Speaker: James Watmough, University of New Brunswick

Date and Time: Wednesday, October 25, 2023 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Abstract

The early disease transmission model of Kermack and McKendrick established two main results that are still at the core of most disease transmission models today: the basic reproduction number as a threshold for disease spread in a population; and the final size of an epidemic.

As models become more complex, the relationship between disease spread, final size and Ro are not as clear. In this talk I will review the notions of the next generation matrix, reproduction number, and final size for the simple epidemic model and discuss their extension to more complex models.