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Risks & future scenarios Stop reasoning in terms of probabilized risk, but in terms of possibility. http://villagillet.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/dupuy-mourning-the-future.pdf Natural risks monitoring Tectonic, seismic & volcanic activity http://www.iris.edu/seismon/ ) http://cires.colorado.edu/~bilham/UrbanEarthquakesGlobal.html and web.worldbank.org and www.ouramazingplanet.com Magnetic pole reversal tied to tectonics http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal and magnetic_pole_shift_forces_runway_closure_at_florida_airport/ and pbs.org link and Nasa link and AGU link Solar storms causing disturbances in telecoms and transports http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/ Pandemic outbreaks http://pandemic.avianbirdsflu.com/article.aspx?pageId=97 Resources shortage Water: Drying up and depletion of resources, pollution – water more expensive than oil in 5-10 yrs http://ag.arizona.edu/AZWATER/awr/dec99/Feature2.htm and Foreign Policy in Focus article Frameworks: See the 37 ‘global risks’ of The World Economic Forum. http://riskreport.weforum.org/#data-explorer-barometers International futures forum world model http://www.internationalfuturesforum.com/iff_world_model.php Other Risk & scenario resources Disaster Risk Management initiative by UNESCAP http://www.unescap.org/about/index.asp works on regional challenges Systems visualization is of the core dilemma of today, interconnectedness of world problems. http://bit.ly/fl1eRR Finite Planet vs Unlimited Growth, showing developed by Fritjof Capra, based on Plan B 3.0, by Lester Brown. http://www.earth-policy.org/images/uploads/capra_pb3.ppt . Context for the model: http://www.earth-policy.org , book by Lester Brown: http://www.earth-policy.org/images/uploads/book_files/wotebook.pdf re insights from Fritjof Capra and Lester Brown to get a more holistic perspective http://www.ecoliteracy.org/essays/new-facts-life Alvin Toffler predictions: Alvin Toffler and the Toffler foundation. 40 for the next 40 link from the Future Scenario forum.. Other scenarios: http://www.chforum.org/scenario2009/scenarios_final.shtml Survival: manual, and other materials http://www.chrismartenson.com/ Emergency food: http://www.ineed2prepare.com/ General Sustainability Resources Calls to action & positive examples and directions – results/status Almost 20 years ago, the call to action of a teenager at the UN Earth Summit in Rio http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZsDliXzyAY Wake-up call for CEO’s: “Companies Can’t Be Parasites Anymore… the global financial crisis created a sense of evil in corporations and that evil has diffused to the regular company. It’s not just financial services anymore…” a video by Leadership consultant Stephen Miles to pass around… http://bigthink.com/ideas/26761 Investing in sustainability: An interview with Al Gore and David Blood in the McKinsey Quarterly Capitalism for the Long Term http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/special_topics.aspx?stid=106&srid=17 Article by McKinsey’s Dominic Barton on Capitalism for the Long Term in next HBR issue: http://hbr.org/2011/03/capitalism-for-the-long-term/ar/1 A series of 2010 documents from the World Economic Forum with a wide recognition that things must change: 1.Redesigning Business Value: A Roadmap for Sustainable Consumption http://bit.ly/f2E7n4 & http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_ConsumptionDilemma_SustainableGrowth_Report_2011.pdf 2. Report of the Global Redesign Initiative – http://bit.ly/dPbu7J In particular, look from p.46 on at the values framework. Science for Environment Policy, DG ENV News Alert, 16 September 2010, Issue 209. Universita di catalona IMF research conference videos of March 2011 on “Macro and Growth Policies in the Wake of the Crisis” addressing systemic issues the world is facing globally. I have started to watch the growth strategy session V. Lots of the topics we have been talking about are addressed here: development, agriculture, urbanization, population, complex adaptive systems, consumption models etc… http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/res/index.htm Mitsubishi’s CEO 15 yrs ago, lesson of the rain forest: http://combusem.com/TACHI.HTM . Future 500, whose mission is to forward relationships between corporations and NGOs to advance the triple bottom line, of which Tach Kiushi is the chairman of the international board. Seems his ideas have made their way… http://www.future500.org/who/ In this respect the “The Ecology of Commerce: A Declaration of Sustainability” by Paul Hawken. “Earth Democracy: Justice, Sustainability, and Peace” by Vandana Shiva Three reports on progress of sustainability: