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Islamic extremists could reenter the Tunisian scene
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Explain
⌅
Technology: Oppressor or liberator?
Technology: Oppressor or liberator?☜This map is the first order of business of the Civilization Project - it explores the political power of social media and the impact of emerging technologies on the future of civilization, with a focus on whether they will enhance or detract from human freedom.☜F1CEB7
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U.S. policy on Internet Freedom
U.S. policy on Internet Freedom☜☜FFB597
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Some inconsistencies remain in the U.S. Internet Freedom policy
Some inconsistencies remain in the U.S. Internet Freedom policy☜Feels like the right-hand of the government is unaware of the left-hands doings. For every strong statement about preserving liberty, freedom of expression, and privacy on the global Internet, there exists a countervailing example of the United States attempting to undermine those same values☜59C6EF
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Internet freedom conflicts with realpolitik foundations of U.S. policy
Internet freedom conflicts with realpolitik foundations of U.S. policy☜Internet freedom conflicts with the realpolitik foundations of U.S. foreign policy. These are cynical foundations that dont care about human rights.☜9FDEF6
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The West clearly tends to support dictators more than democracy
The West clearly tends to support dictators more than democracy☜Despite the popular/propagandist notion, widely spread over the Western population, that the West wants to defend democracy, many Arabs feel that the West is really after the stability provided by strong regimes, which facilitates access to the wealth these regimes control.☜9FDEF6
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Should dictators be supported as a bastion against radical islamism?
Should dictators be supported as a bastion against radical islamism?☜☜FFB597
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The western reluctance to support revolutions is justified
The western reluctance to support revolutions is justified☜☜59C6EF
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Regime changes will not necessarily be towards democracy
Regime changes will not necessarily be towards democracy☜A lesson of the Tunisian revolution is that it was surprisingly easy to force the President out of the country. The fact that Internet may facilitate revolutions does not entail that revolutions will necessarily lead to democracy. ☜FF97FF
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The Tunisian revolution has not succeeded yet.
The Tunisian revolution has not succeeded yet. ☜The Tunisian revolution has not succeeded yet. We dont know what will happen next. Non democratic outcomes are still possible. The army could take the power and keep it. Islamic extremists could reenter the scene.☜98CE71
■
Islamic extremists could reenter the Tunisian scene
Islamic extremists could reenter the Tunisian scene☜☜98CE71
↳
Al Qaeda could use this opportunity to assert its influence
Al Qaeda could use this opportunity to assert its influence☜If elections are not held in a timely manner or if the results of said election are not deemed acceptable by the new administration an opportunity could present itself for al Qaeda to assert its influence and impose Sharia law. We could have an Afghanistan in Africa.☜98CE71
↳
Iran 1979: democratic protests followed by an Islamist regime
Iran 1979: democratic protests followed by an Islamist regime☜Iran 1979: the democratic protests against the Shah were followed by an Islamist regime. History has shown that liberating revolutions rarely end up with democracy: more often (as in Cuba or Venezuela), they set up the stage for totalitarian regimes☜98CE71
↳
Islamic movement bubbling up in universities
Islamic movement bubbling up in universities☜☜98CE71
↳
Leader of Tunisia's Islamic movement Ennahdha wants to return home
Leader of Tunisia's Islamic movement Ennahdha wants to return home☜☜98CE71
↳
Islamists have been absent in the recent events
Islamists have been absent in the recent events☜☜EF597B
↳
The Islamist movement has been decimated over the last two decades
The Islamist movement has been decimated over the last two decades☜Both Bourghiba and Ben Ali fought for a strongly secular state and totally excluded the Islamists from the Tunisian political scene. In the 90s, Ben Alis government arrested and jailed lots of Islamists, making the Islamist opposition nearly inexistent.☜EF597B
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Democracy and religion are incompatible
Democracy and religion are incompatible☜While democracy guarantees the right to be a believer or not, mixing religion and politics carries the risk that Gods wish will stand above everything else, including the wish of the people. Theocracy kills democracy.☜FF97FF
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A slow slide towards chaos could set the stage for another Ben Ali
A slow slide towards chaos could set the stage for another Ben Ali☜☜98CE71
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No organized opposition party, no alternative political program
No organized opposition party, no alternative political program☜Tunisia doesnt have an autonomous political elite able to quickly take over☜98CE71
□
The Tunisian Army could hold to power and keep a repressive state
The Tunisian Army could hold to power and keep a repressive state☜☜98CE71
□
Graph of this discussion
Graph of this discussion☜Click this to see the whole debate, excluding comments, in graphical form☜dcdcdc
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Entered by:-
François Dongier
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Entry date (GMT):
1/15/2011 12:09:00 AM
Last edit date (GMT):
1/20/2011 12:43:00 PM
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