3. Demographic change
35. The world’s population now stands at over 7 billion. While another billion people are expected to arrive within the next 15 years or so, the world’s rate of population growth has slowed markedly since its peak in the 1960s. The latest data suggest that the global population is likely to reach nearly 9 billion people by 2040 and to exceed 10 billion in 2100. Population growth rates remain high in many low- income countries — among them some of the world’s most fragile states, many of which also have poor natural resource endowments. The latest United Nations population projections forecast that the number of people living in what are now least developed countries will rise from 832 million in 2010 to 1.26 billion in 2030 — an increase of 51 per cent in just two decades.1

36. At the same time, developing countries, where young people are currently concentrated, have the opportunity to collect a substantial demographic dividend over the coming decades. With dependency ratios falling and youthful (and increasingly urban) populations offering substantial economic opportunities, many developing countries are primed for major increases in prosperity.

37.    However, these countries risk losing the opportunity to capitalize on a young population if the education and training needed is not provided, and if job creation is not stimulated through functioning markets and effective Government policies. These countries risk growing economic stagnation and social unrest, as poorly skilled young people vent their frustrations at the prospect of a life of underemployment and stifled aspirations.

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1 United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive
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3. Demographic change
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