Details view: 2021/09/07 Feaven Sahle, Kamil Malikov & Peter Hamilton

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2021/09/07 Feaven Sahle, Kamil Malikov & Peter Hamilton

The use of a hurricane model in public health: method, use and presentation.

Abstract: Hurricane models are family of the nonparametric models more familiar to the world of finance and banking where it is used for forecasting of various financial indicators. The methodology was developed by a team led by Taha Jaffer and Kumar Murty from Fields Institute and the University of Toronto with funding provided from CIHR and NSERC. The term 'hurricane' reflects the cyclical nature of the case trend transitioning between four quadrants of growth and change in growth (early warning, hot spots, managing, and cooling down). We started the use of these type of models in public health during COVID after an initial presentation of the concept by Taha Jaffer of the research carried out by the Fields-University of Toronto group. Here we will present the concept, method, some preliminary results that require confirmation through other means and unique way of presenting the results to broader audiences. This animation is our contribution to the application of the concept.

Feaven Sahle is a Senior Methodologist from the Methods and Modelling Unit within the Ministry of Health. Prior to involvement with MOH she worked with project teams across the Learning Ministries - leveraging data analysis to support reporting on various program areas and machine learning for representing and modelling large volumes of structured and unstructured data. Feaven has an Honours Bachelor of Science in Actuarial Science and Economics with a minor in Statistics from the University of Toronto.

Peter Hamilton is a Senior Visual Analytics Developer from the Cognitive Analytics unit within the Health Data Science Branch. He is responsible for data visualization, animations, and interactive simulations for the branch, which he has been with for over 3 years. Prior to working in government, Peter spent over 10 years working as a software developer and designer in the private and non-profit sector, creating applications used by millions worldwide.

Kamil Malikov MD, MSc, MBA, CPA, CMA is a Director of Health Data Science Branch with the Ministries of Health and Long-Term Care. Before joining Ontario Public Service in 2009 Kamil worked as a physician internationally, served as a civil servant leading international development, health, education, and social services programs for the United Nations and the World Bank. Kamil also worked in academia managing international clinicals from McMaster University.