http://sustainabilityadvantage.com Sustainability leaders ranking Globalscan: http://tinyurl.com/3apy2ju Creating Shared Value at Nestlé http://tinyurl.com/5vozx59 . Alternative viewpoint on Nestlé: http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2010/03/campaign_launched_against_nest.html Good example of Semco Brazil Example Unilever: http://www.unilever.com/sustainability/ Axion Polymers’ recycled fridge plastic makes ‘cool’ pencils http://tinyurl.com/4kxvrcu Virgin’s green fund: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/10/business/energy-environment/10virgin.html Branson’s Climate Change Challenge: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/10/business/energy-environment/10virgin.html There’s a 7-step process outlined – on the sustainability journey: http://www.interfaceglobal.com/Sustainability/Our-Journey/7-Fronts-of-Sustainability.aspx And a deep ecology framework – called ‘interface model’ – that I have not seen worked out as clearly in any other business. http://www.interfaceglobal.com/Sustainability/Our-Journey/Interface-Model.aspx The Interface Model and its internal philosophy – in Anderson’s interview here: http://www.interfaceglobal.com/getdoc/a7aa467e-801d-44c0-aa41-6b410ef1881e/Interface_Sustainable_Model.aspx His first book and one from his recommended reading list at http://www.interfaceglobal.com/Company/Leadership-Team/Ray-Watch/Read-Ray.aspx Dawna’s evolutionary imperatives for businesses: http://www.noetic.org/noetic/issue-two-september/the-evolutionary-imperative-for-business/ Helene’s Responsible leadership now: Getting Fit for tomorrow Helene’s article on the insanity of the finacial markey: There is a huge amount of money around that most of the time does not know where to get invested (trying to find the ‘best’ deal -not to say that money can “think” and act ) which contributes to instability because everyone goes after the same bubble at the same time, and pulls the plug at the same time, and there is a huge amount of needs to be fulfilled. Helene’s article on the subject http://bit.ly/gZT28R in 2005… and another one last month http://bit.ly/hkaNK7 . Thorbjoern’s Abbé Boulah blog: http://abbeboulah.wordpress.com/2010/11/ Possible Solutions Resources Systemic flow-analysis based systemic response approach, macro-level systemic commitments-view needed to the macro-level through-life innovation-funnel http://bit.ly/ekoBGf (Eero) Ilia’s positive consequences of consumerism at http://linkd.in/e5WCUW Ilia’s proposal for a leverage point: beyond blaming “capitalism”, http://bit.ly/dPEoZD : an active new ideas broker Sergeev: the thermodynamic approach to markets http://bit.ly/fmVmy5 Application of an Economic Model for Survival (via sustainability dimensions) to an organisational level framework. Sustainable Organisational Productivity: http://www.slideshare.net/davidalman/sustainable- productivity David Altman’s webste: http://proventivesolutions.com.au/Publications.html UNEP Green Economy Report from UN based on dynamic systems modeling http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/v2/GreenEconomyReport/tabid/29846/Default.aspx UN Global compact initiative / global compact lead 54 corporations: http://www.unglobalcompact.org/ The UN blueprint for corporate leadership: http://www.unglobalcompact.org/docs/issues_doc/lead/BluePrint_EN.pdf The prerelease of the Green Economy Report from UN http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/v2/GreenEconomyReport/tabid/29846/Default.aspx UN-sponsored report on the creative economy: http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/ditc20082cer_en.pdf The New Economic Forum model semi finalist of the Buckminster fuller challenge: http://challenge.bfi.org/2011Semi_Finalist_ANewEconomicModel Senge’s Natural Capitalism Solutions: use resources productively, redesign industrial processes for craddle to craddle, manage institutions to restore human & natural capital Hunter Lovins, president of ‘Natural Capitalism Solutions’ and co-author of “Climate Capitalism” Convincing Even the Skeptics to Go Green http://tinyurl.com/6fprpbr Nicholas Georgescu Roegen: energy and economy myths. 