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Author: Steve O'Grady
Cited by: David Price 10:30 AM 3 April 2009 GMT
Citerank: (12) 15414OECD forecasts 2.7% global economic contraction in 2009The latest authoritative forecast, from the OECD, points to a global economic contraction of 2.7 per cent in 2009, the worst since the Second World War8FFB597, 15443Reassurance that vulnerable nations won't go bustRecapitalising the IMF is a genuinely valuable move, reassuring the world that vulnerable nations will not be allowed to go bust.1198CE71, 15449Figure is deceptive as much of this has been spent alreadyThis sounds a lot, but much of it has been spent already.13EF597B, 15450No commitment to IMF goal of 2% GDP fiscal boostThere is no commitment to the IMF's goal that all nations commit to a further fiscal boost of 2 per cent of GDP – about $3 trillion.13EF597B, 15451Exit strategies are not realisticMost nations have "exit strategies" – tax rises and spending cuts – to reduce budget deficits, but few are credible. If launched too soon they could halt a fledgling recovery.13EF597B, 15453Vast trade defict between China and the USThe vast trade deficit between China and the US created the "great wall of money" that funded the credit boom and the banks' misadventures.1198CE71, 15454New institutions prone to old failingsThe new Financial Stability Board could be seen as an embryonic global watchdog – or as another slow-moving collection of regulators.13EF597B, 15457Bring to an end the usual EU/US stitch upThe proposal will bring to an end the usual stitch-up whereby the head of the IMF is always European and the head of the World Bank American.1198CE71, 15458Words are inconsisitent with behaviourThe pledge was not to introduce new tariffs and quotas on trade. The World Bank says that 17 of the G20 powers then went ahead and did precisely that.13EF597B, 15459Domestic political pressures to protect jobsDomestic political pressures to protect jobs are becoming irresistible and seem likely to undermine the stated intention.13EF597B, 15460Expansion in Chinese coal-fired power stationsThe Chinese will probably continue to build a power station a week, usually coal-powered.13EF597B, 15461Help to minimise social unrest and enforced migrationNeglecting the poorest people on the planet during the current financial crisis would fuel social unrest and encourage mass migration.1198CE71 URL:
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