| Significant acutarial risk of death during office Επιχ.Υποστήριξης1 #6939 There is a significant actuarial risk that John McCain will not survive a full term in office. |
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- ΑναφορέςΠροσθήκη αναφοράςList by: CiterankMapLink[1]
Συγγραφέας: Alexander Burns, Politico
Παρατέθηκε από: David Price 10:24 AM 5 October 2008 GMT
Citerank: (2) 6941Acutarial models apply to populations not individualsMortality statistics describe broad population trends: the models can’t necessarily be applied to individual people.13EF597B, 6945NAIC statistics weighted towards probability of deathThe NAIC statistics, which are directed towards life insurance, have a margin in them with respect to extra deaths for financial reporting purposes that weights them slightly toward a higher probability of death.
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| Απόσπασμα- "It’s a macabre point to raise on the night when Palin will speak to the convention here — but a look at the actuarial tables insurance companies use to evaluate customers shows that it’s not an irrelevant one. According to these statistics, there is a roughly 1 in 3 chance that a 72-year-old man will not reach the age of 80, which is how old McCain would be at the end of a second presidential term. And that doesn’t factor in individual medical history, such as McCain’s battles with potentially lethal skin cancer.
“For a man, that’s above the expected lifetime at the present,” said Michael Powers, a professor of risk management and insurance at Temple University’s Fox School of Business.
The odds of a 72-year-old man living four more years, or one full White House term, are better. But for a man who has lived 72 years and 67 days (McCain’s age on Election Day this year), there is between a 14.2 and 15.1 percent chance of dying before Inauguration Day 2013, according to the Social Security Administration’s 2004 actuarial tables and the authoritative 2001 mortality statistics assembled by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.
Going by the Social Security Administration’s tables, that’s nearly ten times the likelihood that a man aged 47 years and 92 days (Barack Obama’s age on Election Day this year) will die before Jan. 20, 2013."
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