RWJF Symposium – June 2012



Our reasons for gathering
  • To explore alternative scenarios for health and health care futures in the U.S. in 2032 with participants bringing diverse perspectives.
  • To share a vision that represents the aspirations guiding the symposium.
  • To agree on a small number of high value opportunities that participants can recommend to the nation based on the exploration of alternative futures. Read the Recommendations >>
  • To identify specific actions, programs, and organizations aligned with the high value opportunities for improving the nation’s health and health care.


Focus
  • We expand the discussions to address health as well as health care. Though health care at its best fully supports health, we need to understand how and where health is distinct from health care. 
  • We seek multiple perspectives informed by the different knowledge bases of nurses, doctors, social scientists, biomedical scientists, spiritual healers, policy makers and business people. 
  • The nation most needs confidence that there is a way forward for health and health care. The integrated view of health and health care explored at the meeting will speak to the future as well as what we need to do today.
  • Personal objectives in the room (described in the participants’ survey) align with the objectives set for the Symposium: Money and economic limits are viewed as the principal drivers for health care. For health, the key driver appears to be behavior for many people, particularly as it relates to chronic disease, obesity and life expectancy. Other drivers identified are systems biology and other new knowledge that will become embedded in technology systems to support health.
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Poster created by David Price on 5:39 PM 14 June 2012 GMT

Alternative Scenarios for Health & Health Care in 2032


Four Scenarios
  1. Slow Reform, Better Health
  2. Health If You Can Get It
  3. Big Data, Big Health Gains
  4. The New Ethics of Health
What will health and health care look like in the year 2032? We'll consider four alternative futures: one in the Zone of Conventional Expectation; one in the Zone of Growing Desperation; and two in the Zone of High Aspiration.

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Scenario 1: Slow Reform, Better Health



Scenario 1 describes the expectable future of health and health care in the U.S. out to the year 2032 – i.e. the “zone of conventional expectation,” reflecting the extrapolation of known trends, the expectable future.

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Scenario 2: Health If You Can Get It



Scenario 2 describes a “zone of growing desperation” – involving a set of plausible health challenges.

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Scenario 3: Big Data, Big Health Gains



Scenario 3 is the first of two scenarios in the “zone of high aspiration” in which a critical mass of stakeholders gathers to pursue visionary strategies and achieves surprising success.

Open Scenario 3 >>

Scenario 4: The New Ethics of Health



Scenario 4 is the second of the two scenarios in the “zone of high aspiration” in which a critical mass of stakeholders gathers to pursue visionary strategies and achieves surprising success.

Open Scenario 4 >>