S. 3992 would authorize the Secretary of Homeland Security to grant conditional
nonimmigrant status to certain unauthorized residents in the country. Individuals with
conditional nonimmigrant status could lawfully live and work in the United States and
would be eligible for some refundable tax credits, Social Security, and Medicare benefits,
assuming they meet other program requirements. In addition, the bill would make
conditional nonimmigrants eligible for federal student loans.
S. 3992 would affect federal revenues in a number of ways. The increase in authorized
workers would affect individual and corporate income taxes, as well as social insurance
taxes. On balance, those changes would increase revenues by $2.3 billion over 10 years,
according to estimates provided by the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT).
Newly authorized workers also would be eligible for some refundable tax credits (included
in the spending total below).
CBO estimates that enacting S. 3992 would increase net direct spending by $912 million
over the 2011-2020 period. That amount reflects changes in spending for refundable tax
credits, Social Security, Medicare, student loans, and the Department of Homeland
Security (DHS). DHS would charge fees to certify legal status under the bill. Because
DHS’s costs for implementing the bill would be covered by those fees, CBO estimates that
implementation by DHS would have no significant impact on spending subject to
appropriation. CBO has not estimated other potential effects on discretionary spending, but
any such effects would probably be small.
Pay-as-you-go procedures apply because enacting the legislation would affect direct
spending and revenues. CBO and JCT estimate that enacting the bill would reduce deficits
by about $1.4 billion over the 2011-2020 period. That result reflects an increase in
on-budget deficits of about $1.4 billion over that period and a decrease in off-budget
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deficits of about $2.8 billion over the same period. Only the on-budget effects are counted
for purposes of enforcing the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010.
Although the legislation would not have a large impact on deficits over the 2011-2020
period, the eventual conversion of some of the conditional nonimmigrants to legal
permanent resident (LPR) status after 2020 would lead to significant increases in spending
for the federal health insurance exchanges, Medicaid, and the Supplemental Nutrition
Assistance Program (SNAP). Pursuant to section 311 of the Concurrent Resolution on the
Budget for Fiscal Year 2009 (S. Con. Res. 70), CBO estimates that the bill would increase
projected deficits by more than $5 billion in at least one of the four consecutive 10-year
periods starting in 2021.
This bill contains no intergovernmental mandates as defined in the Unfunded Mandates
Reform Act (UMRA). Some state and local colleges and universities may experience
increased enrollment as a result of this bill, but any associated costs would not result from
intergovernmental mandates. S. 3992 also contains no private-sector mandates as defined
in UMRA.