We develop a methodology to track and quantify the economic impacts of lockdown and reopening policies by Canadian provinces in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, using data that is available with a relatively short time lag. To do so, we adapt, calibrate and implement a dynamic, seasonally adjusted, input–output model with supply constraints. Our framework allows us to quantify potential scenarios that allow for dynamic complementarities between industries, seasonal fluctuations and changes in demand composition. Taking account of the observed variation in reopening strategies across provinces, we estimate the costs of the policy response in terms of lost hours of employment and production. Among other results, we show how a more aggressive response, even though it imposes higher economic costs in the short run, can lead to lower economic costs in the long run if it means avoiding future waves of lockdowns.

Determined action over the next few weeks could save 5,000 lives, create 320,000 jobs, and generate $37 B of economic growth in 2021 compared to Canada’s present, failing COVID mitigation strategy.

By seizing the moment, Canada’s leaders could:

● Reduce new cases by 75% by the end of January
● Maintain steady new COVID case declines from February through April
● Achieve fewer than 40 new COVID cases per day across Canada by May 1
● Allow a fuller opening of Canada’s economy and society throughout the summer
● Sustain near-zero COVID levels until widespread vaccination makes this plague a memory.

We call this approach Building the Canadian Shield: it is designed to shield Canadians and our economy from both COVID and the unintended consequences of the fight against COVID.

For decision-makers, there are 3 key actions:

1. Sustain an effective lockdown until COVID cases are low enough that testing, tracing and isolation can work effectively.

2. Relax restrictions only to the extent that new COVID cases continue a steady decline of 17% - 25% per week. In the fight against COVID, if you are not winning (i.e., new cases are not going steadily down) you are losing. Any new increases will likely lead to a 3rd set of lockdowns in the spring.

3. Proactively assist the individuals, businesses and communities most affected by these policies.

We apply the methodology developed in Cotton et al (2021) to compare the economic outcomes under alternative COVID-19 mitigation and recovery strategies under consideration by policymakers and public health officials in Canada. This includes updating previous economic cost projections to consider new data and the possibility of delayed policy and vaccine response. We estimate that a one month delay in Canada’s vaccination rollout will cost the Canadian economy between $7 and $16 billion.

We apply the methodology developed in Cotton et al (2021) to compare the economic outcomes under alternative COVID-19 stimulus spending policies in Malawi.

We apply the methodology developed in Cotton et al (2021) to compare the economic outcomes under alternative COVID-19 mitigation and recovery strategies under consideration by policymakers and public health officials in Canada. This includes updating previous economic cost projections to consider the possibility that new variants of the disease will necessitate stricter lockdown measures in Spring 2021.

We apply the methodology developed in Cotton et al (2021) to compare the economic outcomes under alternative COVID-19 mitigation and recovery strategies under consideration by policymakers and public health officials in Canada. This includes an analysis of the “Canadian Shield” proposal in which preemptive strict lockdowns are implemented, which increase economic costs in the short run but enable the economy to more-fully reopen sooner and avoid further lockdowns in summer 2021. This policy paper applies an updated methodology and provides a detailed analysis for the Province of Ontario.

We apply the methodology developed in Cotton et al (2021) to compare the economic outcomes under alternative COVID-19 mitigation and recovery strategies under consideration by policymakers and public health officials in Canada. This includes an analysis of the “Canadian Shield” proposal in which preemptive strict lockdowns are implemented, which increase economic costs in the short run but enable the economy to more-fully reopen sooner and avoid further lockdowns in summer 2021.

We apply qualitative scenario planning methods to identify areas of political, economic, and societal uncertainty among firms, organizations, and policymakers in Malawi. This analysis is then combined with quantitative economic projections to describe alternative scenarios that may arise over the next five years. By clearly describing a range of credible scenarios, the report provides a reference for stakeholders as they formulate government, business, or organizational

Motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Economic Impact Explorer was developed to enable communities to understand the impact of economic shocks and policy changes on labour and production outcomes. The insights presented in the tool are generated using Limestone’s Short-Term Under-capacity Dynamic Input-Output model (STUDIO).

We propose an independent institute of emerging infectious disease modellers and policy experts, with an academic core, capable of renewing itself as needed. This institute will combine science and knowledge translation to inform decision-makers at all levels of government and ensure the highest level of preparedness (and readiness) for the next public health emergency. The Public Health Modelling Institute will provide cost-effective, science-based modelling for public policymakers in an easily visualizable, integrated framework, which can respond in an agile manner to changing needs, questions, and data. To be effective, the Institute must link to modelling groups within government, who are best able to pose questions and convey results for use by public policymakers.