We develop a methodology to track and quantify the economic impacts of lockdown and reopening policies by Canadian provinces in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, using data that is available with a relatively short time lag. To do so, we adapt, calibrate and implement a dynamic, seasonally adjusted, input–output model with supply constraints. Our framework allows us to quantify potential scenarios that allow for dynamic complementarities between industries, seasonal fluctuations and changes in demand composition. Taking account of the observed variation in reopening strategies across provinces, we estimate the costs of the policy response in terms of lost hours of employment and production. Among other results, we show how a more aggressive response, even though it imposes higher economic costs in the short run, can lead to lower economic costs in the long run if it means avoiding future waves of lockdowns.

Determined action over the next few weeks could save 5,000 lives, create 320,000 jobs, and generate $37 B of economic growth in 2021 compared to Canada’s present, failing COVID mitigation strategy.

By seizing the moment, Canada’s leaders could:

● Reduce new cases by 75% by the end of January
● Maintain steady new COVID case declines from February through April
● Achieve fewer than 40 new COVID cases per day across Canada by May 1
● Allow a fuller opening of Canada’s economy and society throughout the summer
● Sustain near-zero COVID levels until widespread vaccination makes this plague a memory.

We call this approach Building the Canadian Shield: it is designed to shield Canadians and our economy from both COVID and the unintended consequences of the fight against COVID.

For decision-makers, there are 3 key actions:

1. Sustain an effective lockdown until COVID cases are low enough that testing, tracing and isolation can work effectively.

2. Relax restrictions only to the extent that new COVID cases continue a steady decline of 17% - 25% per week. In the fight against COVID, if you are not winning (i.e., new cases are not going steadily down) you are losing. Any new increases will likely lead to a 3rd set of lockdowns in the spring.

3. Proactively assist the individuals, businesses and communities most affected by these policies.

We apply the methodology developed in Cotton et al (2021) to compare the economic outcomes under alternative COVID-19 mitigation and recovery strategies under consideration by policymakers and public health officials in Canada. This includes updating previous economic cost projections to consider new data and the possibility of delayed policy and vaccine response. We estimate that a one month delay in Canada’s vaccination rollout will cost the Canadian economy between $7 and $16 billion.

We apply the methodology developed in Cotton et al (2021) to compare the economic outcomes under alternative COVID-19 stimulus spending policies in Malawi.

We apply the methodology developed in Cotton et al (2021) to compare the economic outcomes under alternative COVID-19 mitigation and recovery strategies under consideration by policymakers and public health officials in Canada. This includes updating previous economic cost projections to consider the possibility that new variants of the disease will necessitate stricter lockdown measures in Spring 2021.

We apply the methodology developed in Cotton et al (2021) to compare the economic outcomes under alternative COVID-19 mitigation and recovery strategies under consideration by policymakers and public health officials in Canada. This includes an analysis of the “Canadian Shield” proposal in which preemptive strict lockdowns are implemented, which increase economic costs in the short run but enable the economy to more-fully reopen sooner and avoid further lockdowns in summer 2021. This policy paper applies an updated methodology and provides a detailed analysis for the Province of Ontario.

We apply the methodology developed in Cotton et al (2021) to compare the economic outcomes under alternative COVID-19 mitigation and recovery strategies under consideration by policymakers and public health officials in Canada. This includes an analysis of the “Canadian Shield” proposal in which preemptive strict lockdowns are implemented, which increase economic costs in the short run but enable the economy to more-fully reopen sooner and avoid further lockdowns in summer 2021.

We apply qualitative scenario planning methods to identify areas of political, economic, and societal uncertainty among firms, organizations, and policymakers in Malawi. This analysis is then combined with quantitative economic projections to describe alternative scenarios that may arise over the next five years. By clearly describing a range of credible scenarios, the report provides a reference for stakeholders as they formulate government, business, or organizational

Motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Economic Impact Explorer was developed to enable communities to understand the impact of economic shocks and policy changes on labour and production outcomes. The insights presented in the tool are generated using Limestone’s Short-Term Under-capacity Dynamic Input-Output model (STUDIO).

