Forecasts are improved by having independent sources of information
Crowdsourcing can provide more independent sources of information
Forecasts are generally improved by having independent sources of information. Patrick McSharry et al have shown that twitter feeds can improve forecasts of box office revenue. In addition,public-private partnerships like the Global Earthquake Model are using crowd-sourcing to collect data to assess hazard, exposure and vulnerability when constructing catastrophe models.
There are also many reasons to develop index-based insurance products based on crowd-sourcing and this could have large potential (McSharry, The Role of Scientific Modelling and Insurance in Providing Innovative Solutions forManaging the Risk of Natural Disasters, In PreventingDisaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change”, Editor Zinta Zommers,Springer, New York ,2014).