2. How is a path determined?
A path emerges through a series of decisions that are made over time and it gradually narrows down the set of available future options. All dimensions (technology, economics, politics, culture and discourse) play a role in determining a path. The specific interplay and relative importance of the various factors depends on the particular case.

Various factors interact to determine a path over time.  

  • Technology: Scientists and experts play an important role in determining a path. Technological break-throughs can disrupt a path and open up new ones while technological improvements maintain a current path. At the same time, the role of technology should not be overstated. Technology provides the enabling conditions for a path but is not the only factor that determines it. For example, the electric motor was invented as a technology long time ago. Yet, mobility developed along the path of another technology: the internal combustion engine. 
  • Economics: Technologies are often developed by companies. Therefore, there is a strong link between the technological and economic factors. Economic interests can push for a certain path because it will generate benefits. Similarly economic interests can make it difficult to leave a current path. Often this is the case when paths have given rise to whole new industries with their supply chains and thus created economic path dependencies.
  • Politics: Politics can influence the choice of a path by setting regulations that make some options more attactive than others. For example, lowering highway tolls while increasing rail fees has pushed cargo transport away from the railroad track. Another example mentioned in the trialog is the Erneubare Energie Gesetz and its predecesor which created the conditions for the development of renewable technologies as a possible path. 
  • User behavior/culture: User practices are difficult to predict. Sometimes user practices can be an obstacle to switching to a new path due to existing cultural and behavioral path dependencies.  Other times, user behavior can adapt over time to new technologies. In some cases, changing user values (Wertewandel) might even create a demand for a new technology rather than users reactively adapting to new technological developments.
  • Discourse: Discursive path dependencies are about the mental pictures and mindsets that become so ingrained in people's lifestyles that the current path is not questioned while alternatives are automatically ruled out.
Immediately related elementsHow this works
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TRIALOG: Setting a path for urban mobility (PROTOTYPE) »TRIALOG: Setting a path for urban mobility (PROTOTYPE)
1. Main topics of the trialog »1. Main topics of the trialog
1. Paths and path dependency »1. Paths and path dependency
2. How is a path determined?
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