2nd law of thermodynamics applied to economics http://dieoff.org/page148.htm Crowdsourced open innovation platforms such as Connect + develop launched by Procter & Gamble: http://bit.ly/h3b2l5 James Surowiecki’s “Wisdom of the Crowds”. http://changents.com/ could be looked at for the “agency” part of things Crowdsourcing CSR: http://www.triplepundit.com/2011/02/crowdsource-csr/ Swarm of empowered action/interaction: http://coalitionofthewilling.org.uk/read-the-script/ Gaming used for the best: http://www.amazon.com/Reality-Broken-Games-Better-Change/dp/1594202850 -look at video and review Business as a re-enlivening rather than a value-absorbing force… http://www.carolsanford.com/blog/?p=551 Interview of Umair Haque: http://blogs.hbr.org/video/2011/02/a-better-path-to-prosperity.html Applying systems thinking to building an economic model, analysis [by David Stroh] http://www.appliedsystemsthinking.com/supporting_documents/FinlCrisis.pdf Gapminder for data comparisons http://www.gapminder.org/ “Corporate Sustainability Strategies: Social and Environmental Responsibility for Sustained Economic/Financial Prosperity” Fairleigh Dickinson University http://www.fdu-harmon.com/EXEC%206651%20fall08/CorpSustainability.ppt Sustainable approaches & modeling http://www.naturalstep.org/http://www.sustainer.org Systems approach & diagrams GANE: A General Agreement on a New Economy For Full Employment, Equity and Environmental Sustainability, Summary of Working Paper” http://www.greenecon.org/gane/doc_views/summary_doc.html Computing for Sustainability – Saving the earth one byte at a time http://computingforsustainability.wordpress.com/2010/03/24/thirty-more-sustainability-diagrams/ Sustainable value – value based approach to measure sustainable performance Figgs: http://www.smia.info/files/eh93vmpa.f1_fr-1240.pdf valuable ST tools and sustainability insights http://www.solonline.org/repository/ 2010 release of ISO 26000, Social Responsibility (http://bit.ly/brQ33P ) , may be the most timely document in support of economic survival. But more than a compliance approach is needed. Plus, if not well implemented such ISO Standards can become a “dead hand” suffocating productivity improvement, workforce initiatives, collaboration, in “red tape” and increasing costs. See Doc: four steps to see sustainability as a strategic asset: http://antonbreman.wordpress.com/2010/10/04/four-steps-to-see-sustainability-as-a-strategic-asset/ Asian productivity organization: http://www.apo-tokyo.org/publications.htm The sustainability journey: beyond compliance Leading & Learning for Sustainability with Peter Senge (Maturity Model) http://www.solonline.org/repository/download/willard.jpg?item_id=20741155 “The Designers Accord Sustainability in 7 video series delivers a daily dose of design inspiration by today’s leading sustainability experts. Join in the conversation as they share 7 things every designer should consider when integrating sustainability into design practice.” http://tinyurl.com/45xtee8 Overcoming the Seven Sustainability Blunders http://www.pegasuscom.com/levpoints/7blunders.html Changing a system through network: build adaptive & emergent http://www.slideshare.net/monitorinstitute/transformer-how-to-build-a-network-to-change-a-system-a-case-study-of-the-reamp-energy-network The distinction between Old Economics and New Economics (Maximising economic & business efficiency to balancing efficiency with resilience) explained here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNAL_nB4Gak&feature=related Sustainability and Externalizing Costs John Fullerton gives his perspective here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pj0WRGZBX6M&feature=related More on the ‘externalities’ conversation is on http://www.embeddedsustainability.com with a two part interview with Chris Laszlo on http://www.management-issues.com/2011/3/22/podcast/the-competitive-advantage-of–sustainability.asp Lester Brown World on the edge book preventing environmental & economic collapse https://www.earth-policy.org/books/wote/wotech13 De-couple ‘economic growth’ – and its environmental impact – from the idea of ‘prosperity.’ Tim Jackson, Professor of Sustainable Development at the University of Surrey, has some great insights: http://fora.tv/2010/06/09/Tim_Jackson_Prosperity_Without_Growth UNEP decoupling growth: http://www.unep.org/resourcepanel/Publications/Decoupling/tabid/56048/Default.aspx Paradox and irrationality of growth: http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/4120–Growth-can-t-go-on- Sustainable de-growth – one such idea – is defined as a conscious transition to a smaller economy with less production and consumption. http://tinyurl.com/4q9gxr2 Restoration economy: Rewealth http://rewealth.com/Documents/Rewealth-Front_Matter.pdf Grace Lee Boggs book, on “sustainable activism.” Restauration economy http://www.democracynow.org/2011/4/14/grace_lee_boggs_on_detroit_ and http://www.amazon.com/Next-American-Revolution-Sustainable-Twenty-First/dp/0520269241/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1302788980&sr=8-1 Craddle to craddle approach: TED talk: http://www.ted.com/talks/william_mcdonough_on_cradle_to_cradle_design.html See articles/research by Roberto Rigobon & Yasheng Huang from MIT Sloan School Management who place different countries growth strategies and compare them and it shows that universal education seems to be an key