Citerank: (22) 679703EIDM?The Emerging Infectious Diseases Modelling Initiative (EIDM) – by the Public Health Agency of Canada and NSERC – aims to establish multi-disciplinary network(s) of specialists across the country in modelling infectious diseases to be applied to public needs associated with emerging infectious diseases and pandemics such as COVID-19. [1]7F1CEB7, 679761Caroline ColijnDr. Caroline Colijn works at the interface of mathematics, evolution, infection and public health, and leads the MAGPIE research group. She joined SFU's Mathematics Department in 2018 as a Canada 150 Research Chair in Mathematics for Infection, Evolution and Public Health. She has broad interests in applications of mathematics to questions in evolution and public health, and was a founding member of Imperial College London's Centre for the Mathematics of Precision Healthcare.10019D3ABAB, 679769Christopher CottonChristopher Cotton is a Professor of Economics at Queen’s University where he holds the Jarislowsky-Deutsch Chair in Economic & Financial Policy.10019D3ABAB, 679776David EarnProfessor of Mathematics and Faculty of Science Research Chair in Mathematical Epidemiology at McMaster University.10019D3ABAB, 679797Huaiping ZhuProfessor of mathematics at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at York University, a York Research Chair (YRC Tier I) in Applied Mathematics, the Director of the Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems at the York University (LAMPS), the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modelling (CCDM) and the Director of the One Health Modelling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI-RÉUNIS). 10019D3ABAB, 679806Jane HeffernanJane Heffernan is a professor of infectious disease modelling in the Mathematics & Statistics Department at York University. She is a co-director of the Canadian Centre for Disease Modelling, and she leads national and international networks in mathematical immunology and the modelling of waning and boosting immunity.10019D3ABAB, 679812Jianhong WuProfessor Jianhong Wu is a University Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Canada Research Chair in industrial and applied mathematics at York University. He is also the NSERC Industrial Research Chair in vaccine mathematics, modelling, and manufacturing. 10019D3ABAB, 679826Laura CowenAssociate Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Victoria.10019D3ABAB, 679842Mark LewisProfessor Mark Lewis, Kennedy Chair in Mathematical Biology at the University of Victoria and Emeritus Professor at the University of Alberta.10019D3ABAB, 679858Patrick BrownAssociate Professor in the Centre for Global Health Research at St. Michael’s Hospital, and in the Department of Statistical Sciences at the University of Toronto.10019D3ABAB, 679859Patrick LeightonPatrick Leighton is a Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health at the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Montreal, and an active member of the Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health Research Group (GREZOSP) and the Centre for Public Health Research (CReSP). 10019D3ABAB, 679869Rob DeardonAssociate Professor in the Department of Production Animal Health in the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics in the Faculty of Science at the University of Calgary.10019D3ABAB, 679875Sarah OttoProfessor in Zoology. Theoretical biologist, Canada Research Chair in Theoretical and Experimental Evolution, and Killam Professor at the University of British Columbia.10019D3ABAB, 679890Troy DayTroy Day is a Professor and the Associate Head of the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Queen’s University. He is an applied mathematician whose research focuses on dynamical systems, optimization, and game theory, applied to models of infectious disease dynamics and evolutionary biology.10019D3ABAB, 679893Kumar MurtyProfessor Kumar Murty is in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Toronto. His research fields are Analytic Number Theory, Algebraic Number Theory, Arithmetic Algebraic Geometry and Information Security. He is the founder of the GANITA lab, co-founder of Prata Technologies and PerfectCloud. His interest in mathematics ranges from the pure study of the subject to its applications in data and information security.10019D3ABAB, 686724Ellen RaffertyDr. Ellen Rafferty has a Master of Public Health and a PhD in epidemiology and health economics from the University of Saskatchewan. Dr. Rafferty’s research focuses on the epidemiologic and economic impact of public health policies, such as estimating the cost-effectiveness of immunization programs. She is interested in the incorporation of economics into immunization decision-making, and to that aim has worked with a variety of provincial and national organizations.10019D3ABAB, 701020CANMOD – PublicationsPublications by CANMOD Members144B5ACA0, 701037MfPH – Publications144B5ACA0, 701222OMNI – Publications144B5ACA0, 704045Covid-19859FDEF6, 714608Charting a FutureCharting a Future for Emerging Infectious Disease Modelling in Canada – April 2023 [1] 2794CAE1, 715387SMMEID – Publications144B5ACA0

We propose an independent institute of emerging infectious disease modellers and policy experts, with an academic core, capable of renewing itself as needed. This institute will combine science and knowledge translation to inform decision-makers at all levels of government and ensure the highest level of preparedness (and readiness) for the next public health emergency. The Public Health Modelling Institute will provide cost-effective, science-based modelling for public policymakers in an easily visualizable, integrated framework, which can respond in an agile manner to changing needs, questions, and data. To be effective, the Institute must link to modelling groups within government, who are best able to pose questions and convey results for use by public policymakers.