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Human cognitive biases
Opinion
1
#7050
Familiar cognitive errors that afflicted everyone: investors, home buyers, lenders, regulators.
The analysis in this section draws on
Megan McArdle's blog post
on The Atlantic.com:
"How did it all happen?"
Immediately related elements
How this works
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The Global Financial Crisis »
The Global Financial Crisis
The Global Financial CrisisâExploring the causes, consequences and responses to the global financial crisis. âF1CEB7
▲
Long-term causes of the financial crisis? »
Long-term causes of the financial crisis?
Long-term causes of the financial crisis?âWhat are the long term causes of the current financial crisis?âFFB597
■
Human cognitive biases
Human cognitive biasesâFamiliar cognitive errors that afflicted everyone: investors, home buyers, lenders, regulators.â59C6EF
●
Forms of human cognitive bias? »
Forms of human cognitive bias?
Forms of human cognitive bias?ââFFB597
●
Homebuyers saw rising house prices as natural order »
Homebuyers saw rising house prices as natural order
Homebuyers saw rising house prices as natural orderâHomebuyers looked at 50 years of steadily rising home prices, with few and small declines, and concluded that rising home prices were some kind of natural law.â98CE71
●
Investors underweighted systemic risk »
Investors underweighted systemic risk
Investors underweighted systemic riskâInvestors focused on the likelihood that an individual security would underperform: not at what might happen if house prices suddenly dropped ten percent, or credit markets violently contracted.â98CE71
●
Lenders overconfident in their ability to manage risk »
Lenders overconfident in their ability to manage risk
Lenders overconfident in their ability to manage riskâWith house prices rising steadily loan default rates fell, and lendersâoverweighting recent events, looking at other people lending, and mindful of their immediate financial and competitive incentivesâconcluded that it was safe to continue lending.â98CE71
●
Regulators overestimated their powers of insight and response »
Regulators overestimated their powers of insight and response
Regulators overestimated their powers of insight and responseâRegulators believed that improvements in both computer models, and in economic theory of regulation, would allow them to identify and halt any crisis before it occurred.â98CE71
●
Cognitive Biases are constant »
Cognitive Biases are constant
Cognitive Biases are constantâHuman cognitive biases have not changed much over the last thousand years, let alone the last ten years. Therefore, they may have amplified certain aspects of the crisis, but can not be the sole explanation.âEF597B
►
House price bubble in the US »
House price bubble in the US
House price bubble in the USâHouse price bubble in the US.âFFFACD
►
Credit-rating agencies underestimated risks »
Credit-rating agencies underestimated risks
Credit-rating agencies underestimated risksâCredit rating agencies failed to appreicate and state the true nature and scale of the risks faced by the insititutions they were rating.âFFFACD
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[1]
How did it all happen?
En citant:
Megan McArdle
Cité par:
David Price
3:04 PM 8 October 2008 GMT
URL:
http://meganmcardle.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/how_did_it_all_happen.php
Extrait -
"Another way to think about [what went wrong] is as a series of cognitive errors that afflicted everyone: investors, home buyers, lenders, regulators."
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Entrée par:
David Price
NodeID:
#7050
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Date d'entrée (GMT):
10/8/2008 3:02:00 PM
Date de la derniĂšre modification (Heure GMT):
10/8/2008 3:22:00 PM
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