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Which Political Party is Greenest? Issue1 #57802

Are you ready for the greenest election campaign yet?

Environmental issues are unlikely to turn this election, but they could yet play a more central role than many commentators think

BusinessGreen, James Murray, 07 Apr 2010

James Murray

And they're off. The greenest British election campaign in history is underway – and yes, you did read that right.

If you ask experts in the low carbon economy if they think we are in for a particularly green election they will roll their eyes, issue a weary sigh, and laugh – probably all at the same time. With all political commentators worth their salt predicting that the tightest election in a generation will be fought almost entirely on the twin battlefields of economic stewardship and leadership credentials, no one is expecting much of a debate over the future of the low carbon economy.

But that does not necessarily mean the environment will be entirely condemned to the sidelines and it seems inevitable that there will be more focus on climate change, clean technologies and local environmental issues than at any election in living memory.

Unfortunately, the title of greenest election is akin to winning the title of world's fastest snail. The bar has been set so low that simply getting the leaders of the three main parties to answer a couple of questions on their policies for supporting green businesses would represent substantial progress on previous elections. But at times those within the low carbon economy are reminiscent of a runner at the 10 mile mark in an ultra marathon: they are so daunted by the distance they still have to travel they forget that they have already come quite a long way. This is the first post-Copenhagen election, and regardless of polls suggesting voter interest in environmental issues is on the wane it is still far higher than it was five years ago.

The understandable frustration among green business leaders centres on the fact that no party has developed a truly co-ordinated and compelling low carbon proposition. Jeremy Leggett was right when he observed yesterday that a party that offered a genuine Green New Deal and did not even talk about climate change, instead focusing solely on economic and commercial opportunities, would find itself onto a vote winner.

None of the leading parties are offering this vision to satisfy the UK's low carbon pioneers, but Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems are all likely to include a number of interesting green proposals in their manifestos. Green loans for homes and businesses, a low carbon investment bank, feed-in tariffs, green jobs training, proposals to streamline planning regulations, plans to encourage community investment in wind farms, and commitments to drive international climate change negotiations should all feature in the three main parties' electoral pitches.

The extent to which these ideas enjoy air time over the next four weeks depends on that old political cliché of "events, dear boy, events".

I have a hunch that Ed Miliband will have stamped his environmental credentials all over the Labour manifesto and that he will push for climate change policies to form a central part of the campaign.

This has less to do with the strength of Labour's policies (although they are far better than they were even two years ago) and more to do with the fact this is one of only a handful of areas where they could discomfit the Tories.

For the past few months Miliband has been chiding Cameron over his apparent reluctance to endorse the UK's existing renewable energy targets and distance himself from Ken Clarke and those other Conservative MPs who clearly object to onshore wind farms. It seems clear that this line of attack will intensify and it already seems to be working among the renewable energy industry, where privately there are serious concerns that a change of government could result in unwelcome disruption to the UK's renewable energy policy.

There is also Labour polling that has shown that one of the main criticisms of the Conservative leader still dates back to the incident when he cycled to work with his driver bringing his briefcase along behind him. As a result we could see Labour repeatedly question the sincerity of the Conservatives' green commitments in an attempt to raise wider questions about the credibility of the reinvented Tory brand.

The Conservatives would have a pretty robust defence in place to repel such an attack given that there is not much to choose between the two parties' stated green policies. They will also argue that Labour's environmental record has been pretty patchy over the past 13 years and will claim with some validity that they were quicker to support proposals for feed-in tariffs, green loans, and a low carbon infrastructure bank. But such a defence will require the entire Party to be on message. All it will take is for one errant Tory backbencher to claim that all wind farms should be banned (and that Lord Lawson is right and climate change is a hoax) for the environment to suddenly become a front page issue.

A host of other wild cards could also push the environment up the electoral agenda. Caroline Lucas' strong performance in Brighton, where she remains genuinely hopeful of becoming the Greens' first ever MP, will guarantee column inches, while the announcement of any further investment in low-carbon technology similar to GE's and Siemens' plans for new wind turbine plants could provide a boost to Labour's ideas for a more interventionist industrial policy. Similarly, the prospect of petrol prices hitting a record high could stimulate a debate about green transport policy – albeit one the main political leaders will want to shy away from.

None of this is to pretend that the environment will prove the defining theme of the election campaign (except perhaps in Brighton), but it will play a more central role than ever before. As a result, businesses keen to understand how the post-election low-carbon policy landscape will shape up would be well advised to keep a very close eye on the campaign over the next four weeks. It promises to be an eventful ride.

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