Strategic Automatic Discovery System (STRADS)
Colleen M. Oresky, Douglas B. Lenat, Albert Clarkson, Stephen H. Kaisler
Advances in Simulation Volume 4, 1991, pp 223-260

The paper is online here. (some difficulties with download observed)

Abstract:
Today, intelligence analysts spend most of their time determining the significance and implications of each new event as it occurs: in short, “strategists” still are largely reacting creatures. Few tools have been developed to assist in exploring contingencies. This chapter describes the Strategic Automatic Discovery System (STRADS) which uses knowledge-based simulation to generate scenarios (plausible long chains of actions-reactions) of world actors responding to given events.
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