factor. Roberto Rigabon is also the founder of the BillionPricesProject http://bpp.mit.edu/ An interesting perspective into economy is also coming from a system dynamics practicioner Prf. Kaoru Yamaguchi about how an economy could function with out debt as money. http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2010/proceed/papers/P1061.pdf “All banks should be financial intermediaries that lend depositors’ money, not engines for creating money out of nothing and lending it at interest. If every dollar invested represented a dollar previously saved we would restore the classical economists’ balance between investment and abstinence. Fewer stupid or crooked investments would be tolerated if abstinence had to precede investment. Of course the growth economists will howl that this would slow the growth of GDP. So be it—growth has become uneconomic at the present margin as we currently measure it.” http://www.bicusa.org/en/Article.11053.aspx http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_economicshttp://www.amazon.com/Ecological-Economics-Applications-Herman-Daly/dp/1559633123 Microfinance – Lending Cows Instead of Money http://microfinancehub.com/2011/01/20/microfinance-lending-cows-instead-of-money/ Bernard Lietaer: the future of money http://www.techrules.com/clients/aeatonline/docs/Bernard%20Lietaer%20-%20The%20future%20of%20money.pdf – http://www.transaction.net/money/book/ Barter economy. See David Brancaccio discuses timebanking, a bartering system through which people exchange time and services with one another using innovative approaches to build prosperity in the new economy. http://www.pbs.org/now/fixing-the-future/ The Maia Maia Project a community-run Emissions Reduction Currency System started in Perth, Western Australia: http://www.maiamaia.org/ Reinventing Money The Swiss WIR Bank http://www.reinventingmoney.com/documents/wir.html Reinventing Capitalism: Diagramming Living Capital Flows in a Green, Sustainable, and Responsible Economy http://livingcapitalmetrics.wordpress.com/2010/01/13/reinventing-capitalism/ Values center. Leadership, values, consciousness – coach based: http://www.valuescentre.com “After exploring the ideas of David Korten http://livingeconomiesforum.org/great-turning-book, Jeremy Rifkin, and Bernard Lietaer http://www.lietaer.com, there are solutions to the challenge but they don’t reside with governance… more with citizen-lead action. Since small and medium size businesses account for 65-95% of private jobs globally (Lietaer), there is a lot of power in every person who runs one. We have to put it into action. Jay Bragdon talks about the outstanding performance of companies organized around stewardship. He is now writing a book called: Companies that Mimic Nature. At the (practical) bottom of the list, Paul Hawken, Blessed Unrest, 2008. Action around the world in small semi-business groups that, he claims, has not yet become aware of itself as a coherent movement. At the (theoretical) top of the list, there is Georgescu-Roegen, The Entropy Law and the Economic Process, a lot in that work that got overlooked.” Economy & the laws of thermodynamics (developments by Ilia, David, TA) Other general resources “Wiser Earth: The Social Network for Sustainability.” At http://www.wiserearth.org/user/tjgalbert Ashoka Changemakers http://www.changemakers.com : an open social innovation platform that according to its founder amplifies existing social innovation around the world through identifying and connecting them with resources communities, networks in order for the to go to scale. The methodology is explained in the interview of Charlie Brown (7min): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUjcC4GQvgM Food & agriculture – cities See also UN call – Sustainability – Mary ‘Clearing’ events and the recent economic crisis. climax ecology http://tinyurl.com/44evggd Slow food: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slow_Food Carlo Patrini & Gary Nabhan Diversity in the food system http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/4224 Conservation agriculture (Helen Atthowe): http://www.youtube.com/paulwheaton12#p/u/0/XYfZf5Nllsk in Portland Permaculture Guild (ppg), from Paul Wheaton of permies.com. Australian permaculture: Molison, Robin Francis in Nimbin NSW, Larry Santoyo Alcool can be a gas. David Blume, Albert Bates Wangari Maathai risked her life to re-tree in Kenya The food ethanol crisis: http://www.aboutmyplanet.com/science-technology/sides-ethanol-crisis-2/ Processing of blackwater http://www.myfairshare.org/?p=460 Mega cities/green towers: http://www.mumbaimania.in/2008/09/mumbai-has-20-of-green-buildings-in.html http://cubeme.com/blog/2007/02/21/green-towers-in-the-park-seoul-commune-2026/ http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/05/green-roof-idea-tilts-skyward-istanbul.php