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2021/09/28 Michael Li

Challenges in Model Prediction of the Final Size of Epidemics

  • Speaker: Michael Li, University of Alberta
  • Date and Time: Tuesday, September 28, 2021 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm
  • Location: Online
  • Abstract: During the the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models tended to over-project the epidemic waves. At the beginning of the pandemic, modelling groups around the world projected that, if no public health responses are implemented, over 60% of the population will be infected. In recent model projections for the 4th waves, a similar figure of over 60% of the unvaccinated and partial vaccinated population will be infected. This level of projection seem to run contrary to real pandemics in history and recent times.
  • An examination of the well known final-size formula for standard epidemic models provide a reason for the over-projections; when the basic reproduction number R0 is around 2, the infected proportion will be over 80% by the final size formula, and the susceptible population has to decline about 50% for the the epidemic to peak. This begs for discussions on two kinds of questions: (1) What other drivers need to be considered, in addition to the decline of susceptible population, to understand why and when real epidemics peak and then fall? (2) How do we adapt the standard epidemic models to make reliable predictions of real epidemics.
  • This event will not be recorded so please join live if you can.
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