What we know: In May 2008, Zimbabwean strongman Robert Mugabe lost a democratic election for the presidency but refused to leave office, throwing the country into chaos. An emergency mediator, then-South African President Thabo Mbeki stepped in to broker a power-sharing agreement between Mugabe and the poll's winner, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. After tortuous discussions, the new government was finally formed in February 2009. Under its purview, the country stabilized and the economy finally halted its freefall into negative growth rates. Yet while Zimbabwe may be marginally better off than it was a few years ago, the governing alliance has been fraught from day one. Prime Minister Tsvangirai has pulled out of the government numerous times in protest of his exclusion from key decisions, and to this day, Mugabe remains the ultimate powerbroker. What we learn: In early 2007, a year and a half before the presidential election was held, an exiled Zimbabwean businessman told the U.S. Embassy in Pretoria, South Africa that he had an idea to sideline Mugabe: a power-sharing agreement. According to the leaked cable, the businessman explained his "idea to shift executive power from President Mugabe to a 'technocratic' Prime Minister. To get Mugabe to accept the deal, Mugabe would remain President until 2010 with some power over the security apparatus, but the Prime Minister would run the economy and get the country back on its feet." The U.S. embassy in turn suggested that he continue to float the idea and mentioned possible mediators, including U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. Interestingly, this is almost exactly what happened during later power-sharing discussions. But not all of the Embassy's predictions come true. Another cable signed by Amb. Christopher W. Dell proclaims that the "end is nigh" for Mugabe. He explains that, while coherent, Mugabe has made a series of irreversibly bad decisions. Dell forecasts the end of the strongman's rule to come either through democratic elections, or through a series of catastrophic events, including palace coups, military coups, or popular uprisings. Most interestingly, Dell cautions his colleagues in Washington against relying on Tsvangirai, describing him as flawed and indecisive. "[Tsvangarai] is the indispensable element for opposition success, but possibly an albatross around their necks once in power. In short, he is a kind of Lech Walesa character: Zimbabwe needs him, but should not rely on his executive abilities to lead the country's recovery." Add this to the list of awkward conversations that the State Department is having with erstwhile allies. Tsvangirai today is a staunch friend of the West in a country that has long been a pariah. As Mugabe has continued to decry the pernicious influence of Western democratic reforms, Tsvangirai has toured European capitals and spent extensive time in Washington trying to convince the United States, the World Bank, and the IMF to take embattled Zimbabwe off the aid blacklist. The curveball: Robert Mugabe continues to manipulate the Kimberly Process, a mechanism intended to help certify that diamonds are "conflict free." A series of leaked State Department cables recall the smuggling routes and the players involved in Zimbabwe's diamond trade. Another ominously predicts government takeovers of the mines and mining communities, which would displace up to 25,000 Zimbabweans.