06. Ensure long-term thinking

In traditional economics, decisions are utility-maximising. Agents rationally evaluate the consequences of their actions, and take the decision that maximize their utility. However, it is well known that this rationalistic view does not fully capture human nature. We tend to overestimate short-term impact and underestimate the long term (see Saffo). In policy-making, short-termism is a frequent issue. People are reluctant to accept short-term sacrifices for long-term benefits. Politicians have elections typically every 5 years, and often their decisions are taken to maximize the impact “before the elections”. There is also the perception that laypeople are less sensitive to long term consequences, which are instead better understood by experts. Overall, long-term impact is less visible and easier to hide, due to lack of evidence and data, as well as of models to simulate ex-ante alternative policy options. As a result, decisions are too often taken looking at short-term benefits, even though they might bring long term problems.

Climate change is a typical policy area where sub-optimal decisions were taken because the short-term costs were considered to outweigh the long term consequences. The long term impact is not visible, while the short term sacrifices were, even though ICT had an important role in stimulating the debate and catalysing attention of the media on the issue.

Immediately related elementsHow this works
-
Crossover Research Roadmap – Policy-Making 2.0 »Crossover Research Roadmap – Policy-Making 2.0
3. The Demand Side of Policy-Making 2.0 »3. The Demand Side of Policy-Making 2.0
Key challenges for policy-makers »Key challenges for policy-makers
06. Ensure long-term thinking
+Commentaires (0)
+Citations (0)
+About