Summary of Sharp et al.'s article from Ecology and Society (from the MAHB Newsletter):

Through the Scottish Alliance for Geoscience, Environment and Society, or SAGES, leading scientists from across Scotland’s research base have created a multi-disciplinary alliance intent on elevating earth and environmental research. SAGES aims “to improve our understanding of how the Earth system works, and to improve our predictions of its potential response to human-induced changes, on both local and global scales” (sages.ac.uk). Collaborators work on five primary themes: Landscape Dynamics, Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate; Transformations in Society and Environmental Policy; Terrestrial Carbon; and the Centre for Earth System Dynamics.

Members of the Transformations in Society and Environmental Policy team recently published an article in Ecology and Society in which they reflect on the Three Horizons practice for transformation. The Three Horizons approach aims to “help work with uncertain futures in imaginative ways while also retaining important societal features from the present” —ideally, bridging the gap between present social dispositions and the future of sustainable living.  

The Three Horizons approach involves a facilitated process in which participants determine how different patterns change over time. The experience helps participants reframe how they understand the relationship between the present and the future. The approach uses a simple framework that includes three lines, where each line represents a system or pattern in the way things are done. This may include but is not limited to: how a government runs, the values of a society, or the use of technology like cell phones. The framework represents how an established first horizon pattern gives way over time to an emerging third horizon, through the transitional activity in the second horizon.

To further explain the approach, the authors outline the premises of each horizon:

The first horizon “represents the way things are done now, generally called ‘business as usual.’” Society relies on stable patterns for the everyday interactions of life, and most change is incremental within these patterns, while society serves to reproduce and reinforce them. The starting point for a three horizon conversation is “the recognition that the first horizon pattern is losing its fit with emerging conditions” of social life, which although stable is also very subject to change.

The second horizon represents “the turbulent domain of transitional activities and innovations that people are trying out in response to the changing landscape between the first and third horizons.” This second horizon is important, as it provides the disruptions for more radical third horizon systems to emerge.

The third horizon “represents the emerging pattern that will be the long-term successor to the current first horizon.” This horizon appears on the fringes of the present system by developing new ways of meeting the emerging conditions and possibilities. Although a dominant idea may take hold, the initiating of the third horizon may contain many different ideas about the future.

The Three Horizons approach helps people begin to make sense of complex situations through seeing the world in patterns. This view is strengthened by the way that it is relevant to their concerns and their aspirations for change. Upon reflection, the authors suggest the approach allows “participants to ‘put themselves in the picture’ and to relate their own role in bringing about change to that of other actors.” By moving from their own mindset to a wider perspective, participants can improve the quality of future-oriented dialogue between those who have responsibility for the present pattern and those seeking a path of transformation to the future. You can find the full article about the Three Horizons approach here.

This article comes out of SAGES’s work in the area of understanding human processes or behaviors in response to environmental change. You can learn more about the collaborative research SAGES is undertaking through the alliance’s website.