Oregon farmers: http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/04/flax_returns_to_the_willamette.html Near lightless indoor farms http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110411/ap_on_hi_te/eu_netherlands_sunless_farming Tabor Tilth Farm http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YYZTw_xBBs LI discussion: how much land to feed 2 people? http://www.linkedin.com/groups/How-much-land-would-be-105358%2ES%2E52446751?view=&gid=105358&type=member&item=52446751&trk=eml-anet_dig-b_pd-pmr-cn Janine Benyus is up to something in India now as well as continuing to follow the plan for Lang Fang, China. http://www.environment-ecology.com/biomimicry-bioneers/218-can-we-use-biomimicry-to-design-cities-janine-benyus-says-yes.html Climate Change Work, Exergy, the Economy, Money, and Wealth http://tinyurl.com/5uewskj : this insight into the relationship between exergy flow and money flow and the consequent illusion of wealth that distorts economic ‘reality’ “The Great Global Warming Swindle”. http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5576670191369613647# (1 hour 15 minutes). “carbon dioxide is not the cause but the product of global warming?” This systemic view of earth’s exergy resources here might help: http://gcep.stanford.edu/pdfs/DyUMPHW1jsSmjoZfm2XEqg/1.3-Hermann.pdf + http://gcep.stanford.edu/pdfs/BiologicalCaptureandUtilizationWorkshopReport.pdf Direct action vs cap & trade? http://www.350.org/about/science/ There are three numbers you need to really understand global warming, 275, 388, and 350. http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-carbon-cycle-david-archer-review.html http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php gives scientific answers to topical questions. Resource on waste: http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/waste/ Your stories on solving the climate crisis where you live: http://repoweramerica.org/blog/your-stories-solving-the-climate-crisis-where-you-live/?source=em-fwd&utm_source=crm_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=sharestories-20110301 Fate of the world game: www.fateoftheworld.net http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Pk3QDC84Go&feature=player_embedded Oil based plastics can mean plastic waste can be converted into another form of oil (for example http://www.polymerenergy.com/ ) and there are bacteria that simply love to dine out on oil at http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=gulf-oil-eating-microbes-slide-show Science & Technologies An inspiring talk by Micahel Pawlyn on how Biomimicry can help sustainability initiatives: http://www.ted.com/talks/michael_pawlyn_using_nature_s_genius_in_architecture.html To quote Pawlyn: “If you want to build a flotilla of ships you do not sit around talking about carpentry. You set souls ablaze with visions of distant and exciting shores.” Plans for a huge vertical axis wind-turbine inspired by the sycamore seeds: http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/2005/jul/18/architecture.energy http://www.alt-energy.info/wind-power/windpowers-aerogenerator-changes-design-gets-even-bigger-and-more-powerful/ The Eden Project has turned an abandoned quarry into a tourist attraction. The project is inspired by the use of membranes in biology and led to the construction of the world’s largest biomes. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pO44zejAXcI&feature=fvwrel http://www.edenproject.com/index.php And a few article resources related to bio-mimicry: http://www.economist.com/node/9719013 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/5479418/Biomimicry-why-the-world-is-full-of-intelligent-design.html Bacteria Transformed into Biofuel Refineries http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=bacteria-transformed-into-biofuel-refineries Michael Pawlyn Biomimicry conference Schumacher College: www.schumachercollege.org.uk . ambitious project to reforest the Sahara desert using concentrated solar power to desalinate water for the plants: http://inhabitat.com/sahara-forest-project/ Asknature.org AskNature is the world’s first digital library of Nature’s solutions, organized by function, that can serve as an educational and cross-pollinating tool as well as a collaboration forum among biologists, engineers, designers… Ray Kurzweil: http://hplusmagazine.com/2009/12/30/ray-kurzweil-h-interview/ Vision & art http://www.ted.com/talks/jr_s_ted_prize_wish_use_art_to_turn_the_world_inside_out.html When Art Rolls In From The Sea http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/08/when_art_rolls.php Nevada Shoe Tree http://ritemail-amazing.blogspot.com/2007_05_01_archive.html

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