Speaker: Tanya Philippsen, University of Victoria

Date and Time: Wednesday, February 28, 2024 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Abstract

We consider the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic between March 2020 to February 2021 in three Canadian regions: Greater Vancouver, Greater Toronto, and Calgary. This period was dominated by the wild-type strain of SARS-CoV-2 and occurred prior to widespread vaccination roll-out. To assess the effectiveness of age-specific control measures on viral transmission, we construct a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) deterministic model with two age groups: youth (0-19 years), and adults (20+ years). We fit this model to SARS-CoV-2 case data over sequential time frames that capture the changes in public health control measures in each region. The age-specific control parameters of the fitted model are then adjusted to simulate alternative policy scenarios and assess their relative potential effectiveness in reducing the Fall/Winter epidemic peaks