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Visualizing the Romney Tax Debate
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Visualizing the Romney Tax Debate *º
Romney's plan stated *º
But does it compute? *º
Yes - it does compute *º
The cited studies *
Brill article *
► Brill - small is enough *
► Brill - what about capital formation *
► Obamacare inclusion *
► The critics challenge *º
Diamond simulation *
► Assumes revenue neutrality *º
► Growth estimate 1 - Diamond study *º
► Labor force analysis *
Dubay paper *
► Ruling out "step up" *
► The critics challenge *º
Entin and McBride simulation
Feldstein article *
► 3. Feldstein *º
Feldstein revision *
► Elasticity too high *º
► Figure is arbitrary *
► Revised Feldstein *º
Jensen article *
► Figure is arbitrary *
► The critics challenge *º
Rosen paper *
► 1. Rosen *º
► Ignores growth potential *º
► Rosen - Zero result unwarranted *
No - it does not compute *º
The TPC case *º
Growth effect claim *º
Ignores growth potential *º
Growth-supportive studies *º
1. Rosen *º
Growth estimate 1 - Diamond study *º
Labor force analysis *
Conflicting assumptions *º
Revenue effect unclear º
Objections to Diamond *º
Assumes revenue neutrality *º
Assumes full employment º
◄ Alan Auerbach *º
Growth estimate 2 - Romney Quartet *º
Misinterprets Auerbach studies *
Studied tax proposals different
◄ Alan Auerbach *º
Non-growth objections *
Micro-behavioral offsets *º
Revenue baseline understated *
2. Entin/McBride *º
Rate of invention
Broadening effects
Choice of model *
The right choice
◄ Conclusion is robust *º
3. Feldstein *º
Addressed objections *
Elasticity too high *º
High income threshold *
► Figure is arbitrary *
Liability step-up
Marginal rate too high
Revised Feldstein *º
► 3. Feldstein *º
Unaddressed objections *
Micro-behavioral offsets º
Use of 2009 baseline
◄ Revised Feldstein *º
The TPC defends *º
Conclusion is robust *º
► 2. Entin/McBride *º
Growth effect small *
Brill and Viard study *
Brill - what about capital formation *
CBO and JCT studies *º
Brill - small is enough *
Modelling difficulties *
Rosen - Zero result unwarranted *
Available savings claim *
TPC conservative *
Most benefit low/middle *º
► Figure is arbitrary *
Need for excess savings *º
Political resistance º
The critics challenge *º
Life insurance concessions *
Municipal bond concession *
Savings overstated *
Ruling out "step up" *
OMB revenue estimate *
Assumes acrrued gains taxed on death *
Corrected figure?
Dubay responds *
Cost-of-cuts claim *
Obamacare inclusion *
High income threshold *
Figure is arbitrary *
A different plan *
◄ Most benefit low/middle *º
◄ High income threshold *
The protagonists *º
Group 1 - Romney critics *
Dylan Mathews *º
► Assumes full employment º
► Assumes revenue neutrality *º
► Objections to Diamond *º
► Political resistance º
Adam Looney (TPC) *º
► Brill and Viard study *
► Conclusion is robust *º
► Growth effect small *
Economaniac *
► Conflicting assumptions *º
Ezra Klein *º
► Micro-behavioral offsets º
► Misinterprets Auerbach studies *
► Political resistance º
► Studied tax proposals different
► Use of 2009 baseline
Jim Tanksersley º
Josh Barro *º
► A different plan *
► Assumes acrrued gains taxed on death *
► Broadening effects
► Life insurance concessions *
► Micro-behavioral offsets º
► Micro-behavioral offsets *º
► Most benefit low/middle *º
► Need for excess savings *º
► Obamacare inclusion *
► Revenue baseline understated *
► Savings overstated *
President Barrack Obama *º
► Visualizing the Romney Tax Debate *º
Samuel Brown (TPC) *
► Brill and Viard study *
► Conclusion is robust *º
► Growth effect small *
William Gale (TPC) *º
► Brill and Viard study *
► Conclusion is robust *º
► Growth effect small *
Group 2 - Romney defenders *
Alan Viard *º
► Brill - what about capital formation *
Alex Brill *º
► Brill - small is enough *
► Brill - what about capital formation *
► Brill article *
► Obamacare inclusion *
► The critics challenge *º
Curtis Dubay *º
► Dubay paper *
► Dubay responds *
► Ruling out "step up" *
► The critics challenge *º
Glen Hubbard *º
Governor Mitt Romney *º
► Visualizing the Romney Tax Debate *º
Gregory Mankiw *º
Harvey Rosen *º
► 1. Rosen *º
► Ignores growth potential *º
► Rosen - Zero result unwarranted *
► Rosen paper *
John Diamond *º
► Assumes revenue neutrality *º
► Diamond simulation *
► Growth estimate 1 - Diamond study *º
► Labor force analysis *
► Political resistance º
John McCormack *º
► Brill - small is enough *
► The critics challenge *º
John Taylor *º
Kevin Hassett º
Martin Feldstein *º
► 3. Feldstein *º
► Elasticity too high *º
► Feldstein article *
► Feldstein revision *
► Figure is arbitrary *
► Revised Feldstein *º
Matt Jensen *º
► Figure is arbitrary *
► Jensen article *
► The critics challenge *º
Group 3 - The others *
Alan Auerbach *º
► Misinterprets Auerbach studies *
► Misinterprets Auerbach studies *
► Objections to Diamond *º
► Objections to Diamond *º
Congressional Budget Office *º
► CBO and JCT studies *º
Joint Committee on Taxation *º
► CBO and JCT studies *º
Office of Management and Budget *º
► Assumes acrrued gains taxed on death *
► OMB revenue estimate *
Debate summation *º
Peter Baldwin's view º
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