: 30 December 2020 Publication info: Global Canada, COVID Strategy Choices Group. Cited by: David Price 10:34 AM 18 September 2022 GMT URL:
| Excerpt / Summary Determined action over the next few weeks could save 5,000 lives, create 320,000 jobs, and generate $37 B of economic growth in 2021 compared to Canada’s present, failing COVID mitigation strategy.
By seizing the moment, Canada’s leaders could:
● Reduce new cases by 75% by the end of January ● Maintain steady new COVID case declines from February through April ● Achieve fewer than 40 new COVID cases per day across Canada by May 1 ● Allow a fuller opening of Canada’s economy and society throughout the summer ● Sustain near-zero COVID levels until widespread vaccination makes this plague a memory.
We call this approach Building the Canadian Shield: it is designed to shield Canadians and our economy from both COVID and the unintended consequences of the fight against COVID.
For decision-makers, there are 3 key actions:
1. Sustain an effective lockdown until COVID cases are low enough that testing, tracing and isolation can work effectively.
2. Relax restrictions only to the extent that new COVID cases continue a steady decline of 17% - 25% per week. In the fight against COVID, if you are not winning (i.e., new cases are not going steadily down) you are losing. Any new increases will likely lead to a 3rd set of lockdowns in the spring.
3. Proactively assist the individuals, businesses and communities most affected by these policies. |
Link[8] Emerging from Crisis: Applying Scenario Planning in Malawi
Author: Cecilia Brady, Christopher S. Cotton, Brett Crowley, Shannon Davis, Catriona Farquharson, Bahman Kashi, Huw Lloyd-Ellis, Frederic Tremblay Publication date: December 2020 Publication info: Limestone Analytics and JDI Policy Paper 20-1201 Cited by: David Price 12:26 PM 18 September 2022 GMT URL:
| Excerpt / Summary We apply qualitative scenario planning methods to identify areas of political, economic, and societal uncertainty among firms, organizations, and policymakers in Malawi. This analysis is then combined with quantitative economic projections to describe alternative scenarios that may arise over the next five years. By clearly describing a range of credible scenarios, the report provides a reference for stakeholders as they formulate government, business, or organizational |
Link[10] Charting a future for emerging infectious disease modelling in Canada
Author: Mark A. Lewis, Patrick Brown, Caroline Colijn, Laura Cowen, Christopher Cotton, Troy Day, Rob Deardon, David Earn, Deirdre Haskell, Jane Heffernan, Patrick Leighton, Kumar Murty, Sarah Otto, Ellen Rafferty, Carolyn Hughes Tuohy, Jianhong Wu, Huaiping Zhu Publication date: 26 April 2023 Cited by: David Price 2:30 PM 19 November 2023 GMT Citerank: (6) 679703EIDM?The Emerging Infectious Diseases Modelling Initiative (EIDM) – by the Public Health Agency of Canada and NSERC – aims to establish multi-disciplinary network(s) of specialists across the country in modelling infectious diseases to be applied to public needs associated with emerging infectious diseases and pandemics such as COVID-19. [1]7F1CEB7, 701020CANMOD – PublicationsPublications by CANMOD Members144B5ACA0, 701037MfPH – Publications144B5ACA0, 701222OMNI – Publications144B5ACA0, 714608Charting a FutureCharting a Future for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling in Canada – April 2023 [1] 2794CAE1, 715387SMMEID – Publications144B5ACA0 URL:
| Excerpt / Summary We propose an independent institute of emerging infectious disease modellers and policy experts, with an academic core, capable of renewing itself as needed. This institute will combine science and knowledge translation to inform decision-makers at all levels of government and ensure the highest level of preparedness (and readiness) for the next public health emergency. The Public Health Modelling Institute will provide cost-effective, science-based modelling for public policymakers in an easily visualizable, integrated framework, which can respond in an agile manner to changing needs, questions, and data. To be effective, the Institute must link to modelling groups within government, who are best able to pose questions and convey results for use by public policymakers. |
|
|