comments
Respond
Comment on the article
Add a citation
Reply with an article
Start a new topic
Edit
Edit article
Delete article
Share
Invite
Link
Embed
Social media
Avatar
View
Graph
Explorer
Focus
Down
Load 1 level
Load 2 levels
Load 3 levels
Load 4 levels
Load all levels
All
Dagre
Focus
Down
Load 1 level
Load 2 levels
Load 3 levels
Load 4 level
Load all levels
All
Tree
SpaceTree
Focus
Expanding
Load 1 level
Load 2 levels
Load 3 levels
Down
All
Down
Radial
Focus
Expanding
Load 1 level
Load 2 levels
Load 3 levels
Down
All
Down
Box
Focus
Expanding
Down
Up
All
Down
Article ✓
Outline
Document
Down
All
Page
Canvas
Time
Timeline
Calendar
Updates
Subscribe to updates
Get updates
Past 24 hours
Past week
Past month
Past year
Pause updates
Contact us
Overconfidence bias
People are too confident in the accuracy of their predictions.
RELATED ARTICLES
Explain
⌅
Tackling obesity in the UK
Tackling obesity in the UK☜With concern growing that the Foresight analysis—that 50% of the UK population could be obese by 2050, at an annual cost to the nation of around £50 billion per year [2]—substantially underestimates the scale of the unfolding obesity crisis, the College of Contemporary Health is working with the wider policy community to develop a whole systems map of the obesity crisis and the potential responses.☜F1CEB7
⌃
Barriers to change
Barriers to change☜What are the barriers to tackling obesity?☜FF4888
⌃
Cognitive bias
Cognitive bias☜Cognitive biases are patterns of deviation in judgment, in which inferences about other people and situations are drawn in an illogical fashion.[1]☜FF4888
■
Overconfidence bias
Overconfidence bias☜People are too confident in the accuracy of their predictions.☜FF4888
□
Availability heuristic
Availability heuristic☜People tend to overweight data that comes easily to mind, which is to say vivid (extreme) and recent examples.☜FF4888
□
Bandwagon effect
Bandwagon effect☜People tend to believe that something is a better idea if a lot of other people are doing it.☜FF4888
□
Beneffectance
Beneffectance☜People tend to view success as a result of their own actions, while they view failures as having been due to factors largely outside of their control.☜FF4888
□
Confirmation bias
Confirmation bias☜The tendency to look for data that confirms your theory, rather than data that falsifies it. ☜FF4888
□
Hyperbolic discounting
Hyperbolic discounting☜People value small short-term payoffs more than much higher long-term payoffs.☜FF4888
□
Information cascade
Information cascade☜An information cascade occurs where people dismiss their individual instincts and personal data and base their decisions on the choices made by previous decision makers—and their decisions in turn influence every subsequent person to do the same.☜FF4888
□
Optimistic bias
Optimistic bias☜People tend to be overconfident about their own abilities and the outcome of their plans.☜FF4888
□
Promotion of people with short-term, action bias
Promotion of people with short-term, action bias☜People promoted to run top companies are typically selected for the ability to deliver immediate targets; this focus often makes them poorly equipped to take the more distanced, historical perspective necessary to spot the long-term trouble brewing.☜FF4888
□
Recency effect
Recency effect☜People tend to overweight recent events in considering the probability of future events. ☜FF4888
□
Graph of this discussion
Graph of this discussion☜Click this to see the whole debate, excluding comments, in graphical form☜dcdcdc
Enter the title of your article
Enter a short (max 500 characters) summation of your article
Click the button to enter task scheduling information
Open
Enter the main body of your article
Prefer more work space? Try the
big editor
Enter task details
Message text
Select assignee(s)
Due date (click calendar)
RadDatePicker
RadDatePicker
Open the calendar popup.
Calendar
Title and navigation
Title and navigation
<<
<
November 2024
>
<<
November 2024
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
44
27
28
29
30
31
1
2
45
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
46
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
47
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
48
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
49
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Reminder
No reminder
1 day before due
2 days before due
3 days before due
1 week before due
Ready to post
Copy to text
Enter
Cancel
Task assignment(s) have been emailed and cannot now be altered
Lock
Cancel
Save
Comment graphing options
Choose comments:
Comment only
Whole thread
All comments
Choose location:
To a new map
To this map
New map options
Select map ontology
Options
Standard (default) ontology
College debate ontology
Hypothesis ontology
Influence diagram ontology
Story ontology
Graph to private map
Cancel
Proceed
+Comments (
0
)
- Comments
Add a comment
Newest first
Oldest first
Show threads
+Citations (
0
)
- Citations
Add new citation
List by:
Citerank
Map
+About
- About
Entered by:-
David Price
NodeID:
#352934
Node type:
Obstacle
Entry date (GMT):
9/10/2014 9:42:00 AM
Last edit date (GMT):
9/10/2014 9:42:00 AM
Show other editors
Incoming cross-relations:
0
Outgoing cross-relations:
0
Average rating:
0
by
0
users
Enter comment
Select article text to quote
Cancel
Enter
welcome text
First name
Last name
Email
Skip
Join
x
Select file to upload