Arguments
ARGUMENTS FROM AUTHORITY
1: The article constantly recieves input from Douglas Holtz-Eakin,
former Congressional Budget Office director.
Concerned that plan invites people to change their behavior and take advantage of it.
VALIDITY TEST
AUTHORITY IN THE FIELD? Yes, he is an economist and expert in analyzing and providing
financial data for Congress.
RELATIVELY UNBIASED? Served as the director for the nonpartican CBO. But he
has served in special roles for primarily for Republican presidents so could be biased
RECENT OPINION? Yes
PROVIDE REASONS FROM OPINION? Yes
CONSISTENT WITH OTHER EXPERTS? Yes, many other experts agree with his opinion.
2: The article recieves input from economists Richard Burkhauser,
Sean Lyons and Kosali Simon.
State that there will also be strong incentives for employees to have their
employer reduce the contribution to health insurance to take advantage
of federal subsidies
VALIDITY TEST
AUTHORITY IN THE FIELD? Yes, all serve important positions in financial study and policy.
RELATIVELY UNBIASED? Yes, all three share different political views.
RECENT OPINION? Yes
PROVIDE REASONS FROM OPINION? Yes
CONSISTENT WITH OTHER EXPERTS? Yes, also agrees with Holtz-Eakin
ARGUMENTS FROM SIGN
1. Argues that the presence of the largest national debt in history will
make the health care impossible to sustain and make it a giant target for
cuts.
VALIDITY TEST
CONCIDE OFTEN? Yes, at a time when cuts are needed to reduce deficits, the government
will place a giant target on the program to improve economy.
OTHER FACTORS CONFUSE RELATIONSHIP? Yes. Other welfare programs can confuse relationship
between the program and its effect on the economy.
ARGUMENTS FROM CAUSE
Sufficient cause: Notes that the program will have a large footprint to create
an economic disaster for the nation's economy.
However, this health care program will not be large enough to tumble the
nation's economy and credit ratings by itself. Other factors in the government
spending will contribute to the possible collapse of the economy.
TESTING: It cannot be concidental.
There is no case where a large government based program hasn't made an
impact in the economy.
Neccessary Cause: “Obamacare’s creation of new entitlements increases dependency on government and pushes our country deeper into a fiscal crisis of Greek proportion.”
TESTING: Not a valid argument because the Greek financial crisis was caused by factors that didn’t involve a large government healthcare program.
Contributory cause: He notes that the creation of the health care plan will
convince more uninsured employees/people to get signed onto a health care
plan and that seems to be a reasonable argument.
TESTING: Could be concidental that a large population of uninsured employees
sign up for health care, but if the bill is in tact there is a greater possibility
that it is due to the law.
ARGUMENTS FROM EXAMPLE
1. "Report from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services: premiums are set
to increase for most Americans, and government actuaries now estimate the growth
in the net cost of health insurance will increase by 14 percent — compared to 3.5 percent
if Obamacare never passed."
2. "Beginning in 2014, tens of millions of employees will be eligible for these new
subsidies.
3. “Several employer surveys have verified Holtz-Eakin’s concern. McKinsey & Co. found that 30 percent of employers — and 28 percent of large ones — said they will definitely or probably drop coverage after 2014. Roughly 57 percent of small companies now offering coverage are at least somewhat likely to drop health insurance, according to the National Federation of Independent Businesses, if employees begin to opt out of the employer-sponsored health plan and into subsidized coverage.”
4. “Though the CBO estimates that Obamacare’s new spending will cost about $200 billion per year when the law takes effect”
TESTING
Sufficient number of examples: Yes
Representative of involved population: Yes, stats based on large employers and the American population as a whole.
Negative examples counted?: No, negative examples are not counted. EX. Percentage of employers that will keep coverage after 2014 is roughly 70% (a majority), which is in the contrary of the position the person is debating.
Most representative examples: Whole population and large employers
ARGUMENT FROM ANALOGY
1. “Obamacare’s creation of new entitlements increases dependency on government and pushes our country deeper into a fiscal crisis of Greek proportion.”
Compares the United States spending craze to the Greek financial crisis
TEST:
Similarities: Both involve governments spending too much money
Dissimilarities: The Greek financial crisis was caused by other factors beside a health care plan.