10 Dynamic Bifurcation and Scenario Analyses
This project aims to deliver a MfPH Library of important model frameworks (discrete vs continuous, deterministic vs stochastic, homogeneous vs heterogeneous and structured); examine their respective strengths and limitations in association with those issues addressed in other MfPH projects; link the bifurcation phenomena to observed patterns of COVID-19 pandemic in Canada and globally; and distinguish finite-time behaviour optimisation from asymptotic behaviour (infinite time horizon).
- We will also identify and mitigate non identifiability to direct surveillance or model design to avoid the situation that a bifurcation parameter of importance for scenario analyses cannot be reliably estimated using current surveillances and models. Efficient software codes for model fitting with data that ensure convergence in the presence of non identifiability will also be developed.
Leads: Jacques Bélair (University of Montreal, Montreal) and Michael Li (University of Alberta, Edmonton)
Team Members: Julien Arino, Felicia Magpantay, Jianhong Wu, Xiaoqiang Zhao and Xingfu Zou