Description

• The theme of the EIDM short summer school is Modelling Disease Importations. Importations can be modelled as depending on traffic flow to a destination, and infection prevalence at the source. After arrival, spread of infection in the destination population depends on local immunity, local non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the size of the community. We will also investigate theoretical connections between zoonotic spillover, i.e., the probability that infection establishes and spreads in a new species, and importation modelling that considers infection establishment and spread in a new geographic region.

• The delivery will be a combination of lectures, guest lectures, and a series of short team projects that build towards larger team projects, and generate new novel insights on the topic of Modelling Disease Importations. A focus on projects is to capitalize on the unique venue for intensive, collaborative, in-person work.

Lecture topic list

General topics (any of the 5 instructors)

• Basic ordinary differential equation model analysis
• Bifurcations
• Model parameterization, uncertainty, and assumptions
• Modelling in R
• Elementary stochastic processes
• Gillespie SSA

Advanced topics

• Importation modelling (Arino)
• Metapopulations (Arino)
• Modelling COVID-19 in Atlantic Canada (Hurford, Watmough)
• Moving habitat models and infectious diseases (Hurford)
• Zoonotic spillover (Greer)
• Useful data sources to model importations (Arino)
• Extending importation models (Hurford)
• Modelling infectious diseases in Atlantic Canada (Hurford, Watmough)
• Importations and immunity (Heffernan)

Guest speakers will be invited with the aim of fostering collaboration with public health experts (aCANMOD objective), and to inspire novel directions for projects.

Confirmed Instructors and affiliations

• Dr. J. Arino (U of Manitoba, CANMOD, MfPH, OMNI)
• Dr. A. Greer (U of Guelph, CANMOD, MfPH, OMNI)
• Dr. J. Heffernan (York U, CANMOD – Scientific advisory board, MfPH, OMNI – lead of training
  network)
• Dr. A. Hurford (Memorial University of NL (MUNL), CANMOD, MfPH, OMNI)
• Dr. J. Watmough (MfPH, OMNI)