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Use of 2009 baseline To produce his estimates Feldstein uses IRS data for 2009, the most recent year for which data is available - but also the worst year for the recession. Selecting a year when tax revenue was low artificially reduces the cost of the rate cuts - and the concession changes needed to offset them.

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Visualizing the Romney Tax Debate »Visualizing the Romney Tax DebateVisualizing the Romney Tax Debate☜Tax reform has emerged as a major bone of contention in the 2012 Presidential election campaign. While President Obama has identified some tax changes, Governor Romney proposes major systemic reform. But is his plan - especially the proposals for individual taxation - viable?☜F1CEB7

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Romney's plan stated »Romney's plan statedRomney's plan stated☜For individual taxation, Romney proposes rate cuts for all taxpayers to be funded by reducing or eliminating various tax preferences. His plan aims to do this without raising the tax burden on low and middle income taxpayers, defined as $200,000 or less. It also abolishes several other taxes.☜59C6EF

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But does it compute? »But does it compute?But does it compute?☜In early August the Tax Policy Center produced an analysis showing that achieving all the goals of the Romney plan is mathematically impossible. Romney cited six studies in reply. Economists, journalists, bloggers and others then joined in on both sides. So is the plan mathematically possible?☜FFB597

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No - it does not compute »No - it does not computeNo - it does not compute☜The Tax Policy Center argues in its analysis that the various elements of the Romney plan cannot all be achieved. The TPC paper has been invoked and/or defended by almost all of the critics of the Romney plan in the debate.☜59C6EF

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The TPC case »The TPC caseThe TPC case☜The essence of the Tax Policy Centers argument is contained in the excerpt from their paper cited below. We have parsed the argument into a set of premises that must be true for the argument to hold and mapped the debate about each.☜98CE71

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Growth effect claim »Growth effect claimGrowth effect claim☜In estimating the revenue effect of the Romney tax reform, the TPC authors needed to make some assumptions about how tax reform affects economic growth. They argue that Romney tax reform would have little effect on GDP growth - but that their conclusions are robust even if some growth eventuates.☜FF97FF

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Ignores growth potential »Ignores growth potentialIgnores growth potential☜A number of critics of the TPC study claim it ignores the potential for major tax reform to increase economic growth through its effect on labor supply and capital formation. They argue such macro dynamic effects make the Romney plan viable without burdening low to middle income earners.☜EF597B

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Growth-supportive studies »Growth-supportive studiesGrowth-supportive studies☜For the growth objection to rescue the Romney plan, the increment to revenue they produce would need to be significant. Several attempts have been made to put ball-park figures on this in the studies the Romney camp cited in reply to the TPC. The main estimates are added separately.☜98CE71

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3. Feldstein »3. Feldstein3. Feldstein☜Harvard economist Martin Feldstein has defended the Romney plan in two articles (see citations). His approach differs from Rosen and Entin/McBride in that he relies on historical evidence that taxable income will rise rather than a growth simulation that implies increased revenue.☜98CE71

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Unaddressed objections »Unaddressed objectionsUnaddressed objections☜Objections to Feldsteins paper that he does not address in a subsequent reply are collected here.☜EF597B

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Use of 2009 baselineUse of 2009 baseline☜To produce his estimates Feldstein uses IRS data for 2009, the most recent year for which data is available - but also the worst year for the recession. Selecting a year when tax revenue was low artificially reduces the cost of the rate cuts - and the concession changes needed to offset them.☜98CE71

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Link[1] Is Romney’s tax plan mathematically possible, after all?

Συγγραφέας: Ezra Klein
Publication info: 10 September 2012 - Washington Post blog
Παρατέθηκε από: Peter Baldwin 4:41 AM 25 October 2012 GMT
Citerank: (2) 232174Micro-behavioral offsetsOne of the authors of the TPC analysis argues that Rosen expects taxpayers to adjust their behavior to rate cuts, but fails to do so in a symmetrical fashion for reduced tax concessions. These would offset revenue gains from the former.1198CE71, 232183Political resistanceThe TPC and its defenders point out that they have been conservative in their analysis in that they have set the bar low for the Romney plan - only testing if it is mathematically possible. Given the popularity of many of the concessions many of the mooted changes would be hard to do in practise.1198CE71
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/10/is-romneys-tax-plan-mathematically-possible-after-all/

Απόσπασμα-

5) The Tax Policy Center was using projections for 2015. Feldstein uses receipts from 2009. Ordinarily, that might not matter much, but 2009 was the worst year of the recession, and so it depressed incomes and made it cheaper to reduce rates. It’s unclear how much of an effect this has on Feldstein’s calculations, but a number of people mentioned it to me.

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Προστέθηκε από:- Peter Baldwin
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Ημερ/νία δημιουργίας(GMT): 10/25/2012 12:22:00 AM
Ημερ/νία τελευτ. επεξεργασίας(GMT time): 10/25/2012 4:42:00 AM
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