220601 COVID-19 in the UK: Data, Models, Projections and Policy
Dr. Matt Keeling, Professor in the Mathematics Institute and the School of Life Sciences at the University of Warwick (UK), June 1, 2022.
- The SARS-CoV-2 virus has highlighted our vulnerability to zoonotic infections, and has important lessons in terms of a One Health approach. In this talk, I'll focus on how the pandemic has developed in the UK over the past two years. In particular, I will concentrate on the link between data and models, and how this has enabled a continual refinement of projections as more epidemiological knowledge is integrated into the modelling frameworks. I'll start with the modelling response to the first wave, when very little was known about the virus; I'll discuss the implications of vaccination and the relaxation of control measures; ending with the Omicron variant and the potential risk of future variants. In each case the models and projections are driven by new data and new policy questions. I'll conclude with thoughts about what we could have done better and lessons for the next pandemic.