1.    The impacts of current production and consumption patterns and resource scarcity

25.    First and most fundamentally, the fact that development is not yet sustainable for all countries and all peoples will itself drive change — because by definition, any trend that is unsustainable cannot last. In practice, rapidly improving science and knowledge of the planet’s natural systems is making clear the effects of unsustainable development in climate change, environmental degradation and resource scarcity.

26.    Climate change is a risk to all countries and individuals. Among its expected impacts are reductions in crop yields, particularly at low latitudes (where most developing countries are); changed precipitation patterns and reduced water availability in some regions such as the dry tropics; increased land degradation and desertification; negative impacts on human health; sea-level rise, likely to pose an existential threat to some small island developing States and communities in countries with large coastal areas; and new risks from extreme weather. These risks are particularly severe for the world’s poorest.

27. Humanity cannot adapt to increasing damages forever: sooner or later, the underlying root cause of rising greenhouse gas concentrations must be faced up to and stabilized. By bringing humanity face to face with the unsustainability of current development models, the impacts of climate change and the costs of addressing it will force us to make substantial changes in our patterns of production and consumption, though this need not imply lower living standards. There will also be major opportunities as we make these shifts, with new jobs emerging in sectors contributing to economic growth and improvements in global welfare. Conversely, any delay in action will exacerbate the problem, increase the costs and reduce the benefits. Climate change calls for the world to embark on sustained processes of economic, social and institutional innovation and renewal; to address new challenges to international peace and security; and to face up to fundamental questions about fairness in the distribution of responsibility and risk.

28. Similarly, resource scarcity — especially of energy, food, land, forests and water — has established itself firmly on Governments’ radar, and relates directly to the problem of unsustainable production and consumption patterns. Concerns about scarcity may recede at times if prices fall temporarily, but the underlying fundamentals — of rising demand for resources of all kinds, unsustainable use levels of both finite and renewable resources and inadequate (albeit growing) investment in systems for sustainable resource use — make it likely that scarcity and concerns over resource sustainability will once again move up the policy agenda before long.

29. Resource scarcity could lead towards greater recognition of the need for aggressive efforts to conserve resources, promote the most efficient use and replace non-renewable with renewable resources wherever possible, as well as prompting decisive policy action to address the issue collectively and coherently. But on the other hand it could also lead to narrow thinking, and behaviours that make matters worse — such as food export bans, oil and land grabs, increased geopolitical friction as major powers mobilize to secure supplies, or perverse and inefficient subsidies.

30.    Environmental degradation ― expressed as loss of fertile soils, desertification, unsustainable forest management, reduction of freshwater availability and an extreme biodiversity loss rate ― does not leave enough time to the environment for recovery and regeneration. The greater the rate of production and consumption, with improper waste management, the greater the strain on ecosystems and the drainage of natural resources, leading to a scarcity of vital resources. Nearly two thirds of the services provided by nature to humankind are found to be in decline worldwide.

31. More broadly, with critical natural systems under severe stress, scientists around the world have sought to identify and quantify the risks involved for both humanity and the natural systems themselves. The Brundtland report acknowledged that “there are thresholds that cannot be crossed without endangering the basic integrity of the system”. Awareness is growing of the potential for passing “tipping points” beyond which environmental change accelerates, has the potential to become self-perpetuating, and may be difficult or even impossible to reverse. The work of the Stockholm Resilience Centre on planetary boundaries (see box 2) is an important example of work in this field.

32.    As knowledge and awareness of the “global life support systems” on which humanity depends increase, so the scope for global action to protect them may also grow — if the right surveillance, decision-making and implementation systems are in place, and if the political will required is available.