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Recency effect
People tend to overweight recent events in considering the probability of future events.
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Tackling obesity in the UK
Tackling obesity in the UK☜With concern growing that the Foresight analysis—that 50% of the UK population could be obese by 2050, at an annual cost to the nation of around £50 billion per year [2]—substantially underestimates the scale of the unfolding obesity crisis, the College of Contemporary Health is working with the wider policy community to develop a whole systems map of the obesity crisis and the potential responses.☜F1CEB7
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Cognitive bias
Cognitive bias☜Cognitive biases are patterns of deviation in judgment, in which inferences about other people and situations are drawn in an illogical fashion.[1]☜FF4888
■
Recency effect
Recency effect☜People tend to overweight recent events in considering the probability of future events. ☜FF4888
□
Availability heuristic
Availability heuristic☜People tend to overweight data that comes easily to mind, which is to say vivid (extreme) and recent examples.☜FF4888
□
Bandwagon effect
Bandwagon effect☜People tend to believe that something is a better idea if a lot of other people are doing it.☜FF4888
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Beneffectance
Beneffectance☜People tend to view success as a result of their own actions, while they view failures as having been due to factors largely outside of their control.☜FF4888
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Confirmation bias
Confirmation bias☜The tendency to look for data that confirms your theory, rather than data that falsifies it. ☜FF4888
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Hyperbolic discounting
Hyperbolic discounting☜People value small short-term payoffs more than much higher long-term payoffs.☜FF4888
□
Information cascade
Information cascade☜An information cascade occurs where people dismiss their individual instincts and personal data and base their decisions on the choices made by previous decision makers—and their decisions in turn influence every subsequent person to do the same.☜FF4888
□
Optimistic bias
Optimistic bias☜People tend to be overconfident about their own abilities and the outcome of their plans.☜FF4888
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Overconfidence bias
Overconfidence bias☜People are too confident in the accuracy of their predictions.☜FF4888
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Promotion of people with short-term, action bias
Promotion of people with short-term, action bias☜People promoted to run top companies are typically selected for the ability to deliver immediate targets; this focus often makes them poorly equipped to take the more distanced, historical perspective necessary to spot the long-term trouble brewing.☜FF4888
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Graph of this discussion
Graph of this discussion☜Click this to see the whole debate, excluding comments, in graphical form☜dcdcdc
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David Price
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Entry date (GMT):
9/10/2014 9:42:00 AM
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9/10/2014 9:42:00 AM
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